【作者】 刘攀；

【导师】 丁任重；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 区域经济学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 随着低碳经济越来越受到世界各国的关注,学术界与决策制定者也逐步达成共识,认为低碳经济是应对气候变化的最佳经济模式。改革开放30年来,我国在经济持续高速发展,但是能源紧缺等问题逐渐凸显,环境恶化日益严重。面对这种情况,胡锦涛提出了“坚持以人为本,全面、协调、可持续”的科学发展观,为我国发展低碳经济、实现可持续发展指明了方向。作为一个新颖的课题,低碳经济预示着经济发展的一种未来形态,其核心是通过提高能源使用效率、降低能耗、减少污染物排放等,以建立全新的能源结构和经济发展模式,其关键在于相关技术创新和制度创新。低碳经发展是可持续发展的重要保证,更是我国探索新的经济发展模式的有效途径之一。我国幅员广阔,地理、历史等许多因素导致我国经济发展差异巨大,各个地区低碳经济发展水平如何,国家制定的各项低碳经济政策在不同区域会产生何种效果,这都将为低碳经济发展的模式提供理论支撑与现实依据。全文包括绪论部分,共八章。第一章：导论。本章介绍了本文论题的研究背景,研究目的和意义,同时对研究内容和论文的结构安排,研究的方法和研究的基本思路等问题进行了阐述,同时对本文的可能创新点和不足进行了介绍。第二章：相关研究理论基础。本章归纳总结了低碳经济、区域经济、环境与资源经济、生态经济的相关理论和方法。区域发展理论特别是区域不平衡发展的思想是本文研究低碳经济在不同区域产生不同效果的理论基础；环境与资源经济理论是明确人类发展应坚持可持续发展的核心思想,既保护资源和生态环境,又有利于人的生存和发展；生态经济理论是对低碳经济在人与自然和谐发展下的一种补充。相关理论对低碳经济进行的详细阐述,将为后续的研究进行铺垫和方法上的准备。第三章：低碳经济的缘起与探索。回顾了人类社会由低碳农业社会向高碳工业社会以及未来迈向低碳创新社会的社会发展历程。介绍了人类对低碳经济的认识过程,分析了低碳经济理论由可持续理论的孕育、发展到诞生的探索道路,继而介绍了国外低碳经济发展的历程和经验,在此基础上认为我国发展低碳经济是优化能源结沟、保护环境、实现社会可持续发展的必由之路,对中国的政治、社会、经济、环境与技术具有极其重要的意义。第四章：中国区域低碳经济衡量与比较。本章通过从经济发展方式的低碳化程度、政府对于低碳政策的支持程度以及生态环境的低碳禀赋程度三个方面入手,充分考虑低碳经济发展潜力的多维度、多层次,通过定性与定量相结合的方法,构建了一套较为准确、客观的反映区域低碳经济综合发展状况的指标体系。通过构建的中国区域低碳经济发展指标体系对我国各个省份进行测量后,发现我国东部地区的低碳经济发展处于领先水平,西部地区的低碳经济发展属于中等水平,而中部地区的低碳经济发展水平则落后于全国平均水平,有待进一步的发展。本文发现,东部地区低碳经济发展较好的主要因素是经济增长的低碳化程度较高,其制约因素是低碳资源禀赋较低；西部低碳经济发展水平处于中等,这主要是由于低碳资源相对丰富,但是经济发展低碳程度相对较低,是未来低碳经济发展的阻碍因素；中部地区承接了东部地区的落后产业的转移,又没有西部丰富的低碳资源,所以低碳经济发展水平最低,是未来低碳经济发展的重要地区。第五章：中国区域低碳经济政策模拟模型的构建。本章利用一般均衡模型CGE的基本理论,将具有控制低碳政策的模块植入其中,并通过模型调整,构建了具有反映不同政策模拟不同区域作用的中国区域低碳经济政策模拟模型。第六章：区域差异下的低碳经济政策模拟与情景分析。结合上章所建立的模型,本章将碳税、重工业出口退税、征收化石能源从价税、调整产业结构、发展CDM项目等多项措施进行模拟。通过模拟本章发现,低碳政策在不同区域将产生不同作用。根据模拟结果,实施碳税将会对三大区域的宏观经济产生不同程度的负面影响,但实施碳税将显著的降低单位GDP能耗、降低二氧化碳排放；实施建设重工业退税政策将对中部和东部地区产生较明显的影响,GDP、就业和福利水平会相应下降,西部地区受到的冲击较小；实施降低重工业比重,提高第三产业等政策,对于三大区域经济发展将会产生较为明显提振作用,但是能源部门和重工业部门将会产生明显的损失；发展CDM项目将对西部和中部的节能减排产生较为明显的作用。第七章：中国区域低碳经济发展的重点与政策建议。确定了中国区域低碳经济发展的原则,并在此基础上设定了低碳经济发展的目标和实现的路径,对中国三大区域发展低碳经济的主要问题和重点突破口进行了分析。本章认为,东部地区低碳经济发展主要面临的问题是资源和能源型产业比重高,产业结构不合理、经济社会活动和资源环境承载力矛盾突出以及低碳资源开发潜力有限,其发展重点应该是优化产业结构、提高自主创新以及化解资源瓶颈有所突破。中部地区低碳经济发展主要面临的问题是总体综合发展水平有待提高、产业结构不合理和产业集聚发展不充分,其发展重点是提高自然资源开发效益中促进经济又快又好发展以及产业结构进一步优化方面有所突破。西部地区低碳经济发展主要面临的问题经济发展水平较低,传统意识较强、区域协调发展能力较弱,生态环境脆弱,其发展重点是生态环境建设、资源利用效率以及特殊产业方面有所突破。第八章：结论与展望。对全文的主要结论进行了总结,提出论文尚需深入研究的问题和今后的研究方向。综上所述,本文的研究对分析我国不同区域低碳经济发展水平、判断不同政策在各个区域的政策效果等方面具有重要的理论和现实意义,为中央政府低碳经济政策的制定和地方政府的响应措施提供了战略性参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 With more and more countries in the world of low-carbon economy concerns, academics and decision-makers have gradually reached a consensus that low-carbon economy is the best economic response to climate change models.30years of reform and opening up, China’s sustained rapid economic development, but increasingly prominent issues such as energy shortage, environmental degradation worsening. Faced with this situation, Hu proposed a "people-oriented, comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable," the scientific concept of development for China’s development of low-carbon economy and achieve sustainable development in the specified direction. As the subject of a novel, low-carbon economy indicates that the future economic development of a form, the core is to improve energy efficiency, reduce energy consumption and pollutant emissions, in order to establish a new energy structure and economic development models, The key is related to technological innovation and institutional innovation. Low-carbon economic development is an important guarantee for sustainable development, it is China’s new economic development model to explore an effective way. China’s vast territory, geography, history and many other factors have led to huge differences in economic development, each level of development of regional low-carbon economy, the state of the various policies in different regions of low-carbon economy will have what effect will this have a low-carbon economic development model to provide theoretical support and practical basis.Full text including introduction part, a total of eight chapters.Chapter Ⅰ:Introduction. This chapter describes the background of this research topic, research purpose and meaning, while the content of research papers and structural arrangements, research methods and research issues such as the basic ideas are described, while this may be a lack of innovation and introduction.Chapter Ⅱ:theoretical basis for research. This chapter summarizes the low-carbon economy, regional economic, environmental and resource economic, ecological and economic theories and related methods. Regional development theories, especially the idea of regional imbalances in development, this study of low-carbon economy have different effects in different regions of the theoretical basis; the environment and human resource development of economic theory is clear and should adhere to the core idea of sustainable development, both to protect the resources and ecological environment, but also conducive to human survival and development; ecological economic theory is a low-carbon economy in the harmonious development between man and nature under a supplement. The theory of low-carbon economy of detail, follow-up studies will pave the way and method of preparation.Chapter Ⅲ:The Origin and exploration of low-carbon economy. Review of human society from an agricultural society to a low carbon-carbon industrial society towards a low carbon innovation and the future of society and social development process. Describes the human process of understanding the low-carbon economy, analysis of low-carbon economic theory from the theory of the birth of sustainable development to explore the birth of the road, and then describes the history of foreign low-carbon economic development and experience, on this basis that our development of low-carbon economy is to optimize energy end groove, protecting the environment, the only way to achieve sustainable social development of China’s political, social, economic, environmental and technology has great significance.Chapter Ⅳ: China’s regional low-carbon economy to measure and compare. This chapter from the low-carbon economic development level, government policies, the degree of support for low carbon and low-carbon environment endowment of three-pronged approach, fully consider the economic development potential of low-carbon multi-dimensional, multi-level, through qualitative and quantitative combination of methods to build a more accurate and objective reflection of the regional comprehensive economic development of low carbon index system. By building low-carbon economic development of China’s regional system of indicators to measure the various provinces in China, found in eastern China’s leading low-carbon economic development level, low-carbon economic development in the western region of medium level, while the central region of low-carbon economy development is lagging behind the national average, pending further development. It is found that the eastern region of low-carbon economy is a major factor in the development of better economic growth, a higher degree of carbon, the carbon constraints are low resource endowment; western levels of economic development in the middle of low-carbon, mainly due to low-carbon resources are relatively abundant, but relatively low level of economic development in low carbon, low-carbon future economic development impediments; the central region of the eastern region to undertake the transfer of backward industries, there is no carbon in western rich resources, low-carbon economy the lowest level, the development of low-carbon economy is an important future area.Chapter Five: China’s regional economic policy simulation model of low carbon building. CGE model used in this chapter the basic general equilibrium theory, low-carbon policies will have control module implanted in them, and by adjusting the model was constructed to reflect different policy simulations with the role of different regions of China’s regional policy simulation model of low-carbon economy.Chapter Ⅵ: Regional differences in economic policy under the low-carbon simulation and scenario analysis. With the model established by the last chapter, this chapter will be a carbon tax, heavy export tax rebates, levying an ad valorem tax fossil fuels, industrial restructuring, the development of CDM projects and other measures to simulate. By simulating this chapter found that low-carbon policies in different regions will have different effects. According to the simulation results, the implementation of a carbon tax would be on the three regions have different degrees of negative macroeconomic impact, but implementation of the carbon tax will significantly reduce the unit GDP energy consumption, reduce carbon dioxide emissions; heavy construction tax rebate policy will be implemented in central and eastern produce more significant impact area, GDP, employment and welfare will decrease, the smaller the impact the western region; implemented to reduce the proportion of heavy industry, tertiary industry and other policies, for the three regional economic development will have a more significant boost role, but the energy sector and heavy industry sectors will have significant losses; to develop CDM projects in West and Central will have more obvious energy saving effect. Chapter Ⅶ: China’s regional low-carbon economic development priorities and policy recommendations. Determine the regional low-carbon economy in China principle, and on this basis set the goal of low-carbon economic development and the achievement of the path, the regional development of China’s three major problems of low-carbon economy and focus of a breakthrough were analyzed. This chapter argues that the eastern region low-carbon economy is the development of major problems facing resource-based industries and the proportion of high-energy, irrational industrial structure, economic and social activities and the obvious contradiction between the resources and environment carrying capacity and low-carbon resource development potential is limited, its development should be focused optimize the industrial structure, enhance the independent innovation and breakthrough to resolve the bottleneck of resources. The central region of low-carbon economy is a major problem facing the development of the overall integrated needs to be improved, irrational industrial structure and industrial cluster development is not sufficient, the development focus is to improve the efficiency of natural resource development to promote rapid and sound economic development and industrial structure was further optimization breakthrough. Economic development in the western region of low-carbon economic development of the major problems facing the low level, the traditional sense of a strong, coordinated development of the region are weak, fragile ecological environment, the focus will be on the ecological environment, efficient use of resources and special industry breakthrough.Chapter Ⅷ: Conclusions and prospects. The main conclusions of the paper summarizes the presentation of papers the problem needs further research and future research directions.In summary, this study on the analysis of the low-carbon economic development in different regions, different policies in different regions to determine the policy effects has important theoretical and practical significance, low-carbon economy for the central government and local government policies response measures to provide a strategic resource.更多还原