【作者】 田德录；

【导师】 卢凤君；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业大学 ， 农业机械化工程， 2000， 博士

【摘要】 当前，从企业风险管理的角度，研究较大规模乡镇企业财务风险的防范与控制问题，对于推进现代企业制度的建立和完善，保障企业的生存与发展，进而促进我国农村经济乃至国民经济的持续发展，具有明显现实意义和学术价值。本文在总结国内外有关企业财务风险理论和方法研究文献的基础上，结合乡镇企业实际情况，借鉴系统理论和控制理论的思想，运用系统分析和决策分析的方法，提出了研究乡镇企业财务风险机制与控制问题的系统分析思维框架，包括企业财务风险生成/传导机制分析框架、防范/控制机制分析框架、风险状态判断与原因诊断分析框架、以及风险防范/控制策略体系构成分析框架。 基于企业财务风险缘于外部经营环境和内部管理决策客观存在的不确定性的认识，针对当前对较大规模乡镇企业持续发展影响较大的经济政策因素、市场环境因素、技术因素以及企业内部理财决策因素，论文运用模型分析及因果分析方法，剖析了各类关键影响因素引致乡镇企业财务风险的机理和效应，并根据系统分解与综合的分析方法，讨论了乡镇企业财务风险生成/传导的综合效应机制。 围绕企业财务风险防范/控制机制的核心问题：动力机制和运行机制，论文深入分析了乡镇企业相关利益主体防范/控制风险的动机和行为，总结了乡镇企业防范/控制风险的动力机制，并将其与国有企业和上市公司进行了比较分析；然后从风险防范/控制系统运行的分析模型、基本程序和基本方式等方面，讨论了乡镇企业财务风险防范/控制系统的运行机制。研究认为，大部分乡镇企业财务风险的防范/控制机制存在较大的缺陷。 考虑到企业财务风险状态及原因的判断和诊断是防范/控制风险的前提和条件，论文以企业经营绩效评价为方法和手段，根据提出的评价结果与风险状态判定准则，对我国上市乡镇企业财务风险状态及原因进行了系统分析。结果表明，绝大多数上市乡镇企业存在程度不同的发生财务风险的可能性，其原因主要在于企业较低的主营业务利润率、高额的应收帐款、较低的短期偿债能力以及净利润的非持续增长。 论文把财务风险防范/控制策略作为企业财务风险研究的落脚点。在对乡镇企业财务风险防范/控制的手段目标、直接目标、间接目标和最终目标分析的基础上，结合风险防范/控制的基本方法，从风险状态转移、风险机制改善和企业特性优化等三个层次出发，提出了乡镇企业财务风险防范/控制策略体系形成的基本途径，并结合案例企业，重点从企业特性评价和优化的角度，分析了案例企业财务风险防范/控制策略的构建要点。 本文所做的工作，只是乡镇企业财务风险研究这一复杂系统问题的初步成果，因此仍有许多问题有待继续深入研究解决。更多还原

【Abstract】 Research on financial risk prevention and control in Chinese township enterprises (CTEs) of larger scale, from the angle of risk management, has an evidently practical and academic significance to propelling the foundation and consummation of Modem Enterprise System, ensuring the survival and development of CTEs, and then promoting the sustainable development of rural and national economy at present. On the basis of summarizing the literature of financial risk theory and methods in China as well as in other countries, according to the practical situation of CTEs, with the reference on system and control theory, and with the method of systematic analysis and decision analysis, an analyzing framework to study financial risk mechanism and control in CTEs was put forward in this paper. The framework includes the following aspects: financial risk formation/conduct mechanism analysis, risk prevention/control mechanism analysis, risk level estimation and cause diagnosis, and risk prevention/control tactic system analysis. Based on the recognition of financial risk originating from the objectively existing uncertainty of operating environment and managing decisions, in the light of the factors of economic policy, market, technology, and financing decisions which are more relative with the sustainable development of CTEs, with the method of model analysis and cause-result analysis, the mechanism and effect of critical factors resulting in financial risk was analyzed in the paper. Then the synthetical effect mechanism of financial risk formation/conduct in CTEs was discussed with the method of system analyzing and synthesizing. With the core issue of financial risk prevention/control mechanism, the motives and behaviors of risk prevention/control of the subjects of the CTEs were analyzed intensively in this paper, and the drive mechanism was summarized and compared with the state-owned and listed company. Then the operation mechanism of risk prevention/control was discussed from the aspects of analyzing model, basic procedure and pattern. The conclusion is that the risk prevention/control mechanism is defective in most CTEs. By reason that financial risk level estimation and cause diagnosis are the precondition of risk prevention and control, by means of business performance assessment method, according to the judgement rules, the financial risk level and causes of the listed CTEs were analyzed systematically. The result is that absolutely most listed CTEs are in risk situation and the causes are the lower return of main business, higher receivables, lower capability of short-term debt redemption, and unsustainable increase of net profit. The research on the tactic of risk prevention and control is the aim of financial risk analysis. Based on the analysis of object system and basic method of risk prevention and control, from the angle of risk level changing, risk mechanism improving, and business characteristic optimizing, the basic approach to forming the tactic system of risk prevention/control was put forward. And the formation of tactic was analyzed emphatically from the point of business characteristic assessment and optimization with the case study.更多还原