【作者】 杜焱；

【导师】 柳思维；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 摘要：增进国民福利、保持经济平稳增长和促进经济集约增长是贯彻中共中央“十八”关于经济持续健康发展总体要求的具体体现,同时也是中国经济现实发展的必然要求。消费、投资和出口是拉动经济增长的三大需求动力,其结构的合理配置对经济增长过程中提升国民福利、保持平稳增长和促进集约增长具有决定性影响。为实现上述经济增长目标,将现实非合理状态的需求动力结构重新调整至上述目标约束下的需求动力结构最优状态成为必要手段。在国民福利目标约束下,对照钱纳里和赛尔奎因提出的工业化进程人均国民收入假说中的最优需求动力结构状态,中国无论是从整体比较还是分区域比较,消费占GDP比重、投资占GDP比重、出口占GDP比重、投资消费比、投资出口比以及投资(消费+出口)比均明显偏离假说中的标准值。因此,根据钱纳里和赛尔奎因提出的工业化进程人均国民收入假说中的最优需求动力结构状态,要实现国民福利水平提升目标,就必须在以支出法核算的GDP中提升消费所占比重,降低投资所占比重,但对于出口需求,东部地区要降低其所占比重,中西部地区则要提高其所占比重。在平稳增长目标约束下,对照修正的稳态增长假说中的最优需求动力结构状态,单位需求产出稳态水平不变和单位需求产出稳态水平匀速提升两种平稳增长视角下的中国及其区域的投资(消费+出口)比值变化均不符合假说中的最优状态。就中国目前而言,选择单位需求产出稳态水平匀速提升平稳增长是实现平稳增长目标的最优选择,但要实现这种目标,就必须保持投资(消费+出口)比值以一个稳定的速度匀速扩大,这对于东、中部地区在近期需要适当控制投资需求的增长速度、迅速提升(消费+出口)需求的增长速度,而西部地区投资和(消费+出口)需求增长则应保持目前基本态势。在集约增长目标约束下,对照要素贡献最大化假说下的最优需求动力结构指标经验值,中国及其区域经济增长中的投资消费比、投资出口比以及投资(消费+出口)比基本致使资本和劳动力要素对经济增长处于非集约化状态。因此,根据要素贡献最大化假说中的中国及其区域需求动力结构的最优经验值,要实现促进经济集约增长目标,就必须促使中国及其区域的投资消费结构、投资出口结构、投资(消费+出口)结构向最优经验比值区间调整,但这需要东、中、西部区域根据自身实际,合理控制投资、扩大消费以及增加或稳定出口需求。以上分析表明,分区域调控投资、消费和出口需求对于改善中国需求动力结构,促进国民福利水平提升、经济平稳增长和经济集约增长三种目标实现至关重要。进一步的,实证分析表明,居民消费需求受到国民收入分配体制等七个因素显著影响；固定资产投资需求受到工业化水平等六个因素显著影响；出口需求受到出口产品种类集中度等六个因素显著影响。与此同时,这些影响因素变化均会对消费投资出口相互结构带来正向或负向的冲击效应。因此,为促进三种经济增长目标实现,就必须结合中国经济增长的区域差异、消费投资出口需求影响因素的影响机理以及这些影响因素对需求动力结构的冲击效应,合理地制定出中国实现需求动力结构调整的有效对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 Abstract:Improving national welfare, maintaining the economy steady growth and promoting the economy intensive Growth is a particular embodiment of carrying out the general requirements of the eighteenth Congress of the Communist Party of China about developing the sustained and healthy economy, is also the inevitable requirement of real economic development of China. Consumption, investment and export are the three demand driving forces of economic growth, whose rational structure has a decisive influence on realizing the goal of national welfare, steady growth and intensive growth in the process of economic growth. In order to realize the above economic growth goals, adjusting the present demand driving force structure that is not rational to an optimal state under the constraint of the above goals has become an necessary means of achieving economic growth goals.Under the constraint of the goal of improving national welfare, by contrasting the optimal status of the demand driving force structure of Chenery and Sell Quinn’s industrialization process per capita national income hypothesis, in China or region’s demand driving force structure the ratio of consumption to GDP, investment to GDP, export to GDP, investment to consumption, investment to export, investment to (consumption plus export) significantly deviate from the standard value in the hypothesis. Therefore, according to the optimal status of the demand driving force structure of Chenery and Sell Quinn’s industrialization process per capita national income hypothesis, in order to achieve the goal of improving national welfare, it is necessary to raise the ratio of consumption to GDP, reduce the ratio of investment to GDP, but for the exports demand, the eastern region should reduce the ratio, the Midwest is to improve the ratio.Under the constraint of the goal of steady economic growth, by contrasting the optimal status of the demand driving force structure of the modified hypothesis of improved steady state growth, the ratio of investment to (exports plus consumption) of China and region are not consistent with the optimal path change of the hypothesis in the perspective of steady growth of constant steady-state level of unit demand output and uniformly promoted steady-state level of unit demand output. At present, it is the best choice for China that realize the steady growth of uniformly promoted steady-state level of output, but if we want to achieve this goal, it is required to make the ratio of investment to (consumption plus export) expand at a steady pace. In order to achieve this requirement, it need to appropriately control the increasing speed of investment and rapidly promote the increasing speed of consumption and export in the eastern and central regions and maintain the current basic situation of investment and (consumption plus export) growth in western region in the near future.Under the constraint of the goal of intensive economic growth, by contrasting the index empirical value of optimal demand driving force structure under the factor contribution maximization hypothesis, the overall and regional ratio of investment to consumption, investment to export and investment to (consumption plus export) in China presently leads to the role of the labor and capital to economic growth to be in a non intensive state. Therefore, according to the overall and regional index empirical value of optimal demand driving force structure of China under the factor contribution maximization hypothesis, in order to realize the goal of promoting the intensive growth of economy, it is required to make the ratio of investment to consumption, investment to export and investment to (consumption plus export) gradually to be adjusted to the optimal value interval, but this needs each region to reasonablly control investment, expand consumption and increase or stable export demand according to their own actual.The above analysis shows that, the regional regulation of investment, consumption and export demand is crucial to improving the demand driving force structure and realizing the three goals of improving national welfare, stable growth and intensive growth of economy. Furthermore, the empirical analysis shows that the resident consumption demand is easily influenced by the national income distribution system, the resident income distribution structure, the population structure, the level of urbanization, the social security, the income growth rate of urban residents and the income growth rate of rural residents, etc.; the fixed asset investment demand is easily influenced by the level of industrialization, the national savings rate, the level of urbanization, the rate of return on investment, the foreign capital utilization, the growth rate of government tax, etc.; the export demand is easily influenced by the export product category concentration, the export area concentration, the human capital abundance, the trade structure of export products, the export rebate rate, the technical progress rate, etc. At the same time, changes of these factors will bring positive or negative impact on relevant demand driving force structure. Therefore, in order to realize the three goals of economic growth, China must appropriately make a few countermeasures to implement the structural adjustment of demand driving force on the basis of considering regional differences of China economic growth and the impact mechanism of these factors on the consumption, investment and export demands and the impact effect of these factors on the demand driving force structure.更多还原