【作者】 唐力维；

【导师】 郭元晞；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 产业经济学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 1978年至今,我国经济获得了持续稳定增长。但不可否认的是,长期以来,我国经济政策偏重于工业规模的扩大和总量的提高,忽视产业素质特别是企业的市场竞争力的提高,由此造成我国产业结构低水平下的结构性、地区性生产过剩,经济运行中的高消耗、低效益、高投入、低产出的问题日益突出。近年来,快速发展的中国制造业主要是低附加值,低科技含量的加工制造产业,其廉价劳动力的成本优势已逐渐被柬埔寨、越南、孟加拉等东南亚及南亚的新兴市场取代。再加上2008年美国金融危机,影响到我国经济发展的外部环境,表现为出口受到约束。现有的经济结构不能适应国内国际市场的变化,如何打破外部需求不足,并有效挖掘内部需求就显得极为迫切,而结构调整成为基本的政策走向。从某种程度上讲,在经济和社会均处于转型期的中国,结构问题已经成为需要重点关注的问题之一。实际上,如何通过市场与政府“两只手”的合作实现资本流向与产业结构优化协调的政策目标,最终提升经济运行效率,突破需求不足对经济增长的负面约束构成了本文的主要目的。本文尝试选择优化产业结构以及相关的金融服务为研究主题,通过对产业结构优化、新兴产业发展与金融支持关系的研究,分析如何通过金融支持推动新兴产业发展,或者说通过政策引导更多的资本流向新兴产业,最终实现整体产业结构的优化,即更为反映技术和知识的价值,表现出软化和服务化特征。本文对新兴产业的具体论述是以“战略性”为出发点,是针对“结构调整而言的”。作为结构问题的重要组成部分之一,本文选择产业结构及其调整优化为重心,同时结合宏微观方面的金融服务来进行综合性研究,并在此基础上,以四川的相关问题为着眼点进行纵深考察和分析。本文通过对产业结构相关问题的研究,在某种程度上,也将为其他结构问题的解决或者说改善提供基本的借鉴。全文共分为八个章节。第一章,导论。依据“提出问题—分析问题”的基本研究思路,在概述我国产业结构的现实情况和存在主要问题后,提出了本论文的研究范畴和主要问题：我国产业结构优化与相关金融支持研究。重点以四川省的视角,展开产业结构优化与金融支持的研究；第二章,国内外理论与文献综述。在论文的文献评述部分,首先从严谨的学术角度对产业结构与产业结构升级的内涵加以界定,进而从国内外现有文献入手,对产业结构的相关理论做出深刻的回顾和总结。对研究产业结构升级与金融支持的相关文献做出评述,归纳现有文献的不足,提出本论文的学术贡献；第三章：在评述现有产业结构及产业优化的相关研究文献的基础上,得出既有文献的不足之处在于未从理论上深入阐述产业结构优化、新兴产业发展和金融支持三者内在联系；继而在该章节中,我们尝试着从理论上思考中国产业结构、新兴产业和金融支持三者之间的内在联系机理。提出了这三者之间内在联系机理的理论假说,上述理论假说为后续实证章节做出了重要理论铺垫。在分析我国产业发展的现状、结合相关文献的研究基础,并提出以四川省为观察和研究的视角,有重点、分层次的分析区域性新兴产业的金融支持,展开产业结构优化与金融支持的研究；第四章,由产业结构的升级中引入金融服务的重要性,并分阶段回顾了我国改革开放以来我国金融服务与产业结构的调整,金融支持对外贸业务发展的促进作用,最后论述了宏观金融政策与产业调整的关系；第五章,深入研究了四川省产业结构的现状、发展形势,以及发展的优势与制约因素,并进一步探讨四川省发展战略性新兴产业的主要支撑条件、政策保障措施；第六章,基于四川省的视角,纵深分析了金融支持新兴产业发展的作用,从重点产业领域、重点产业的布局角度概述了金融支持新兴产业发展的现状,深入分析金融支持新兴产业发展的特点与成效,提出金融支持产业结构升级的可行路径：资本市场支持、财政政策支持；第七章,发展新兴产业与金融支持的数量分析。分地区、分行业的实证分析了新兴产业与金融支持的关系,并计算了新兴产业的全要素生产率,分析了金融支持新兴产业的效率；第八章,金融支持新兴产业发展的政策建议,基于金融支持对产业结构升级的重大推动作用,从市场性金融支持、政策性金融支持、区域性金融支持三个方面提出金融支持新兴产业发展的可行策略。本文对产业结构、新兴产业与金融支持的研究重点在于回答如下几个问题：其一,产业结构调整与金融政策的关系问题。普遍认为优化产业结构与必要的金融支持是密切相关的,这个关联在若干发展中国家都有较为明显的表现,特别是在某些政府进行有限干预的国家表现得更为显著。和我们不同的是,日本的做法是以市场为基础的,而我们迄今为止的做法主要是依靠政府行为去“打造”的。这一区别足以引起我们的反思。其二,如何将结构式改革从“口号和宣传”层面引入到本质层面。真正意义上的产业结构调整,必须以市场要素的自由流动为基础。也就是说,本文所说的结构调整,底线是不能沿袭所谓“中国模式”中的那种已经过时的政府行为模式。这里暗含的假定条件是中国模式已经取得了成功,但导致它成功的某些前提条件已不复存在,因此我们不能在新的发展时期继续沿袭它的思路和方法。这其实是对原有发展模式即中国模式的一种扬弃,我们需要在新时期和新阶段中把发展模式上升到另一个高度。其三,结构调整与经济转轨的结合问题。基于以上思路,本文着重提出这样一个命题：我国目前的经济发展,带有明显的二次转轨的趋向和特征。包括结构调整在内的中国经济发展面临二次转轨的内在需求,即由半市场经济向真正的市场经济转轨。未来中国的经济和社会发展能不能成功,将与经济转轨关系密切。其四,改革模式的继承性,即如何更好发挥所谓“政府行为”的改革模式的优势。从混合经济到比较成熟的市场经济还有一个相当漫长的过程。在这个过程中,某些有条件有限制的政府行为只要不伤及市场要素的根本,还是可以并且需要适当延续的,这可以视为在新的过渡时期的一种外部补充。其五,改革的适度性问题。在政策确定之后,程序和细节将决定最后的成败。这些程序和细节,就是我们在论文中经常提到的某些临界线或“度”的分界。我们需要找出一些与市场直接相关的,或者说更为客观的指标。本文对产业结构优化、新兴产业与金融支持的研究,兼具理论和现实意义,并存在如下可能的创新之处：其一,通过将产业结构调整与经济转轨结合分析,本文讨论了改革模式的继承性和适度性问题,为研究结构调整以及相似的改革问题提供了新的分析视角。我们的研究同样提供了分析产业结构优化、新兴产业发展与金融支持区域研究的有效尝试。考虑到我国的某些特点,本文选择资源丰富的西部地区中代表性的四川省,作为相关问题的着眼点进行比较纵深地考察和分析,把诸如“产业结构”这样一个较大的题目,放低到一个有代表性的区域来做研究。我们认为,在方法论上,这样做是一种既照顾了整体,又突出了典型的有效的尝试,提供了相似研究“从样本到总体”的分析逻辑。其二,对新兴产业与金融支持的模型分析,为相似问题的实证研究提供了理论参考。实证检验得出产出效率不高的一个重要原因是金融支持的不足。因此,提高新兴产业的金融支持力度可以有效提高产出效率。尽管这个结论也许是显而易见的,但在本文中是经过数据检验的,因而具有一定的学术价值。其三,本文的研究为加大金融支持,推动产业结构优化提供了新的政策思路。我们基于实证结构提出的政策建议融合了市场、政策与区域三个维度,政策维度得到有效拓展,并为相关结构问题的政策走向提供了理论借鉴。从市场性金融、政策性金融、区域性金融三个角度提出金融支持新兴产业发展、优化产业结构的建议。这也是从实证角度推出的,具有参考意义的政策建议。但由于时间以及资料占有的缺乏,本论文还存在如下的不足之处：其一,文献缺失带来的问题。现有关于金融支持与产业结构升级的理论成果相对较少,尽管本文也做出了艰辛的探索,但是其贡献仍然相对较小。其二,数据不足带来的样本容量降低。用于分析金融支持对产业结构升级的数据相对较少,样本容量的限制可能会影响结论的稳健性。但我们基于1999至2011年的市场数据所进行的研究,其对金融支持与新兴产业发展关系的基本讨论还是有效的。论文存在的上述不足之处,也是我们未来研究的重点以及努力的方向：其一,将产业结构优化、新兴产业发展与金融支持的研究推向深入；其二,在数据完备的基础上,进行更为有效的实证研究,开展金融支持与产业结构优化的相关其它实证分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since1978, received a steady economic growth in China. But it is undeniable that for a long time, our country economic policy focus on the expansion of industrial scale and the increase of total neglect industry quality especially the improvement of the market competitiveness of enterprises, caused our country industrial structure under the low level of structural and regional overproduction, high consumption, low efficiency of economic operation, high input, low output problem increasingly prominent. In recent years, the rapid development of China’s manufacturing sector is mainly low value-added, low technology content of the processing and manufacturing industries, and its cheap labor cost advantage has gradually been Cambodia, Vietnam, Bangladesh and other emerging markets in southeast Asia and South Asia. Coupled with the us financial crisis of2008, the influence to the external environment of economic development in China, for export is restrained. The existing economic structure can not adapt to the change of the domestic and international market, how to break the external demand, internal demand is very urgent and effective mining, and structural adjustment as the basic policy. To some extent, in both economy and society in the transition period of China, structural problem has become one of the need to focus on the problem. In fact, how to through the market and the government of "two hands" cooperation policy objectives of capital flows to coordinate with the industrial structure optimization, to enhance economic efficiency, break through the demand of negative economic growth constraints constitute the main purpose of this article. This paper tries to choose to optimize the industrial structure as the research subject, and related financial services based on industrial structure optimization, the emerging industry development relation with financial support to research and analyze how the financial support to promote the development of emerging industries, or through policy guidance more capital flows to emerging industries, and ultimately achieve the overall optimization of industrial structure, namely the more reflect the value of technology and knowledge, show the softening and the characteristics of service. As an important part of structural problems, this paper choose the optimization of the industrial structure and its adjustment of center of gravity, at the same time combining macro to micro aspects of financial services to a comprehensive study, and on this basis, the issues related to sichuan as a starting point for further investigation and analysis. In this paper, based on the research of the industrial structure related problems, to some extent, will also be other structural problem or improve in order to provide the basic reference.The full text is divided into eight chapters. The first chapter, introduction. According to "ask questions-analysis problem" basic research train of thought, in an overview of the realities and the existing main problems of industrial structure in our country, puts forward the research category of this paper and the main problems:industrial structure optimization and related financial support research in China. The key to the perspective of sichuan province, financial support on industrial structure optimization and the research; The second chapter, the theory and literature review at home and abroad. In the literature review section of the paper, first of all, from the Angle of the rigorous academic definition to the concept of "industry structure and industry structure upgrade, and then, from the perspective of the existing literature at home and abroad, the related theory of industrial structure to make the profound review and summary. To the study of financial support and upgrading of industrial structure of the related literature review, summarized the shortage of the existing literature, the academic contribution of this paper is put forward; In the third chapter: review the existing industrial structure and industrial optimization, on the basis of relevant research literature, it is concluded that the shortage of the existing literature is not theoretically expound the industrial structure optimization, the relation among emerging industry development and financial support; Then in this chapter, we try to think in theory China’s industrial structure, emerging industries and the inner link between and among financial support mechanism. Put forward the mechanism of inner link between the three theoretical hypothesis, the theoretical hypothesis for subsequent empirical chapter made an important theory foreshadowing. On the analysis of the status quo of the industry development of our country, based on the research based on related literature, and put forward to the perspective of sichuan province as the observation and research, focused, hierarchical analysis of regional industry financial support, financial support on industrial structure optimization and the research; Introduced by industrial structure upgrade in the fourth chapter, the importance of financial services, and review in stages of the financial services in China since China’s reform and opening up and the adjustment of industrial structure, financial support for the promotion of foreign trade, business development, finally this paper discusses the relationship between macro financial policy and industrial adjustment; The fifth chapter, further study of the present situation, the development situation of industrial structure in sichuan province, as well as the advantages and restricting factors of development, and further discusses the development of strategic emerging industry of sichuan province main support conditions, the policy safeguard measures; The sixth chapter, based on the perspective of sichuan province, in depth analysis of the financial support for the development of emerging industry, from the perspective of the layout of the key industries, key industries this paper summarizes the present status of financial support for the development of emerging industry, in-depth analysis of financial support for the development of emerging industry characteristics and effectiveness, financial support to upgrade the industrial structure is put forward feasible path: capital market support, fiscal policy support; Chapter7, the development of emerging industries and the number of financial support analysis. Areas, divisions of the empirical analysis of the emerging industries and the relationship between financial support, and calculate the total factor productivity in the emerging industry, analyze the efficiency of financial support for emerging industries; Chapter8, the financial support for the development of emerging industry policy recommendations, based on the financial support to the important role in promoting industrial structure upgrade, the marketability financial support, policy financial support, regional financial support three aspects of financial support for the development of emerging industry feasible strategies.In this paper, the industrial structure, emerging industries and financial support, the research emphasis is to answer the following questions:First, the problem of the relationship between the industrial structure adjustment and the financial policy. Is generally believed that optimize the industrial structure is closely related with the necessary financial support, the association in several developing countries have more obvious performance, especially in some limited intervention by the government of country more significant. And we are different, the Japanese approach is based on the market, and our practice so far mainly rely on the government behavior to "build". This difference is enough to cause our reflection.Second, how will the structured reform from the aspects of "slogans and propaganda" introduced to the nature. In the true sense of the industrial structure adjustment, must be based on the free flow of market factors. That is to say, in this paper, structural adjustment, the bottom line is not follow the so-called "China model" is the kind of outdated government behavior patterns. Implicit assumption condition here is the Chinese model has been successful, but in its certain prerequisite for successful has ceased to exist, so we can’t in the new development ideas and methods continue to follow it. This is actually the original development model is a sublation of a China model, we need in the new era and new stage of the development model to rise to another level.Third, the combination of structural adjustment and economic transition. Based on the above ideas, this paper puts forward such a proposition:the current economic development in our country, with obvious trend and characteristics of quadratic transformation., including structural adjustment, China’s economic development faces the second transition intrinsic demand, namely from the half of the market economy to the real market economic transition. The future of China’s economic and social development can be successful, will be closely associated with economic transition.Fourth, reform the mode of inheritance, that is, how to better play to the so-called the advantage of the reform mode of "government behavior". From the mixed economy to a more mature market economy and a very slow process. In this process, some conditional limited government behavior as long as it doesn’t hurt the fundamental factors of market, and still can and need appropriate continuance, it can be seen as a kind of external supplement in the new period of transition.Fifthly, the suitability of reform. After the policy, procedure and detail will decide the final success or failure. These procedures and details, that is, we often mentioned in the paper some of the critical path or "degrees" of boundary. We need to find some directly related to the market, or more objective indicators. In this paper, the industrial structure optimization, the new industry and financial support for research, both theoretical and practical significance, and possible innovation place which were as follows:First, combining the industrial structure adjustment and economic transition analysis, this paper discusses the reform mode of inheritance and moderation, for the study of structural adjustment and the reform of similar problem provides a new perspective. Our study also provides the analysis of the industrial structure optimization, the emerging industry development and financial support to regional research an effective attempt. Considering some characteristics of our country, this paper choose the rich resources in the western region representative in sichuan province, as a focal point of problems related to compare the deep investigation and analysis, such as "industrial·structure" such a big topic, down to a representative area to do research. In methodology, we think, it is a kind of not only take care of the whole, and highlight the typical effective attempt, provides a similar studies "from the sample to the overall analysis of the logic.Secondly, in the emerging industry and financial support of the model analysis, empirical research provides the theoretical reference for the similar problem. Empirically draw output efficiency is not high, an important reason is the lack of financial support. As a result, improve the emerging industry of financial support can effectively improve production efficiency. Although this conclusion may seem obvious, but is the data tested in this paper, and therefore has a certain academic value.Thirdly, this paper studies to increase financial support, provides a new thought of policies to promote industrial structure optimization. We put forward policy Suggestions based on the empirical structure combined with the market, policy and regional three dimensions, the policy dimension effectively, and for the relevant policies to provide a theoretical reference of structure problems. From the marketability finance, policy finance, regional financial three angles proposed financial support, the optimization of industrial structure for the development of new industries. It is launched from is empirical Angle, has the reference significance of policy recommendations.But due to the lack of time and information possession, this paper has the following disadvantages: First, the lack of literature. The existing theory of financial support and upgrade of industrial structure results is relatively small, despite the hard exploration, the paper also but their contribution is still relatively small.Second, the insufficient data of sample size is reduced. To analyze the data of the financial support on industrial structure upgrade is relatively small, sample size restrictions may affect the conclusion of robustness. But we based on market data from1999to2011, of the research on the relationship between financial support and emerging industry development basic discussion or effective.Papers of the above shortcomings, is also our focus and efforts in the direction of future research:first, the industrial structure optimization, the emerging industry development and financial support to research into the deep; Secondly, on the basis of the data is complete, the more effective empirical study, financial support and optimization of industrial structure in other empirical analysis.更多还原