【作者】 周志刚；

【导师】 卓志；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 保险学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 2013年,全球共发生308次灾难事故,包括150次自然巨灾和158次人为灾难,共造成26000人死亡或失踪,直接经济损失达1400亿美元。而保险业承担了大约450亿美元的巨灾损失,其中82.2%的保险损失为自然巨灾所造成的、18.8%的是人为灾难造成的。1社会经济的发展、生活水平的提高、传媒资讯的丰富,科学技术的进步,在给我们的现代化生活带来便利的同时也使其变得越发脆弱。核能的发展利用在带来清洁能源的同时亦使得泄露危机的阴影挥之不去,基因技术在改善优化遗传密码的同时带来的未知影响遭到公众的抵制,地震灾害等自然巨灾带来人身财产伤亡的同时产生的群体性恐慌造成了灾后管理的困难。当前科学技术的发展已经使得哪怕是再微量的致害因子都可以被检测出来,于是影响人们的风险评估与决策的因素越来越归因于信息等沟通因素上。公众对于风险的主观评估和感知与专家又有着显著地区别,基于工具理性或概率预测的风险判断并不能促使公众采取灾害预防手段。对于信息来源的信任与否、信息包含内容的不同对于缺乏灾害知识的公众的影响亦不可小觑。传统经济学研究资源稀缺约束下人们的“选择”问题,对于“选择”背后的“偏好”问题亦是关注的焦点。随着理性经济人假设遭遇现实挑战,越来越多的研究开始聚焦于“偏好”背后的决策黑箱问题,认知神经学、神经经济学或者脑科学等新兴交叉学科的研究方兴未艾。气象灾害频发、地质灾害严重、恐怖事件盛行、核泄露威胁等巨灾冲击着脆弱的“理性经济人”,个体在突发事件中的反应、应对行为等成为风险社会中的关键议题。危险是客观存在的,而风险是社会建构的。风险感知则是个体对存在于外界各种客观风险的主观感受与认识。在遭受巨灾冲击后,个体的应对行为特别是风险决策将会因风险感知的变化而产生变化,这在心理学、社会学领域通过实验或问卷调查得到证实,而对个体经济行为特别是保险需求的研究较少。随着经典期望效用理论下对于不确定性条件下个体经济行为决策的预测能力的示弱,本文以心理学、社会学等跨学科视角切入,在有限理性学说的基础上探究个体在极小概率极大损失事件的经济决策过程及其影响因素。本文首先通过对风险定义的归纳与梳理,分析了风险的客观属性和社会属性,在风险社会放大机制的基础上研究了以风险传播的介质、载体与渠道为内涵的风险传播机理。从风险信息的单向传输到不同组织间的互动,风险沟通在重塑风险感知和地震灾害管理中的作用不容忽视。信任作为有效风险沟通的基础、信息作为风险传播的载体,两者是如何重塑和影响个体的地震风险水平以及感知因子亦是本文分析的重点之一。本文同时也研究了公众对信息提供主体的信任、信息内容的偏好等因素对地震风险感知的影响。个体对风险的评价不仅与突发事件和巨灾风险的客观属性有关,如概率的大小、损失程度的高低等,个体的情绪状态、先前经验、风险知识以及沟通程度同样会影响对风险的感知。本文通过问卷调查等实证研究的方法分析影响风险感知的维度、因素等。作为应对行为认知的一部分,本文紧接着研究了个体对保险的认知、保险接触渠道以及可靠性的主观判断等对保险购买意愿水平的影响。地震风险感知是个体对地震灾害的主观评估和判断,是链接客观威胁和应对行为的枢纽,本文在前述研究结论的基础上借鉴灾害应对行为模型,分析构建地震风险感知与保险购买意愿的传导机制,并通过理论模型、微观调查和宏观数据等实证方式对此路径进行证实。具体研究内容如下：本文的第0章针对论文的选题背景、研究意义、研究技术路线图以及研究方法进行了简要介绍和阐述,并总结了本文的创新点和不足。第1章主要针对地震风险感知和地震保险购买意愿的现有文献进行了梳理和综述,主要从风险感知及其维度、风险沟通与地震风险感知、地震风险感知与灾害应对行为、地震保险需求以及灾害应对行为模型进行了综述。第2章基本概念与理论基础。本章列出了不同学科领域对风险的定义、分类及其内涵,在此基础上分析讨论了风险客观属性和社会属性,并从风险的二重属性方面定义了本文所关注的风险的概念范围,并探讨了风险传播的介质、载体和渠道等风险传播机理。阐释了地震风险感知的内涵并比较了其与一般风险感知的相同点与不同点,界定了凤霞沟通和保险购买意愿的概念。接下来的一部分列出了本文研究的理论基础与学说,包括有限理性学说、行为经济学、风险沟通和风险感知理论以及风险管理论等。第3章地震风险感知分析。本章利用均值检验、单因素方差分析、均值差异性检验、判别分析等统计方法分析了被试距离地震中心的距离、地震经历、地震财产损失以及人口统计变量等对地震风险感知水平的影响。通过因子分析法提取了被试地震风险感知的四个维度,即概率因子、恐惧因子、控制因子和影响因子,并构建了地震风险感知的结构方程模型,发现恐惧因子对于地震风险感知具有显著正向影响,概率因子和影响因子具有相同的影响结果但程度稍弱,控制因子对地震风险感知具有负向的影响关系。第4章风险沟通与地震风险感知。本章通过不同地震信息供给主体、信息的客观程度、信息来源渠道以及关注地震信息内容的偏好等的调查结果发现被试对地震专家和政府部门的信任偏低、对电视广播以及网络媒体的信任较高,同时也认为地震专家和政府部门提供的信息倾向于保守、亲戚朋友和网络媒体的信息倾向于夸大。将因子分析法抽取的三个信任维度加入到上一章的地震风险感知结构方程模型中,模型拟合结果发现权威信任和传媒信任对风险感知水平有负向影响关系、而关系信任有正的影响关系。关于信息关注度与地震风险感知的研究与本章的其他部分一致,对地震信息需求强烈的被试具有较高的感知水平,关注正面信息将会降低感知水平而负面信息则会提高感知水平。第5章地震风险感知与地震保险购买意愿传导机制。本章在总结应对行为模型的基础上,构建了地震灾害冲击、地震风险感知与保险购买意愿的传导路径。在此路径中,巨灾冲击发生后在个体经历、群体交流以及风险社会放大机制下,在信任与信息等因素的影响下,通过对风险感知的四个维度引导与重塑个体地震风险感知水平,经由风险感知的链接与解读使个体做出购买保险应对地震灾害的行为意愿水平。在提出地震风险感知影响保险购买意愿的传导路径后,借助数学工具理论证明了地震风险感知的变化同向影响保险需求的假设。第6章地震风险感知与地震保险购买意愿—基于微观数据的实证。通过第5章构建的地震风险感知与保险购买意愿传导机制,本章在分析不同灾害应对行为模型的特点和共性的基础上建立了具体的影响路径,利用问卷调查的微观数据进行实证研究。结合问卷调查结果,分析了保险认知因素、地震经历、财产损失以及保险购买情况等因素对地震保险购买意愿的影响。构建的PTC保险购买意愿模型中,结构方程模型实证研究发现地震风险感知对保险购买意愿具有正的影响路径系数,权威信任和保险认知对保险购买意愿同样具有正向的影响路径系数,而关系信任对保险购买意愿具有负的影响关系。在控制了保险认知因素后的PT模型实证结果同样发现地震风险感知和权威信任对保险购买意愿具有正的影响路径系数,关系信任对保险购买意愿具有负的影响路径系数。最后通过仅包含地震风险感知与购买意愿的PW结构方程模型同样得到了与前两个模型相同的结论。结合三个逐步限制条件的模型可以得出地震风险感知对保险购买意愿正向影响的稳健结论。第7章地震风险感知与地震保险购买意愿—基于宏观数据的实证。本章以汶川地震灾害发生后的省级样本数据进一步证实基于问卷调查数据的实证结论。在没有地震保险保费收入数据的限制下,本文以财产保险保费作为公众保险需求变化的替代变量,用距离、地震经历等客观数据描述公众风险感知的变化,以寻求巨灾发生后给社会及人群带来的实体和心理冲击产生的风险感知变化引起的风险行为决策的变化。本章利用多元线性回归模型得出了与前一章一致的结论：巨灾冲击引起的地震风险感知水平高的样本内公众增加了对财产保险的需求。第8章研究结论与政策建议。本章总结了前几章的研究结论,并在研究结论和实证结果的基础,针对风险沟通、风险感知以及地震保险购买意愿提出了针对性的建议,如对于权威主体的信任缺失问题加强双向沟通、针对保险购买渠道信任危机和保险认知缺失方面提出的针对性建议等。本文基于有限理性学说、借鉴心理学研究范式、利用问卷调查方法、分析个体地震风险感知维度、研究风险沟通对风险感知的重塑与影响、构建感知到决策的传导机制、发现风险感知与保险购买意愿的影响路径。首先本文创新性的将行为经济学分析方法应用到地震保险购买意愿的研究中,可以更加深刻地分析影响保险需求的内在因素。在风险社会的环境中,风险沟通对风险感知的重塑和影响是必然的和不可避免的。有效的风险沟通不仅仅有助于个体形成客观理性的风险感知水平更有助于个体、组织、社会的风险管理。而信任是有效的风险沟通的前提和基础,尤其是在个体对风险缺少知识和认识时,本文的研究创新性的发现了权威信任、媒体信任和关系信任三个信任维度对感知的影响。再者本文从心理学、社会学等的视角以行为经济学的分析范式探讨个体在非完全理性的前提下的决策机制。创新性的构建了风险感知与购买意愿的传导机制,并通过理论证明、微观调查和宏观数据等多种方法证明和证实了本文构建的影响路径。更多还原

【Abstract】 In2013, there were308disaster events, of which150were natural catastrophes and158man-made. Almost26000people lost their lives or went missing in the disasters. The total economic losses from natural catastrophes and man-made disasters were around USD140billion last year. Insured losses were roughly USD45billion last year. Of the total, natural catastrophes generated USD37billion of losses, and man-made disasters the other USD8billion in claims.1Making our modern life more convenience and more vulnerable because of the development of social economy, growth in the living standard, the abundant of media information, the advanced science and technology. The use of nuclear energy is not only bringing clean energy but also the shadow of nuclear leak. Genetic technology is not only optimizing of the genetic code but also rejected by the public due to the unknown influence. The earthquake is not only making giant losses of human and property but also difficult to management of post-disaster. The advanced science and technology could detect the trace hazardous substance, so the first and foremost factor, which impacts the pubic appraisal risk and decide how to do, is the information. The public and the experts have a huge difference in risk appraisal and perception. It is cannot make the public to take measures based on the instrument rationality or probabilistic forecasting in risk judgment. And it does not neglect that the trust of information resources and the content, that will impact the public who are lacked of knowledge of disasters.Traditional economics research human’s choice under the constraints of limit resource, and also pay a lot of attentions on the preference behind the choice. As the assumption of rational agent with reality challenge, a growing number of studies began to focus on the black box of preference behind the problem, cognitive neuroscience, Neuroeconomics or brain nerve in emerging interdisciplinary studies. The catastrophes such as meteorological disasters, geological disasters, terrorist attacks and nuclear leaking shock the vulnerable rational-economic man. The public’s reaction and preparation to the urgent events become the key issues in the risk society. Crisis is real and the risk is construal. Risk perception is individual’s subjective feeling and understanding to the external various kinds of real crisis. After the shock of catastrophes, the individual’s coping behavior especially the decision of risk will be changed with the risk perception. And which is proved in Psychology and Sociology, but little studies on the prospect of economic and insurance demand.The ability of predict the Individual’s decision-making of economic behavior become weaken under the classical expected utility theory, with the prospect of Psychology and Sociology, this thesis studies Individual’s process of decision-making of Minimum probability of great loss risk based on the Bounded rationality.At first this article inducts and cards the definition of risk, analyze the risk’s objective attribute and social attribute, and then study the risk communication’s transmitter, carrier and channels based on social amplification of risk framework. It does not be ignored that the role of risk communication in reshaping the risk perception and earthquake disaster management, and risk communication had developed form risk information one-way transmission to the interactions between different interest groups. It is the key points of this article concern that how the trust and information impact and reshape the earthquake risk perception and the dimensions of risk perception, and trust is the basis and information is the carrier of effective risk communication. The individual’s risk appraisal is not only related to the urgent events and catastrophes risks’ objective attribute, such as the probability and severity, the emotion state, the experience, risk knowledge and risk communication also influence the risk perception. So this article studies the variables, which impact the risk perception dimensions by questioners and empirical research methods. As part of the cognition of coping behavior, the following of this article analyze the cognitive of insurance, the Insurance contacting channels and channels’reliability impact on the willingness to purchase the earthquake. Earthquake risk perception is the pivot linked the real threat and the coping behavior, which is the individual’s subjective appraisal of earthquake. And based on the research conclusions and coping behavior models, the author establish the transmission path from earthquake and willingness to purchase, after that the author prove the path by theoretical model, microscopic investigation and macroeconomic data. The specific details of this article as follows:The chaper0introduces the background of this selected topic, the research significance and the the technology roadmap of this reseach, and at last of this chapter summeriazed the advantages and disadvantages. Chapter1mainly review the studies of eqthquake risk perception and willingness to purchase eqrthquake insurance in such parts, risk perception and its’ dimensions, risk communication and perception, eqthquake risk perception and coping behaviors and the demand of earthquake insurance.Chapter2The basic definition and theriotical basis.In this chapter the authour firstly listing the definition of risk, classification and it’s connotation in different areas, secondly analyzing the objective and social attributes on the basis above and defining the conception of risk in this thesis, discussing the media, carrier and channels of risk communication. The following the explanation of earthquake risk perception and comparing the difference between that and everydaylife risk perception. The last of this chapter is the defintion of willingness to purchase earthquake isnurance. The following parts of this chaper is the theriotical basis such as bounded rational, risk communicaiton and risk management.Chapter3The analysis of earthquake risk perception. This chapter studies the distance between original earthquake, the earthquake experience, losses in the earthquake and demographic variables influence on the earthquake risk perception by statistics methods such as mean test, one-way analysis of variance, The mean difference test and discriminant analysis. Then the author extracts four factors of earthquake risk perception dimensions by Factor analysis, which are subjective probability, dread, control and impact. The founding of this chapter in last part is that the factors subjective probability, dread, and impact have the positive influence path coefficient and control has the opposite relationship by Structural equation model.Chapter4Risk communication and Earthquake Risk Perception。The beginning of this chapter show the result of the subject who supply earthquake information and the information’s degree of objective and preference contents of the information, and form the questionnaire the author find that the public have a relative low trust of government department and earthquake experts but have a high trust of TV and broadcast and Internet. From the questionnaire we also find that the public think the information supplied by government department and earthquake experts is tend to exaggerate, and other parties have the opposite result. Then we add the three trust dimensions be extracted by factors analysis into the SEM which established and proved in last chapter, the result of model fitting show that Trust of Authority and Trust of Media can lower the level of Earthquake Risk Perception, but the Trust of Relationship can enhance the level of Earthquake Risk Perception. The last part of this Chapter study the contents of earthquake information and the degree of awareness’ impact on the Earthquake Risk Perception, which have the same conclusion like the above analysis.Chapter5The transmission mechanism of Earthquake Risk Perception and Willingness to Purchase Earthquake Insurance. After review the coping behavior models and find the generality of these models, the author establish the transmission path between earthquake shock, Earthquake Risk Perception and willingness to purchase. In this path, the individual be shocked by the earthquake, the trust and information influence the risk perception by the directive experience, the communication with others and SARF, which reshaped in the four dimensions. At the third step individual make subjective appraisal linked by risk perception and make decision of willingness to purchase. Then the transmission path is proved by theoretically。Chapter6Earthquake Risk Perception and Willingness to Purchase Earthquake Insurance-Based on the questionnaire data. Based on the transmission path established in the last chapter, at beginning this chapter constructs the reality model of Earthquake Risk Perception and Willingness to Purchase Earthquake Insurance, which proved by the questionnaire data. By the PTC model, SEM’s result shows that Earthquake Risk Perception has positive influence path coefficient on WTP, Trust of Authority and Cognitive of insurance have the same conclusion, but the Trust of Relationship have negative influence on WTP. The PT Model which constraints of cognitive of insurance have the same result with PTC Model, and the similarity with PW model which is only consist of Earthquake Risk Perception and WTP.Chapter7Earthquake Risk Perception and Willingness to Purchase Earthquake Insurance-Based on the macroeconomics data. In this chapter the author uses the macroeconomics data after Wenchuan Earthquake to verify the result we had in the last chapter. Because of the lack of insurance product in the mainland of our country, this chapter uses the increase of property insurance reflecting the earthquake insurance demand. And also have the same conclusion with the SEMs by using the multiple linear regression model.Chapter8Research conclusions and policy recommendations. This chapter summarize the research conclusions and give some policy recommendations form risk communication, risk perception and demand of earthquake insurance based on the research conclusions.This research based on the bounded rational, borrowing psychology research paradigm, using the method of questionnaire survey, analyzing the factors of earthquake, studying risk communication influences and reshapes the risk perception, establishing and finding the transmission path of Earthquake risk perception and willingness to purchase insurance. This thesis studied the demand of insurance in the behavior economics prospective innovatively, which could us know more deeply. It is Inevitable and unavoidable that risk communication influence and reshape the risk perception in risk society, so effective communication is important for risk management for individual, organization and society. And we also know that trust is the precondition and the foundation of the effective risk communication, especially when the public is lack of knowledge of disasters, from this point the thesis found the three dimensions of trust innovatively will be helpful. At last and the most important is that this thesis establishes and proves the transmission path between earthquake shock, Earthquake Risk Perception and willingness to purchase innovatively, that gives us a new prospective and more deeply for studying of demand of insurance.更多还原