奥运会影响研究：经济和旅游

【作者】 付磊；

【导师】 张广瑞；

【作者基本信息】 中国社会科学院研究生院 ， 产业经济学， 2002， 博士

【摘要】 产生于19世纪末期的现代奥林匹克运动已经发展成为人类有史以来出于和平目的规模最大的活动。进入20世纪80年代，奥运会的商业化趋势逐渐明朗，奥运会的经济价值(包括旅游价值)日益凸现。那么，奥运会是通过什么机制影响主办地经济的?如何分析奥运会的经济影响?奥运会经济影响的效果为正还是为负?奥运会的经济影响效果体现在哪些方面?奥运会经济影响的效果有多大?奥运会的吸引力和自身特性必然伴生着旅游活动，那么，奥运会如何对旅游产生影响?奥运会对旅游增长是否具有促进作用?如果有，这种促进作用有多大?旅游管理机构如何利用奥运会来促进旅游的发展?这些都是论文所要研究和力图解答的问题。 论文分为三大部分：基础理论分析、奥运会经济影响研究和奥运会旅游影响研究。 节事和节事旅游原理是奥运会经济和旅游研究的基础，论文首先探讨了节事的有关范畴和分析的一般框架，并且结合奥运会的自身特点，认为奥运会是一种特殊的、超大的标志性节事。 根据节事经济影响原理、宏观经济学有关理论和奥运会本身的特征，论文探讨和构建了奥运会的经济影响机制，认为奥运会首先作用于主办地的支出、形象和技术，然后通过经济系统中的互动机制最终体现为产出、收入、就业和经济增长方面的变化。奥运会经济影响的效果取决于主办地宏观经济环境的性质和条件，当然，奥运会的组织方案和主办地的主观努力也很重要。根据奥运会经济影响机制，论文探讨了奥运会经济影响的分析方法，例如乘数分析、成本—收益分析等。 以往的奥运会经济影响研究以案例研究和实证研究为主，这些研究成果为本文提供了宝贵的借鉴和信息来源。论文对1992年巴塞罗纳奥运会、1996年亚特兰大奥运会和2000年悉尼奥运会的经济影响进行了案例研究，并结合其他相关研究成果和统计信息，对奥运会经济影响的效果进行了分析和综述，研究表明：奥运会经营赢利、净经济效应为正；奥运会经济影响的绝对数值较大；奥运会经济影响的强度数值不大；奥运会受益产业比较集中；奥运会促进主办城市增加基础设施投资；奥运会经济影响效果存在着差异性。 根据旅游的相关原理，结合奥运会旅游的特殊性，论文探讨和构建了奥运会的旅游影响机制，认为奥运会是作为旅游吸引物和形象塑造者并通过相关的活动(例如改善基础设施、旅游促销、媒体宣传等)作用于主办地旅游系统的，最终的影响效果主要表现为新增旅游者数量、旅游业经营状况和主办地旅游形象三个指标。 论文以案例研究的形式分析了2000年悉尼奥运会的旅游效应，并介绍和评析了澳大利亚旅游委员会的奥运旅游战略。根据相关研究成果和统计信息，论文对20世纪80年代以来历届奥运会的入境旅游效应进行了比较研究，并总结出奥运会主办地入境旅游的四种变化模式。关于奥运会旅游影响的分析表明：奥运会的入境旅游效应比较明显，相比之下国内旅游效应并不突出；奥运会旅游活动主要集中在主办城市／地区，区域扩散效果不突出；从数值上看，奥运会旅游效应的强度并没有人们想象的那样大；奥运会对主办地形象具有比较好的改善效果；对奥运会旅游影响的预测应该保持理性。 根据往届奥运会的经验和教训，参考关于北京2008年奥运会的有关研究，论文提出要理性看待2008年奥运会经济影响效应的观点，并且认为中国旅游业应该利用2008年奥运会进行形象塑造和旅游促销，充分把握好奥运会带来的历史机遇，提升自身的整体素质。 以往关于奥运会经济和旅游影响的研究成果非常丰富，但总体上比较分散，相关性较差，理论基础的多样化也在一定程度上影响了研究的严谨性和系统性。从节事和节事旅游的角度出发，根据有关宏观经济理论和一般性旅游理论，论文探讨了奥运会经济和旅游影响的基本机制和分析方法，并对往届奥运会经济和旅游影响的效果进行了比较和综述，为今后的研究提供了可供参考的思路和研究起点，这是论文的理论意义所在。 通过理论研究和实证分析，论文得出了几个初步性结论。总的来说，奥运会经济影响和旅游影响是因地而异、因事而异和困时而异的，相应地，奥运会的主办方式或战略行动也应该是因地制宜、因事制宜和因时制宜的。因止匕，北京2008年奥运会成功的关键在于充分借鉴和吸取往届奥运会的经验与教训，并且真正举办出自己的特色来，希望本论文的研究能够为此提供参考和借鉴。更多还原

【Abstract】 Born in the end of l9th centUry the modem Olympic Movement has become the biggest eventwith peaceful purposes. Since early l980s, the commercialization of the OlyTnpic Games has beena marked tendency, and economic benefit (including tourism) has become one of the main targetsfor the Olympic biding and hosting activities. Hosting the Olympic Games has been regarded as auniversa1 panacea for faled economic development policies. But what is the mechanism for theOlyInpic Games to impact the economy of the hosting cities? How to analyze these impactS? Is thenet effect positive or negative? What indicators could reflect these effects? How great is the degreeof these impacts? The Olympic Games’ attractiveness and particular characteristics make therelated tourism and travel appeap and induce tourists. What is the mechanism for the OlympicGames to dripact tourism? Whether the Olympic Games could promote the tourism in hostingcities to grow? If so, how significant is the OlyInpic effect for the tourism? How the tourism couldtake the Olpopic Gams as the catalyst to improve tourism development? These are the questionsthat this dissertation tries to answerThis dissertation has three parts, including fundamental theory analysis, economic effectsstUdy and tourism effects studyPutting the event and event tourism as the theoretic base of related st’Udies, this dissertationfirstly summarizes the concept, classification and general framework of event, and then states theOlyInpics Games as a special, mega and hallmark event.Based on the basic of event’s economic impacts and related economics theories, thisdissertation explores and builds the economic impacting procedure of the Olytnpic Games. TheOlympic Games bring changes to the expenditUres, images and technology firstly then by thedWic procedure Anpact the outPuts, earnngs, employTnent and groWth of the economy ofhosting cities or nations. The final effects depend upon the featUres and conditions of the overalleconomic system, while the planning and strategic measures made by the hosting cities or nationsare also very haportant. This dissehation explores the methods to ana1yze the economic effects ofthe OlyTnpic Games, including the mu1tiplier stUdy and cost-benefit stUdy.Most of the fOrmer OlyInpic economic researches are case st’Udies and experiential stUdies,which provide valuable references and data. This dissertation intrOduces and evaluates the relatedcase stUdies on the OlyTnpic Games’ economic impacts of Barcelona l992, Atlanta l996 andSydney 2000. Using the former stUdies results and related statistics data, this dissertation makes acomparative analysis on the precedent Olympic Games’ economic impactS. The conclusion showsthat the net effects of the OlyInpic Games’ economic impacts are positive. The mathematicalresults of the effects are great. The strength or degree of the Olympic Games’ economic impact isno as great as people expected. The benefits brought by the OlyTnpic Games concentrate onspecific industries. The Olympic Games promote the urban infrastrUctUres of the hosting cities.Based on the theories of event tourism, this dissertation explores and builds the procedures ofthe OIympic Games’ impacts on tourism. The Olympic Games impact the tourism system astourism attraction and driage-maker, by the related activities such as adding new facilities, tourismpromotion and media exposure. The final effects are reflected in tourist atrivals, tourism operationoutcomes and the images of the hosting cities or nations.The research and data on Sydney 2000 are relatively substantial and available. Using Sydneyl1l2000 as the case, this dissertation makes an experiental stUdy of itS effects on Anstrian totrismand Anstralian TOdrism Cotnmission’s OlyTnpic TOurism Strategy. According the former stUdiesand statistics, this dissertaion make a comparative studies of the Obopic Games’ effects oninbound tourism, domestic tourism, the regional disper更多还原