【作者】 王金昌；

【导师】 岳意定；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 摘要：地方政府投融资平台是现有财税金融体制下,政府投融资活动的一种金融创新,对地方经济发展、经济结构调整和居民生活水平提高,做出了巨大贡献。但由于管理体制、市场环境、治理结构、运行机制等原因,平台面临债务率高、融资渠道单一、投资结构不合理、资金管理不规范、资金使用效率低等风险。这些风险的传导又引发政府系统、金融系统、宏观经济、民生等一系列经济社会风险。为此,本文重点开展了以下研究工作：(1)回顾了风险评价、风险管理等相关理论,总体分析了地方政府投融资平台的主要资产风险。(2)开展了地方政府投融资平台资产风险经济社会影响的研究。本文引入物流成本传导中介,结合大量实际数据,进一步完善了地方政府投融资平台资产风险传导机制。其传染路径如下：首先可能引发地方财政的风险,经中央财政最终传导到中央政府层面；可能引发银行系统的风险,经中央财政传导到中央政府层面；可能引发宏观调控风险并传导到中央政府层面；会直接造成水、电、住宅等民生商品价格的上涨；还会通过提高社会物流成本,间接引起民生商品价格上涨,从而放大了对民生商品价格上涨的风险。(3)应用系统理论,对地方政府投融资平台资产风险系统构成、环境构成及其相互关系进行分析,结合我国地方政府投融资平台运行现实和天津投融资平台实例具体分析了资产风险的形成过程,为后边深入分析平台资产风险影响因素、综合评价奠定基础。(4)构建了地方政府投融资平台资产风险影响因素的结构方程模型。平台资产风险的影响因素较多,这些因素之间可能是因果关系,也可能仅仅是相关关系,也可能是多重线性相关关系等等。传统回归模型并不能够深入解释这种错综复杂、彼此相互交叉的因素间的关系。本文基于大量理论文献建立了治理结构、投资决策市场化程度、资产结构的公益性倾向、管理水平、融资渠道和资产风险的结构方程模型,并基于调查数据进行探索性因子分析、验证性因子分析,以及变量之间关系的实证研究,定量解释了这些变量之间的影响路径和路径系数。(5)以省级政府综合投资公司为例,开展地方政府投融资平台资产风险评价的研究。首先,基于31家省级政府综合投资公司的数据,对初选的评价指标进行遴选,建立规范可靠的评价指标体系。然后,结合河南投资集团相关资料和数据,应用模糊综合评价方法,对其2009年和2010年资产风险进行计算和评价。(6)在前面实证研究的基础上,分别从系统要素优化、系统环境优化、关键点控制三个方面,提出了地方政府投融资平台资产风险控制的对策建议。通过提高投资决策的市场化程度,适度降低资产结构的公益性倾向,增强投资项目的管理水平,保持融资渠道的畅通等措施,从而降低地方政府投融资平台的资产风险。更多还原

【Abstract】 Abstract:Investment and financing platform of Local government is a kind of financial innovation of the government’s investment and financing activities, subject to the existing taxation and financial system. It has made great contribution to the development of local economic, the adjustment of economic structural and the improvement of residents living standards.However,confined to conrrent government management system, market environment, corporate governance structure and operation mechanism, the platform is facing difficulties like high debt ratios, single financing channel, irrational investment structure, low capital usage efficiency, etc. The transmission of these risk brought more risk in economic and social fields, such as in government system, financial system, macro economy, and the people’s livelihood. The main research work of this dissertation are as follows:(1)Part two of the dissertation gives an overview of risk assessment, risk management, and other related theory and method of financial assets and project investment, the overall analysis of the asset risk of local government investment and financing platform is also carried out.(2) Research on local government investment and financing platform asset risk the effects of economic and social. This paper introduces logistics cost conduction intermediary, combined with a large number of actual data, further perfect the local government investment and financing platform asset risk conduction mechanism. Local government investment and financing platform asset risk transmission path is as follows:the local government investment and financing platform risk assets of local finance risk, first by the central finance eventually transmitted to the central government level; The assets of the local government investment and financing platform risk caused the risk of the banking system, the central fiscal transmission to the central government level; The assets of the local government investment and financing platform risk macroeconomic regulation and control risk and transmitted to the central government level; Due to local government investment and financing platform risk assets directly, such as water, electricity and residential commodity prices of the people’s livelihood; The assets of the local government investment and financing platform risk by improving the social logistics cost, indirect cause commodity prices of the people’s livelihood, amplifying the risk of rising commodity prices of the people’s livelihood.(3) Application of system theory, the local government investment and financing platform risk assets system structure, environment and their relationship is analyzed, combined with China’s local government investment and financing platform running reality and tianjin local investment and financing platform for instance concrete analysis of the formation process of risk assets, assets behind for in-depth analysis of local government investment and financing platform risk factors and comprehensive early warning and lay the foundation.(4) Build the forming mechanism of local government investment and financing platform risk assets of structural equation model. The influence factors of local government investment and financing platform risk assets more, may be a causal relationship between these factors, it could have been, can also be multiple linear correlation and so on. Traditional regression model is not able to further explain the intricate, cross each other, the relationship between the factors. Governance structure is established based on the theory of a large number of literature, degree of marketization of investment decision, the structure of the assets of the public welfare orientation, management level, the financing channels and the risk of assets structure equation model, and based on the investigation data, exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis and the empirical study of relationship between variables, the quantitative interpretation between these variables affect the path and the path coefficient.(5)The government at the provincial level comprehensive investment company as an example, in local government financing platform assets risk comprehensive early warning research. First of all, based on the data of31provincial government comprehensive investment companies, the primary selection of early warning indicators, established a standard reliable asset risk early warning index system. Then, based on the relevant information and data of henan investment group, the application of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the2009and2010integrated early warning to calculate and assess risk assets.(6) Based on the former change empirical research,, put forward countermeasures and Suggestions of the risk control of local government investment and financing platform assets from three aspects of system elements, system environment optimization and the key points of the control. The local government investment and financing platform increase the degree of marketization of investment decisions, moderately reduce the tendency to assets structure of public welfare, enhance the level of management of investment projects, to keep financing channels unblocked, thereby reducing risk assets.更多还原