【作者】 冀鸿兰；

【导师】 朝伦巴根；

【作者基本信息】 内蒙古农业大学 ， 农业水土工程， 2002， 博士

【摘要】 冰冻是寒冷地区普遍存在的一种自然现象，而凌汛则是河道里的冰凌对水流的阻力作用而引起的一种涨水现象。河流中的冰凌不仅直接影响到冬季的航运、交通、引水发电、给排水等水利工程建设事业，而且当冰凌严重阻塞河道时，往往会导致凌洪泛滥成灾，给人民生命财产带来重大损失。 黄河流域面临两类洪水的威胁，即暴雨洪水和冰凌洪水。冰凌洪水突发性强、涨势猛、持续时间长、冰凌运行规律较难掌握，产生的灾害有时更甚于暴雨洪水。黄河凌汛主要发生在石嘴山至头道拐的内蒙河段和下游的山东河段。黄河上游的内蒙古河段，每年冬春季节都有不同程度的冰害发生，较大范围的淹没损失平均二年一次。由于近几年来气温的变化、人类活动、河床冲淤等流域环境的变化，使得凌汛的威胁不仅依然存在，而且发生冰害的河段有所增多，影响范围随之扩大。 黄河内蒙段几乎每年产生凌汛，这是由于它的特殊的地理位置、水文气象条件、河道特性决定的。首先，内蒙段地处黄河流域最北端，海拔高程千米以上，河道流向自南向北，其上游甘肃、宁夏段温度高，内蒙段温度低，故河道流凌封冻由内蒙段溯源而上，解冻开河则由甘肃、宁夏段逐渐向下发展。其次，内蒙段处于内陆地带，离海洋距离远，暖湿气流难以到达，常为蒙古高压控制，呈典型的大陆性气候，年降水量少，夏季盛热短暂，冬季严寒漫长，河流结冰期长达4-5个月，大部分为稳定封冻河段。第三，内蒙段成几字型大弯曲，其间浅滩弯道叠出，坡度变缓，逶迤曲折，河中多夹心滩，分流窜沟，解冻开河时，常在河道的曲湾或山宽变窄的狭窄段产生凌汛。因此，在研究影响河流冰情的热力因素、动力因素、河势因素的基础上，进行凌汛成因分析并对封河日期、开河日期的预报模型做深入探讨，既有理论价值，也有应用意义。 本论文首先回顾黄河全流域的历史发展和水文现状，其次对影响黄河内蒙段凌汛的三大因素(热力因素、动力因素、河势因素)进行详细的理论分析，接着又运用大连理工大学陈守煜教授提出的中长期水文预报模糊聚类理论与模型、模糊模式识别神经网络预测模型与方法对黄河内蒙段沿线各站的封河日期、开河日期进行模拟预报，精度高，结果令人满意，最后列出在论文编写过程中遇到的各种疑难点与读者共同探讨，期望读者反馈宝贵信息，以使后续的研究工作更有深度与广度。更多还原

【Abstract】 Freezing is a general phenomenon in the cold area. Ice flood is a rise of water when ice is hindered in river course. Ice will not only influence shipping, transportation, hydraulic power, water and sewage, but also lead to ice flood and cause huge losses when ice blocks the river course severely.There are two kinds of flood: rain gush flood and ice flood. Ice flood is sudden, speedy, permanent, disastrous. It exists in the Inner Mongolia Reach and in the ShanDong Reach of the Yellow River. Every year ice flood is frequent in the Inner Mongolia Reach. In recent years it is more severe because of temperature changes, mankind activities, scouring and silting.The special geographical position, hydrometeorological condition, river course characteristics are main reasons for ice flood. Firstly, Inner Mongolia Reach lies in the top north of the Yellow River. It flows from south to north. The temperature of upper reach is higher than that of lower reach, therefore, the river freezes up from lower reach to upper reach and breaks up from upper reach to lower reach. Secondly, Inner Mongolia Reach lies in inland area. It is far from ocean and controlled by Mongolia high-pressure. It belongs to the continental climate. Annual rainfall is little. Summer is hot and short. Winter is cold and long. Ice period remains four or five months. Thirdly, there are many river bends and shoals in the Inner Mongolia Reach. Ice flood will occur in these places at the break-up time. It is valuable and meaningful to make factor analysis for ice flood and model research for freeze-up time and break-up time.The thesis reviews the historic and present situations of the Yellow River, makes factor analysis for ice flood, simulates and forecasts freeze-up time and break-up time on the basis of fuzzy set theory. The results are reasonable and precise. In the end, the knotty problems are given to obtain feedback information for the future researches.更多还原