中国加入WTO后的汇率制度选择

【作者】 孙学工；

【导师】 张蕴岭；

【作者基本信息】 中国社会科学院研究生院 ， 世界经济， 2002， 博士

【摘要】 自上个世纪80年代以来，一轮新的全球化浪潮开始兴起，各国间的贸易与经济联系不断加强，资本的流动性大大提高。全球化在加速经济增长的同时，也给各国特别是发展中国家的经济稳定带来了新的挑战，自上个世纪90年代以来，在新兴市场地区中频频发生了各类货币与金融危机，给这些国家的经济发展带来了沉重的打击。汇率制度在这些危机的发生与发展中都扮演了重要的角色，危机反过来又使这些国家的汇率制度难以维持而崩溃，结果又进一步加重了危机的影响。 在进入新世纪之初，中国在经历了二十几年的改革开放后正式成为了世界贸易组织的成员。这标志着中国的改革开放将达到一个新的高度，中国将比以往更快更深地融入到世界经济体系之中去。这无疑将大大促进中国经济的进一步发展，但也无可避免地会把一些新的不稳定性因素带入中国经济之中，支撑中国汇率制度稳定的一些重要条件在入世后可能会逐步丧失。为保持国民经济持续稳定发展的态势，中国在加入世贸后对汇率制度作出一些调整和改革是必要的，本文将是在对汇率制度与理论演化分析的基础上，对现行的汇率制度的利弊得失进行评价，提出其应改进的方面。并在仔细分析加入WTO后对决定汇率制度选择各因素影响的基础上，提出中国汇率制度改革的方案与过渡安排。 全文的结构如下，第一章主要介绍了汇率制度的分类及其演化过程，指出了导致汇率制度不断变化的重要原因是其与经济发展之间的内在冲突和一个国家内外目标相对重要性的变化。在这一章中还指出了从最早的金本位制开始，发展中国家在汇率制度选择问题上就面临着与发达国家不同的问题。第二章对现有的比较庞杂的汇率理论依历史与逻辑的顺序进行了整理和梳理，将它们归结为固定汇率制与浮动汇率制之争、最优货币区理论、Mundell-Fleming模型不可能三角形和新开放经济宏观经济学、中间汇率体制的设计—从汇率目标区理论到BBC法则、货币危机理论与汇率制度选择的边角解、发展中国家的汇率选择理论以及决定汇率制度选择因素的实证研究等七个方面，对这些理论各自的解释能力与存在的缺陷进行了分析，指出汇率制度选择理论与汇率制度现实间总是存在着的不相容问题从根本上说是源于汇率制度的信誉度与灵活性不可兼得这一深层次内在矛盾，因而对汇率制度的选择很大程度上是对信誉度和灵活性的选择，一个经济体只有根据自身对信誉度与灵活性的要求来安排汇率制度，才能更好地保持宏观经济的稳定，自身也才具有可持续性。第三章转向对中国当前汇率制度的分析，在简略概述其发展演化过程后，对当前我国汇率制度安排的成败得失进行了评价，指出其基本适应了中国改革开放的需要，在中国避免东亚金融危机中发挥了重要作用，但现存汇率制度在效率、运行成本、对货币政策自主性的影响以及风险累积上仍存在着缺陷，这些缺陷在经济进一步开放条件下有可能成为新的不稳定性因素。第四章分析了中国加入WTO后引起的贸易、资本流动和国际收支的变化以及按照WTO规则进行的金融服务贸易自由化对当前汇率制度产生的种种影响，得出这些影响都不利于当前较为僵硬的汇率体制、中国需要增大汇率制度的灵活性以应付以上方面的变化或通过以上方面传递的国际冲击的结论。第五章讨论了中国加入WTO后具体的汇率制度选择和安排问题，在分析了需要和现实约束条件的基础上，提出了一个汇率制度与货币政策体系联动的安排方案，汇率制度采用一篮子盯住爬行的带有区间的有管理浮动汇率制，以赋予货币政策足够的灵活性来各类来自国内外的真实冲击。同时实行货币政策的通货膨胀目标制，以增大自主性的货币政策的信誉度并减少货币性冲击来源。这一章还讨论了保持汇率稳定的政策安排，提出了建立冲销干预、继续保持一定的资本控制和通过国际货币与金融合作等等多种方式来保持汇率的基本稳定。最后针对向新汇率制度的过渡提出了一个10年的转换方案，对汇率制度安排的各个方面如何演进和衔接提出建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 A new wave of globalization, well under way since surged in 1980s, has been strengthening the economic and trade links between countries. Goods and capital move across the border much easily today than it did ever in the contemporary history. Globalization, on the one hand, delivered the higher economic growth to the countries involved. But, on the other hand, it also brought severe challenges to the globalizers, especially those from the developing world, evidenced by high frequent currency and financial crises in emerging market countries. Developing countries increasingly found itself in a difficult situation to defend a stable fixed exchange rate regime. It seems that if developing globalizers resist the change of its exchange rate regime, the crisis would do it for them.China is among those globalizers from developing world but luckily escaped the crisis, due largely that China followed its own agenda of opening-up. But China’s accession to WTO marks a new turn in its way of handling globalization. China has to follow the WTO rule as well as other international practices, exposing its economy to volatile external world. China will quickly find itself in the similar situation of crisis-inflicted developing countries, given the rigidity nature of China’s current exchange rate regime. The reform is inevitable. This study aims to shed some light on China’s exchange rate regime choice in the context of WTO membership.The dissertation is organized as follows. The first chapter will introduce the classification of exchange rate regime and how the exchange rate regime evolved overtime. One finding is that the exiting exchange rate regime always did not serve well the need of economy, thus may trace back to the conflict between internal and external goal of a country. In this chapter, the author also argues that the developing countries, or peripheral ones, faced quite different constraints in their exchange rate regime choice, compared to developed core countries. The summery and review of exiting exchange rate regime choice theory literature are done in second chapter. Among other things, the fixed and floating exchange rate dispute, optimum currency area, open economy macroeconomic model, design of intermediate exchange rate regime, currency crisis model and corner solution, exchange rate regime choice in developing countries and the positive study on exchange rate regime are discussed intensively. One finding is that the mainstream exchange rate regime literatures are always critical to the exitingprevailing exchange rate regime and resort to ever proved unsuccessful regimes to cure the problem in sight. The pundits in this field long have been inflicted by the dilemma of that an exchange rate regime cannot deliver both credibility and flexibility at the same time. Although the existing literature failed to provide clear-cut criterion for choice, it did develop some tips that would be useful when the choice has to be made. Third chapter turns to the evaluation of China’s current exchange rate regime. Both the merits and drawbacks of current regime have been identified. One finding is that the current regime, which did help China weather the storm of Asian financial crisis, may not survive in a more integrated economy, due to its low efficiency, high cost and tying too tight the hand of monetary policy. The 4th chapter examines the effect of China’s WTO accession on the stability of current exchange regime through the channel of trade, capital flow, balance of international payment and financial service liberalization provided the commitment China made during the accession would be fulfilled without discount. One of conclusions drawn from the analysis is that flexibility of China’s exchange rate regime should be increased to cushion the external shocks whose effects tend to amplify in new environment. The fifth chapter comes to touch upon concrete policy issue-the design of China’s exchange rate regime and related institutional arrangements. After balancing the needs and constraints, a flexibility更多还原