【作者】 王德文；

【导师】 钟甫宁； 黄季焜；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 农业经济及管理， 2000， 博士

【摘要】 双轨制度是中国从计划经济向市场经济过渡所采取的制度安排。与“大爆炸”改革模式相比，它具有渐进性、边际性、路径依赖性和可逆性等改革特征，同时，这种制度变迁过程也是政府、生产者、消费者三者之间权利和义务相互交易的过程。虽然它具有较高的实施成本，但是，通过帕雷托改进方式减少了摩擦成本，从而使中国的改革“小步快走”顺利而成功。 双轨制度曾广泛地存在于中国经济各个领域。在工业领域，最为突出代表的是钢材、电力、天然气等生产资料生产和流通领域的双轨存在。在农业领域，最为突出的代表为粮食生产和流通领域的双轨存在。经历20多年的市场化改革之后，中国所有工业品和绝大多数农产品的市场已经全部放开，但是，粮食领域双轨制度的依然存在。这种存在不仅反应出粮食流通体制改革的复杂性，而且也说明了粮食流通体制改革的特殊性。可是，相关的理论分析和实证分析不仅很少，而且有关双轨制度对粮食生产的影响也存在着不同看法。这种现象不仅无法帮助人们对这一制度变迁过程形成正确地认识，而且也不利于为深化粮食流通体制改革提供理论参考和政策建议。 本文以粮食生产和流通领域的双轨制度为研究对象，着重分析了双轨制度下的粮食定购数量分配、农户的粮食供给反应和市场干预政策效果等。全文共分八章。第一章简要介绍了本文的选题背景、选题依据、研究范围与主要目标等。第二章在简要回顾统购统销制度之后，对粮食双轨制度的产生与发展进行了全面阐述。同时，对用于本文的资料进行了处理和统计描述。第三章对有关文献进行了综述和评价。第四章阐述了不同层次的政府部门在粮食双轨制度中的地位和作用，并通过建立和运用粮食定购数量分配模型探讨了影响粮食定购数量分配的决定因素及其与政策目标之间的关系。第五章构造了双轨制度下的农户价格预期模型和粮食供给反应模型，并利用调查数据对模型中的假设进行了检验。第六章通过建立和运用双轨制度下粮食市场干预模型，分析了市场干预的效果和得失，并与有关国家进行了比较。第七章分析了双轨制度的终结条件、过渡方案和过渡时间，并对当前的粮食政策和农业政策进行了评价。第八章是全文总结，并简要说明了需要进一步深入研究的方向。 通过利用了3省（浙江省、江苏省、四川省）25个主产水稻的样本县的县级时间序列资料（1971-97年）进行实证分析，本文得出如下结论： 1、中央、省、县等不同层次的政府部门在粮食定购中的地位和作用是不同的。一般而言，粮食定购数量和定购价格是由中央政府制定，然后由上向下分解。粮食的定购数量在县与县之间是存在着极大差异，而定购价格在县与县之间差别不大。这说明，在定购数量和定购价格省级 工级微 岸两粮食双轨款级酸缓缓缓缓攀分级水平确定之后。省级赋府通常缓择定购数设分困作为主要政策工具来实＄％＄＠＆＄M＃。 2、1＄M＄T＄％＄＄＄＄kgh＆＠，＠＄＄＄＄g％＄＆＃A本。在赣够赚象严翻翻缓缓缓、城市赠箱净赚瑰荣个方级湖级确。 入级食定购政策在执行过程中具有以下几个特点；翡》魂簸净确实将缓纷效率放净赚摄像嵌 在粮食定购数设分配过程中将教少的定购数设分配给工业比较发达的要 将较多的定购数设分配给具有波自生产比较镜势的县 仅是。赔年代由于政策决警中给予够促安会较大的权重这求效率方援的考虑似乎被削弱了。脂》对审缓缓缓和湖摩方镇级籍学够权级要大子对摩签方镇的缓t 城市人级规模和城市居民签入收入水平确实影响到粮食定的数设分级 赋策选择给予了贫困输区关注；并镇过99 tta＠％ ＠＄k＄ff＆t％k＆＄＄＆＄K＄＆。＄＄kffi。＄＃＠土地资源禀赋对粮食定购数摄分配也存在签影响，但是。耕地级公似乎对粮食定购数设分配不起作用。侣》函我的对效缓个级残破廖瀚级”我及分以有廖款龄你用 但是。防科时问的缓移 由于城市居民收入水平的较快增长。以及部减财政负祖的压力。这种正向作盾在钢年代我来基本上不存在了。 4、＄＄＄t＄k＄娥＄飘 s＃＄＃＆＄＃ai＄＄。＄N＆＄对粮食产出的边际形响在认洲左右g 粮假定购数设对级食产出的边际影响大约在认＠到汉③之问 定购数设和定购价格对农户的供给的影响大致有三个方面；一是非演际生产放废 阈定购数设对粮食产出的彩揭是通过影湖粮食播种面积和单产来实现减 定购数计对粮食播种厚积有正向作用g 对粮食单产有负向作用。二是破策信号的导向作用。定购价格和定购数付通过影响邀户的价格预期对俄签产生正做作用。三是收入效应。定购价签和定购欧援通过读响农户的收入从而对农户的粮食生产和消费产生作用。 S。＠级粮食定湖和发价敢戴银困缓缓免于缓乔产和我输的方式并我有输舞镇定粮食审级够缓缓困g相反；级税翻腾安排有可赚存在放大市场价接波动的可能往 从图际经验角度看。革体实和印度尼西亚两国通过函后于预市输的方式确实这到了稳发市场的效展 认真总结两国更多还原

【Abstract】 Double-track system is an institutional arrangement adopted by China during its transition from planned economy to market economy. Compared with the 揃ig Bang? reforming model, it has the characteristics of gradualism, marginality, path- dependence and reversibility. This process of institutional change is an exchange of rights and obligations between government, producers, and consumers. Although the implementing costs were high, it reduced friction costs through Pareto Improvement and therefore brought about a successful and smooth economic growth in China. Double-track system widely existed in every sector of China抯 economy. The most typical ones in the industrial sector were in the production and marketing fields of means of production such as steel, electricity and natural gas. The most typical one in the agricultural sector was in the production and marketing fields of grains. After over 20 years of market-oriented reform, the markets of all industrial products and most agricultural products have been totally opened. The double-track system survived, however, in the production and marketing fields of grains, which reflects the complexity and uniqueness of this reform. Unfortunately, relevant theoretical and empirical studies on this topic were rarely done, and there have always been debates on the effects of double-track system on grain production, which made it difficult to correctly understand this process of institutional change, not to mention to put forward theoretical reference and policy recommendation for deepening the reform of grain marketing system. This paper focuses on the double-track system in the fields of grain production and marketing, and analyses quota allocation, farmers?grain supply response and the effects of market intervention. There are, all together, eight chapters. Chapter 1 briefly introduces the background, scope and objectives of this paper. Chapter 2 comprehensively reviews the emergence and evolution of the double-track system in grain marketing. Moreover, it describes data resource and statistical analysis. Chapter 3 reviews and evaluates relevant articles. Chapter 4 describes different roles of government departments at different levels in the grain double-track system, and explores the determinants of quota allocation and their relationship with policy objectives by the construction and implementation of a grain quota allocation model. Chapter 5 analyses farmers?grains supply response under the double-track system by way of a supply response model incorporated with price expectation. Chapter 6 examines the effects of market intervention by the construction and implementation of a grain market intervention model and compares them with relevant countries. Chapter 7 analyses the ending conditions, transitional proposals and periods of the double-track system, as well as makes comment on current grain and agricultural policies. Chapter 8 presents the conclusion of this paper, and briefly points out the directions for further studies. 151 Using the panel data from 25 rice-growing counties in 3 provinces (Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Sichuan), the empirical studies show the following findings: I. Central and local governments play different roles in the grain double-track system. Generally speaking, quota quantity and quota price were set by the central government, and allocated top-down. Great differences exist between counties in quota quantity, whereas the difference of quota price bet更多还原