【作者】 张冲；

【导师】 王学义；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 人口学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 近十几年来,中国经济持续增长,人口流动频繁,城镇化水平不断提升。在这一大背景下,住房价格持续快速上涨,“买房难”已经成为影响人们生活的主要问题之一。但是在高房价的同时,住宅销售面积也在持续增加,以2004年到2012年为例,住宅价格年均增长8.9%,住宅销售面积年均增长到达16.0%,超过前者。是什么原因导致住房需求超过住宅价格?这一问题值得我们研究,是经济发展,居民收入增长的拉动作用；还是城镇化推进的新增需求；还是人口结构变动导致,或者其他。本文尝试从人口结构的角度来详细解释。系统探究人口结构变化对住房需求的影响,无论在理论还是现实方面都有着重要的意义。这不仅能让我们全面了解人口结构中的具体变量对住房需求的影响,更能实现对住房政策的合理调整,从而促进中国的房地产市场和人口的良性共发展。梳理国内外的文献,发现国外研究人口结构对住房需求影响的文献较多,总体来看,主要涉及人口的年龄结构、家庭结构和城乡结构,多数学者认为人口年龄结构中少子化的加剧会带来住房需求的下降；老龄化会带来住房需求的下降；家庭规模缩小和城镇化提升对住房需求有促进作用。纵观国外已经有大量关于人口结构对住房需求影响的研究,国内研究还相对不足,尤其是从实证角度深入研究的文献更是屈指可数。因此,对于加强该领域的研究,迫在眉睫。本文在借鉴国内外文献的基础上,首先对人口结构与住房需求的关系进行理论分析,.再运用中国省级面板数据来实证分析人口结构变化对居民住房需求的影响,并对结果进行了稳健性检验和对比分析,使结论更为可靠。进一步在人口结构预测的基础上,对未来的住房需求量进行了预测。最后,根据实证研究和预测的结果,得出了本文的研究结论,并提出了相关的政策建议。具体而言,论文共分为七章：第一章：导论。本章提出了研究背景,研究的问题以及研究意义,阐述了研究思路与框架,研究内容,研究方法,总结了论文可能的创新之处。第二章：理论回顾及文献综述。首先回顾了与本文主题相关的四大基础理论：人口转变理论、生命周期理论、消费函数理论、房地产供求理论。在此基础上,分别从人口的年龄结构、家庭结构、城乡结构等方面对住房需求影响的文献进行了较为系统的梳理,并进行了相关的述评,为后文的深入分析提供基础和支撑。最后,进一步指出本文所需要研究的问题和以往文献的不同之处。第三章：人口结构与住房需求的理论研究。首先介绍了人口结构和住房的相关概念,并对人口结构和住房需求分类。其次从经济、人口、社会环境、自然条件等方面分析了住房需求的影响因素。最后,从理论上,分析了人口结构的自然结构、社会结构、地域结构对住房需求的影响。第四章：中国人口结构与住房市场的变动情况。首先从人口自然结构、社会结构、地域结构三个维度介绍了中国人口结构近年来的变动趋势。再介绍了住房市场的变动趋势,如住房需求、住房价格、住房消费。最后,对人口结构与住房需求进行了相关性分析。相关性分析发现,人口的年龄、家庭、结构、职业和行业、城乡等结构中的代表性指标与住房需求之间的相关性较强。第五章：中国人口结构变动对住房需求影响的实证研究。本章主要利用中国省级面板数据,借助人口结构对住房需求影响的理论模型对中国人口结构和住房需求进行了实证分析,实证分析中分别考察了全国和分区域的情况。同时,也结合2010年第六次人口普查资料对人口老龄化与住房需求的关系进行了论证。研究结果显示,当前,人口自然结构中,少儿抚养比对住房需求有负向的影响,老年抚养比对住房需求有正向的影响；人口社会结构中,平均家庭户规模对住房需求有负向的影响,第二产业和第三产业从业人口比重均对住房需求有正向的影响；人口地域结构中,城镇化对住房需求有正向的影响,流动人口比重对住房需求有负向的影响。但是随着人口老龄化的加剧,老年抚养比对住房需求的正向影响有减弱的趋势,甚至负向影响也可能到来；城镇化进程对住房需求的正向影响也可能会减弱；流动人口对住房需求的影响,可能会因为流动人口结构的变化而发生变化。第六章：基于人口结构变化的中国住房需求预测。本章首先对中国的人口结构进行了预测,其中包括人口的年龄结构、家庭户规模、第二、三产业从业人口比重、城镇人口比重等。并根据预测的人口结构预测未来住房需求量的变动情况。预测结果显示：受人口结构的影响,未来的住房需求量还会大增。特别是按照目前老年抚养比对住房需求的正向预测,人口老龄化还将进一步刺激住房需求的上升。城镇化也是推动住房需求上升的重要因素。第二、三产业从业人口比重的上升也将进一步刺激住房需求。第七章：结论与政策建议。本章总结了本文的研究结论：少子化和老龄化的加剧对当前住房需求的上升起到了较大的促进作用,家庭小型化使得住房需求上升,第三产业是住房需求上升的动力之源,城镇化促进住房需求上升,等。并结合这些结论提出了相关的政策建议：一是房地产市场的发展要考虑人口结构的影响,依据人口结构的变化,促进房地产事业的发展,如：充分利用好人口红利的优势,促进房地产事业的发展；人口老龄化加剧的背景下,大力发展老年地产；住房建设要考虑家庭规模的变化,优化住宅结构；促进农业人口向非农产业转移,为住房需求提供动力之源；稳步提升城镇化水平,推动房地产市场的健康发展；加强流动人口的服务管理,解决流动人口的住房问题。二是,引导住房市场的合理需求,抑制投机性需求。三是,建立健全住房保障和供应体系,满足广大居民的住房需求。四是,加强房地产市场监管和调控,保护消费者合法权益。最后,指出了本文的不足以及进一步研究的展望。以上七章包括研究基础、基本状况、实证考察、结论对策,各个部分前后相互联系,层层递进,具有严密的逻辑关系。论文的研究创新主要体现在以下四个方面：一是研究方法的创新。以往研究人口结构对住房需求的影响,往往是从理论上分析,或者使用时间序列数据,使用面板数据的相对较少。本文不仅从理论上分析了人口结构对住房需求的影响,还使用面板数据考察了人口结构变动对住房需求的影响,并且分区域考察,这也是以往的研究较少涉及的。此外,还使用2010年人口普查数据验证了人口老龄化对住房需求的影响。二是研究视角的创新。以往研究人口结构,主要是涉及人口的年龄结构、或者家庭结构、或者城乡结构。本文从人口结构的广义内容——人口自然结构、社会结构、地域结构三大方面多种结构考察了其对住房需求的影响,涉及人口的年龄结构、家庭结构、教育结构、婚姻结构、职业和行业结构、城乡结构、流动结构等多个方面,拓宽了以往的研究视角。三是研究内容的创新。以往研究人口结构对住房需求的影响,往往只做了影响的研究,而没有进一步预测未来人口结构变动对住房需求的影响。本文在实证结果和预测人口结构的基础上,预测了未来住房需求的变化趋势。四是研究结果的创新。本文的研究发现了中国人口老龄化对住房需求有正向的影响,并且这一影响有下降的趋势；流动人口比重对住房需求有负向的影响。这些是以往研究很少发现的。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the recent ten years, the Chinese economy keeps growing, the populations are too mobile, the level of urbanization is increasing. On this background, housing prices continue to rise rapidly, so unaffordable housing becomes one of the major issues affecting people’s lives. However, with the high prices, residential sales area also continue to increase at the same time. For example, from2004to2012, the residential sales growth rate reached16.0%which is more than the housing prices growth of8.9%annually. Why does the housing demand run faster than housing prices? This problem deserving of our study is caused by economic development, or stimulating effect of residents income growth, or the advancing urbanization, or still population structure change, or other. This paper attempts to explain it from the perspective of population structure in details. Exploring the impacts of population structure on housing demand systematically has important significances both in theory and reality. In order to promote the sound development of China’s real-estate market,this not only allows us to understand the influences of the specific demographic variables on housing demand fully, but also realizes the reasonable adjustment of housing policy. Reviewing domestic and foreign literatures, we find that there are many literatures about population structure impacts on housing demand. Overall, they mainly relate to the population’s age structure, family structure and urbanization,while the most scholars believe that the declining birthrate and increasing aging will bring down the housing demand,and decreasing in family size and the urbanization are beneficial to enhance the housing demand. Throughout foreign countries where have a large number of studies on the impacts of demographic demand for housing, while the domestic study are not enough, especially the empirical literatures are numbered. Therefore, the strengthening of research in the field is imminent. This paper is based on the literatures from abroad, firstly analyses the theoretical relationship between population structure and housing demand, and uses the Chinese provincial panel data to analyze the impacts of population structure on housing demand.Further more.the use of the robustness test and comparative analysis makes the conclusions more reliable. Further on the basis of demographic forecasts predict the future housing demand. Finally, according to the results of empirical research and prediction, the conclusions are drawn in the end, and put forward relevant policy recommendations. Specifically, the paper is divided into seven chapters.Chapter I:Introduction. This chapter presents the research background, research questions and research significance, while it elaborates research ideas and frameworks, research contents, research methods. The chapter also summarizes the possible innovations in this paper.Chapter II:Reviewing of the theories and literatures about this paper. First, this chapter review the four basic theories which are relevant to the subject of this article:the demographic transition theory, life-cycle theory, consumption function theory, real estate supply and demand theory. On these bases, respectively,the chapter reviews the literatures about the effects of the age structure, family structure and urban and rural structure on housing demand, and comment these literatures, which provide the basis and support for the deep analysis later in this article. Finally,it point out the difference issues studied in this paper which compare with previous literatures.Chapter III:Theoretical study of population structure on housing demand. Firstly this chapter introduces the concepts of population and housing structure, and classifies the population structure and housing demand. Second, in terms of economic, demographic, social environment, natural conditions analyze the influencing factors of housing demand. Finally, from the theoretical perspective, it analyzes the impacts of population natural structure, social structure, and geographical structure on housing demand.Chapter IV:Describe the changes of China’s population structure and the housing market. First, this chapter introduces the changes of China’s population structure from three aspects including natural structure, social structure, regional structure in recent years. Then it introduces the changes in the housing market, inculding:housing demand, housing prices, housing consumption. Finally, the correlation analysis of population structure and housing demand are analyzed, and the analysis shows that housing demand has correlations with the typical indicators of age population structure, family structure, occupation and industry structure, urban and rural structure, and so on.Chapter V:An empirical study about the impacts of population structure on China’s housing demand. This chapter mainly uses the theoretical models to study the effects of population structure on housing demand by Chinese provincial panel data, including national and regional empirical analysis. It also combines the demonstration of population aging on housing demand by the data of sixth census2010. The results shows that the current natural population structure, which the children ratio has a negative impact on housing demand, the elderly dependency ratio has a positive impact on the demand for housing. At the social structure of the population, the average household size has a negative impact on housing demand, the proportion of the employed population in the secondary and tertiary industry both have positive impacts on housing demand.At the geographical structure of population, urbanization has a positive impact on housing demand and the proportion of migrants has a negative impact on housing demand. However, with the increasing aging population, its positive impact on housing demand will be weakened, Even it may come to a negative impact in the future. In the process of urbanization, its positive impact on housing demand may also be weakened.And he impact on the housing demand of migrants may change with the floating population structure shifts.Chapter VI:Predict China’s housing demand based on the forecast population structure. Firstly this chapter predicts the China’s population structure, including the age structure, household size, the proportion of the employed populations in the secondary and tertiary industries, urbanization and so on. Then predict future changes in housing demand based on forecast population structure. Forecasting results showed:future housing demand will surge by the effected population structure. Especially the positive forecasts of the elderly dependency ratios on current housing demand indicates that population aging will further stimulate housing demand. Urbanization will also be an important factor in the rising demand for housing promotion.Chapter VII:Conclusions and policy recommendations. This chapter summarizes the conclusions of this paper:child dependency ratio is negatively associated with housing demand, elderly dependency ratio is positively associated with the housing demand, family miniaturization makes rising housing demand, and the tertiary industry is the source of the rising housing demand, urbanization promotes housing demand, and so on. Combining these conclusions it puts forward relevant policy recommendations.First, the development of the real estate market should consider the impacts of population structure, with the changing of population structure which can promote the development of the real estate business, Such as:full use of the advantage of the demographic dividend can promote the development of the real estate business; under the background of increasing aging population, vigorously develop the old estate; Housing construction should take into account changes in family size, optimize residential structure; promoting agricultural population to non-agricultural department, that will provide the source of power for the housing demand; Steady improvement in the level of urbanization can promote the healthy development of the real estate market; Strengthen management of floating population and solve the housing problems of migrants. The second is to guide the reasonable needs of the housing market, to curb speculative demand. Third, establish and improve housing guarantee and supply system, satisfy the residents’ housing demand. Fourth, strengthen market supervision, and protect the consumers’ legal rights and interests. Finally, point out the shortcomings and prospects for further research in this paper.The seven chapters above include the research foundations, the basic situations, the empirical study, and the conclusions measures, all parts related and progressive with rigor logic. The innovations of this paper mainly contain the following four aspects:First innovative is methods. Previous studies about the impacts of population structure on housing demand, are often from the theoretical analysis, or the use of time-series data, relatively little use of panel data. This paper not only analyzes the impacts from the theoretical perspective, but also examines the impacts of the population structure on housing demand by panel data, and including the sub-regional study, which is less involved in the previous studies. In addition, this paper uses the2010census data to verify the impact of population aging on housing demand. Second, the research perspective is new. Previous studies of population structure, primarily relate to the age structure, or family structure, or urban-rural structure. This paper analyzes the effects of generalized population structure (population natural structure, social structure, regional structure) on housing demand. The generalized population structure contain age structure, family structure, education structure, marriage structure, occupation and industry structure, urban and rural structure, liquidity structure, which broad the perspective of previous studies. Third, Research content is creative. Effects of past demographic demand for housing, often only contain the study of the impacts, without further predict of the impact of future population structure changes on housing demand. This paper predicts the future trends of housing demand, based on empirical results and projected population structure. Fourth, the Research results are fresh. This study finds that China’s aging population has a positive impact on housing demand, and the impact is fading; the proportion of floating population has a negative impact on housing demand. These are rarely found in previous studies.更多还原