【作者】 楚芳芳；

【导师】 何继善； 蒋涤非；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 土木工程， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 随着城市化、全球化、信息化的发展,城市群在全国生产力格局中起着战略支撑点、增长极点和核心节点的作用,同时也是一系列生态环境问题集中激化的高度敏感地区和重点治理地区,为此迫切需要分析城市群的生态承载状况,判别城市群可持续发展态势,寻求解决城市群经济发展和生态环境之间矛盾的有效措施和对策。根据国内外文献资料,搜集整理城市群理论、生态经济学理论、生态承载力理论和可持续发展理论,采用系统分析方法、理论与实证分析法、时间与空间相结合法、多学科交叉法等,解构基于可持续发展的城市群生态承载力的机理,建立复合Logistic发展模型、资源供需平衡分析模型、生态承载力的指标体系等,研究基于可持续发展的城市群生态经济系统的的结构、功能、运行机制和承载状况,使之成为城市群可持续发展问题描述、系统评价、预测、控制、管理、监测、决策等研究和实践的基础和工具。在分析长株潭城市群生态经济系统的基础上,根据基于可持续发展的城市群生态承载力的模型,用最优结构的评价指标进行统计分析和数学计算,把脉和诊断从2000年到2011年的长株潭城市群生态承载力演变态势,判断长株潭城市群可持续发展状况,结果显示长株潭城市群的可持续发展状况不容乐观。通过调研、模拟和分析国内外城市群的发展模式,结合长株潭城市群自身历史、现状和机遇,提出长株潭城市群人口、社会、经济、产业和生态环境的可选发展模式,探讨具有可操作性的提升城市群生态承载力的对策,为长株潭城市群可持续发展提供科学方法。基于可持续发展的视野,以生态承载力为核心,从宏观到微观、从政府到公众、从生产到消费、从理论到实践,有针对性地构架起改善长株潭城市群生态承载力的导向措施、推进路径和对策,为长株潭城市群“两型社会”、生态文明和低碳经济建设提供建设性意见,对于长株潭城市城市群的生态经济规划、区域规划、生态规划、发展战略、国土整治、经济开发等重大问题均具有重要意义。本文完善和健全了基于可持续发展的城市群生态承载力理论体系,丰富了城市群的区域生态经济发展理论；针对城市群的生态经济系统特点,将能值分析和生态足迹有机结合,建立起基于能值分析的改进生态足迹模型；根据DPSIR框架和承载机制,模拟城市群生态经济系统的层次结构,创新性地构建了基于可持续发展的城市群生态承载力的五层指标体系,共70个指标,全面反映基于可持续发展的的城市群生态承载力的内涵；创新性地把生态承载设计理念贯穿于长株潭城市群生态经济规划的过程中；根据长株潭城市群的环境Kuznets曲线,通过学习和借鉴国内外先进城市群的成熟经验,设计跨越式发展曲线,提出长株潭城市群跨越式发展的方法。由于当前社会理论水平的限制,本人知识结构的制约,理论体系、实践操作和研究方法都有待进一步完善和提高。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of urbanization, globalization and informatization, urban agglomeration plays a strategic supporting point, a growth pole and a core node in national productivity distribution patterns, as well as a number of ecological and environmental problems Centralized intensification highly sensitive areas and key management areas, there is an urgent need to analyze the situation of ecological carrying capacity of urban agglomerations, to distinguish sustainable development trends, in order to seek effective methods and countermeasures to solve the contradiction between economic development and ecological environment.According to Literature information at home and abroad collecting and finishing urban agglomerations theory, ecological economics theory, ecological carrying capacity theory and sustainable development theory, using system analysis method, theoretical and empirical analysis law, time and space combination method, and interdisciplinary research law, the frame of ecological carrying capacity mechanism in urban agglomerations was soluted based on sustainable development. Composite Logistic development model, and resources supply balance analysis model, ecological carrying capacity index system was established. The structure, function, operation mechanism and the carrying situation of ecological economic system of urban agglomerations based on sustainable development was studied comprehensively integrated,which becomes the basis and tool of research and practice to describe the problem, system evaluation, prediction, control, management, monitoring, decision-making of urban agglomerations sustainable development.According to the model of ecological carrying capacity of urban agglomeration based on the sustainable development, on the basis of analysis of ecological economy system in ChangZhutan urban agglomeration, made statistical analysis and mathematical calculation with the evaluation indexes of the optimal structure, pulse and diagnosis of the evolution of ecological carrying capacity in ChangZhutan urban agglomeration from2000to2011, judged the situation of sustainable development in ChangZhutan urban agglomeration, it showed that the sustainable development status of ChangZhutan urban agglomeration was not optimistic.Through the research, simulation and analysis of the urban agglomerations development model, combined with its own history, current situation and opportunities, the optional development model of ChangZhutan urban agglomerations about population, social, economic, industry and ecological environment was supported, the Maneuverability countermeasure with upgrade regional ecological carrying capacity was explored in order to provide a scientific method for the ChangZhutan urban agglomerations sustainable development.Based on the perspective of sustainable development, as the core of ecological carrying capacity, from the macro to the micro, from the government to the public, from production to consumption, from theory to practice, oriented measures, promotion path and countermeasures to improve ecological carrying capacity of ChangZhutan urban agglomerations were set up, in order to provide the constructive opinion for ChangZhutan urban agglomerations "two type society", ecological civilization and the construction of low carbon economy,which was of important significance for major issues ChangZhutan urban agglomerations of ecological economic planning, regional planning, ecological planning, development strategy, land improvement, economic development.This paper had improved and perfected theory system about ecological carrying capacity of urban agglomerations based on sustainable development, has enriched regional ecological economic development theory of urban agglomerations; According to the characteristics of the ecological economic system, based on the organic combination of emergy analysis and ecological footprint, the improved ecological footprint model based on energy analysis was set up; Based on DPSIR framework and carrying mechanism, simulating urban agglomeration in the hierarchical structure of the ecological economic system, urban agglomeration index system of ecological carrying capacity of five layers based on the sustainable development were creatively constructed, concuding a total of70index, comprehensively reflecting the connotation of ecological carrying capacity of urban agglomerations based on the sustainable development; The ecological carrying design concept was run through innovativly the process of ecological economic planning in the changzhutan urban agglomeration; According to the environmental Kuznets curve of changzhutan urban agglomeration, studying and drawing lessons from the domestic and foreign advanced experience of urban agglomerations, the leapfrog development curve was designed, the method of the leapfrog development of changzhutan urban agglomeration was put forward.Due to limitations in current levels of theory development, restriction of my knowledge structures, theory, practice, and research methods were need to be further expanded and improved.更多还原