【作者】 代灵敏；

【导师】 朱明熙；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 财政学， 2014， 博士

【副题名】基于税收、贫富差距与经济发展之间关系的视角

【摘要】 改革开放以来,我国经济发展取得了令人可喜的成就,2013年国内生产总值(GDP)为57.2万亿元；2001-2011年间,国内生产总值年均增长率达到10.4%,处于世界领先水平。2009年我国出口总量达到世界第一,2010年我国以401512.8亿元GDP总量首次超越日本,成为美国之后的世界第二大经济体；从2000年GDP世界排名第七,到成为世界第二大经济体,我国只用了9年,速度之快,令人叹为观止①。但同时,这种以“GDP增长至上”为核心的经济发展模式,不但透支了中国的环境和资源,而且也过度透支了中国的人力资本。迄今为止的发展,我国走的还是类似于发达国家走过的老路：以拼资源、拼人力、高耗能、高污染的粗放式发展模式。伴随着经济的高速发展,很多不平衡、不协调、不和谐的问题也日益凸显,其中最严重的便是不断扩大的贫富差距。中国社会科学2013年12月26日发布的《社会蓝皮书：2014年中国社会形势分析与预测》指出,2013年贫富分化取代物价、房价问题成为最受关注的社会问题。据国家统计局2013年所发布的基尼系数,2012年为0.474,2003-2012年平均值为0.4814；另据西南财经大学公布的一份中国家庭金融调查结果显示,2010年中国家庭的基尼系数为0.61,其中城镇家庭内部的基尼系数为0.56,农村家庭内部的基尼系数为0.60,大大高于国际公认的0.4警戒水平,而且也超过了0.44的全球平均水平②。此外,据王小鲁(2009)估算,2008年中国隐性收入高达9.26万亿,几乎占当年GDP的三分之一；而且据研究,9.26万亿的隐性收入中,最高10%收入家庭占有了63%,最高20%高收入家庭占有了80%以上；如果按照包括隐性收入的数据去计算基尼系数,其值要远远大于国家统计局发布的水平。贫富差距过大必然会通过各种途径阻碍经济发展,按照现行状况继续发展下去,我国很有可能陷入“拉美化”、“印尼化”的“中等收入陷阱”。而且,过份悬殊的贫富差距和两极分化,必然使社会发生分裂,形成穷人与富人、群众与官员、人民与政府之间的对立,严重时必然产生社会动荡。而目前国家针对调节贫富差距的税收政策又不能很好地发挥其作用,现行过度依赖于以流转税为主的税制结构、个人所得税等税种本身存在的问题,以及税收征管体系和社会经济运行秩序存在的种种问题,使得税收对贫富差距调节几乎无能力为。鉴于我国税收存在的这一严重问题,本文拟从税收、贫富差距与经济发展之间相互关系的视角,透析当前税制和税收征管,以及相关经济与社会现状,找出背后深层次原因,并提出如何优化税收政策建议,以期对我国下一步的税制、经济与社会改革有所裨益。本文拟通过系统深入的研究,从税收、贫富差距与经济发展关系的视角,探究我国现阶段税制优化状况,从而得出适应我国现阶段经济发展要求的税制结构。自94年税制改革以来,我国没有进行过实质上的税制变动,随着现阶段贫富差距的加大,经济发展结构不合理程度的加深,现行税制结构有必要变动了。本文首先研究贫富差距过大对经济发展的阻碍作用,然后从税制优化的角度,即通过调整税制,有效发挥税收的调节作用,缩小我国贫富差距,从而促进经济、社会协调发展。全文共分为六章,主要内容和观点如下：第一章,导论。简要阐明论文的选题背景、意义,以及研究目的,介绍论文的研究方法和主体研究框架。在此基础上,阐述了税制优化、贫富差距与经济发展这三个关键词的学术含义,以及我国贫富差距、经济发展现状,并提出了论文可能的创新点及主要不足之处。第二章,国内外文献综述及研究现状。本部分从国内、国外两个角度分别对相关文献进行归纳和总结,主要包括几个方面：贫富差距与经济发展之间相互关系,税制优化,税收与贫富差距之间的关系,以及税收、贫富差距与经济发展之间相互关系。第三章,税收、贫富差距与经济发展之间相互关系的理论分析。(1)贫富差距对经济发展影响的数学模型分析；贫富差距过大,通过经济发展环境、社会稳定等途径来影响经济发展状况；(2)理论上分析了所得税、流转税和财产税是如何调节收入、贫富差距的,以及税收、贫富差距与经济发展之间的一个相互影响的逻辑关系。第四章,税收、贫富差距与经济发展之间相互关系的国际实证分析。(1)美国两次世界大危机爆发的原因,以及美国个人所得税与贫富差距之间的关系；(2)发达国家税收、贫富差距与经济发展之间的关系,这里主要包括英国、德国、法国和日本；(3)与发达国家进行对比,本章实证分析了发展中国家税收、贫富差距与经济发展之间的关系；(4)通过100多年的长时间序列数据,对Kuznets倒“U”曲线提出了质疑。第五章,税收、贫富差距与经济发展之间相互关系的国内现状分析。(1)利用2005—2011年宏观数据,建立计量经济模型,对我国贫富差距与经济发展之间关系进行实证分析；(2)通过“税制结构——税种设计——税收征管——社会经济基本秩序”这样四位一体的模式,并结合当前实际情况,分析我国税收对贫富差距调节作用不彰的原因；(3)重点分析了隐性收入的存在对贫富差距的影响,以及我国税收征管体系对隐性收入无能为力的状况。第六章,中国税制优化的现实选择。当前我国税制优化的指导思想就是,税制优化是一个动态的、推陈出新的过程；税制优化必须从中国实际经济情况出发；发挥税收调节作用的前提——破除市场万能论!在此基础上,本章从“税制结构——税种设计——税收征管——社会经济基本秩序”的角度,总结和借鉴OECD国家经验和教训,对现阶段我国税收进行一个系统的优化设计,并提出可供参考的政策与建议。如上所述,税制优化是一个复杂的动态过程。目前相关研究主要关注某一单独税种的优化,而且囿于数据获取的局限性,更多地针对完善税收的相关理论问题展开讨论。本文在充分借鉴和吸收前人研究成果的基础上,力图在以下几个方面有所突破与创新。(1)独特的研究视角。先前已有的税制优化研究文献可以说是相当多,但他们往往是单从税收与贫富差距之间、或者单从税收与经济发展之间、或者同时基于贫富差距与经济发展之间关系的角度去分析税制优化问题。不同于以往的研究成果,本文从税收、贫富差距与经济发展三者之间关系的视角去研究我国现阶段的税制优化问题。其思路是,以贫富差距为中介,通过税收对贫富差距的影响,并进而影响经济发展,比起以往税制优化的研究又前进了一步。(2)就隐性收入对税收调节作用的影响进行了深入研究。利用学术界关于隐性收入对贫富差距影响的分析结果,就税收和征税环境如何优化进行研究,以期对税收调节提出相关的政策建议。关于税收调节贫富差距的研究,更多论文所使用的数据都是来自中国国家统计局等权威部门,诚然,这些数据具有一定的代表性。但是,由于这些数据所呈现出的事实和我们平时在生活中的亲身体会相去甚远。因此,本文在利用当前关于隐性收入已有研究成果的基础上(见王小鲁的研究),着重研究了税收在这种条件下如何约束其调节贫富差距的作用,并就税收和征税环境如何优化以利于税收调节的发挥提出相关的政策建议。(3)对理论界流行的Kuznets倒“U”曲线理论提出了的质疑。本文利用以美国为主的西方发达国家近100年的历史数据来验证Kuznets倒U曲线假说的真实性。研究结果表明,从长期来看,西方发达国家的收入分配根本不存在Kuznets倒“U”曲线的变化,即便是上个世纪50-70年代西方发达国家出现的贫富差距缩小,也不是经济发展和市场经济自动调节的结果。恰恰相反,而是政府这只“有形之手”调节的结果。而政府之所以调节的背后,恰恰是经济、社会、政治矛盾激化的结果。这个分析结果不仅对Kuznets倒“U”曲线的自动调节理论提出了质疑,而且,对于我国当下如何有效遏制日益恶化的贫富差距,缓解经济、社会、政治的不平衡、不协调和不可持续的矛盾,促进其和谐、健康发展,也是有相当意义的。更多还原

【Abstract】 China has made gratifying economic achievements at this stage. The gross domestic product (GDP) was57.2trillion RMB in2013. The average annual GDP growth rate was10.4%from2001to2011, one of the highest in the world. China’s total export volume ranked first in the world in2009. China surpassed Japan to become the world’s second largest economy after the United States for the first time in2010with the GDP of40.15128trillion RMB. It only took China nine years to grow from an economy which ranked No.7in the world in terms of GDP to become the world’s second largest economy. It is a spectacular development rate.But at the same time, this economic development model of "GDP growth first" as the core not only overdrew China’s environment and resources, but also excessively over drafted China’s human resources. So far, the development style of our country is similar to the developed countries:a crude mode of development of utilizing natural and human resources excessively, high energy consumption, and high pollution. With the rapid economic development, a lot of unbalanced, uncoordinated and discordant issues have become increasingly prominent, the most serious of which is the widening wealth gap." Social Blue Book:China Social Situation Analysis and Forecast in2014", released by China Social Sciences on December26,2013, pointed that the wealth gap has replaced the prices of commodities and house, becoming the most urgent social problem in2013. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Gini Coefficient was0.474in2012, annual average of2003-2012was0.4814; According to a Chinese household financial survey conducted by Southwest University of Finance and Economy, Gini coefficient of Chinese families was0.61in2010, where the Gini coefficient of interior urban households was0.56and Gini coefficient of interior rural households was0.60, much higher than the internationally recognized warning level of0.4, and also exceeded the global average of0.44. In addition, according to Xiaolu Wang (2009), China’s hidden income was estimated to be up to9.26trillion in2008, accounting for almost one-third of that year’s GDP; And according to research, the top10%of high-income families possess63%of the9.26trillion hidden income, and the top20%of high-income families occupy more than80%of the9.26trillion hidden income; If you include the hidden income data to calculate the Gini coefficient, the value would be much greater than the released number by China.The large gap is bound to inhibit economic development in a variety of ways. If the current situation continues, our country is very likely to fall into the Latin American or Indonesia style "middle-income trap". Moreover, excessive wealth gap and polarization in income distribution will inevitably result in split in society and opposition between the rich and the poor, the officials and the masses, the government and the people, and if serious, will be bound to have serious social unrest. However, the present national tax policy to adjust the gap between the rich and the poor cannot play its role very well. A tax structure which over-relies on turnover tax, personal income tax and other taxes inherent problems, as well as problems in tax collection system and social economic operation order, make the tax almost no ability to regulate the gap between the rich and the poor. In view of this serious problem of our tax system, the paper analyses the current tax system and tax collection and the related economic and social situation from the perspective of the relationships among tax, wealth gap, and economic development, identifies reasons behind underlying causes, makes policy optimization recommendations, in aim to be of help in our next tax, economic and social reform.Through a systematic and comprehensive study, from the perspective of the relationship among tax, wealth gap, and economic development, the paper explores the situation of China’s current tax system optimization, to discover the tax structure which adapts to the requirements of the present stage of economic development. There have been no changes in our tax system substantially since1994when the tax was reformed. With the increasing wealth gap at the current stage, the deepening level of the irrational economic development structure, the existing tax structure is necessary to change. This paper firstly studies the impediment of the wealth gap to the economic development and from the perspective of tax system optimization suggests adjust the tax structure, to narrow the wealth gap, thus contribute to steady economic growth. The thesis is divided into six chapters, with the main content and viewpoint as follows:Chapter1. Introduction. The chapter briefly clarifies the research background, significance and purposes, and describes research methods and main research framework. On this basis, the chapter clarifies academic meanings of these three keywords:tax system optimization, the wealth gap, and economic development, describes the current situation of the wealth gap and economic development in our country, and points out possible innovation points and major deficiencies in the paper.Chapter2. Literature review and research status at home and abroad. The section summarizes relevant literatures from both domestic and foreign perspectives, including several aspects:the relationship between wealth disparity and economic development, and the relationship among tax system optimization, tax, and wealth gap, as well as the relationship among tax, wealth disparity, and economic development.Chapter3. The section makes a theoretical analysis of relationship among tax, wealth disparity, and economic development.(1) The mathematical model analysis of the impact on economic development by wealth disparity. The wealth gap influences economic development through the economic development environment, social stability, and other ways;(2) The section theoretically analyzes how income tax, turnover tax, and property tax adjust income and wealth gap, and the logical interacting relationship among tax, wealth gap, and economic development.Chapter4. The section empirically analyzes the relationship between tax, wealth gap, and economic development.(1) Reasons for two big world economic crises in the United States, and the relationship between personal income tax and wealth gap in the United States (2) Relationships among tax, wealth gap, and economic development in developed countries, including the UK, Germany, France, and Japan;(3) Comparison of developed countries. This chapter empirically analyzes the relationships among tax, wealth gap, and economic development in developing countries;(4) This chapter raises questions on Kuznets "inverted U" curve with100years1long time series data Chapter5. Empirical Analysis on relationships among tax, wealth gap, and economic development in China.(1)The section establishes an econometric model using macro data from2005to2011, and analyzes the relationships between the economic development and wealth gap in China;(2) the section analyzes reasons for lack of influence of our tax system on wealth gap through a four-in-one model of "tax system structure-tax type design-tax collection®ulation-basic social and economic order", with the combination of the current situation;(3) The section analyzes impact of the existence of hidden income on the wealth gap, as well as the current situation where the tax revenue collection and management system in China has powerless control over hidden income.Chapter6. The realistic choice of China’s tax system optimization. The current guideline of China’s tax system optimization is that tax system optimization is a dynamic and innovative process; therefore, tax system optimization must proceed from the actual economic situation in China, and the premise for tax collection to play an adjustment role is-to get rid of the omnipotent view of the market economy. On this basis, from the perspective of "tax system structure-tax type design-tax collection®ulataion-basic social and economic order", this chapter summarize and uses experiences and lessons of OECD countries for reference, and designs a systematic optimization of China’s tax revenue collection, and proposes policies and suggestions for reference.As mentioned above, the tax system optimization is a complex dynamic process. Current related researches focus on the optimization of a single tax type, and confine to the data obtaining limitation, and discuss on related theoretical issues to perfect tax system. By making use of previous study results, the paper tries to make a breakthrough and innovation in the following areas.(1) Unique research perspective. Unlike previous research results, the paper studies China’s current tax system optimization problem from the perspective of the relationship among tax, wealth gap, and economic development. The idea is based on the wealth gap as the intermediary, through the impact of taxation on the wealth gap, and thus affect economic development, therefore a step forward from previous researches on tax system optimization.(2) Committed to research on hidden income. This paper utilizes the previous academic results of analysis of the impact of hidden income on the wealth gap, and studies how to optimize tax collection and tax environment in order to make policy recommendations on the tax regulation. Previous studies on regulation of tax on wealth gap used data from authorizes like Chinese National Bureau of Statistics. These data have some representation admittedly. However, these data show a far different fact from we usually experience in real life. Therefore, on the basis of results achieved by previous researches on hidden income (see studies of Xiaolu Wang), this paper focuses on how tax plays its role in adjusting the wealth gap under this situation, and make policy recommendations on how to optimize the tax collection environment in order to facilitate tax regulation.(3) To raise a question on the popular Kuznets’inverted U-curve theory. In this paper, we use nearly100years’historical data of western developed countries, mainly the United States to verify the Kuznets’inverted U-curve hypothesis authenticity. The results show that the income distribution in western developed countries do not show Kuznets’inverted U-curve ", and even when the wealth gap was narrowed during the fifties and seventies of the20th century in the western developed countries, economic development and automatic market adjustment were not the reason. On the contrary, it resulted from the regulation of the government "visible hand". The government regulation was the result of intensification of conflicts among economy, society, and politics. This analysis not only raise doubts on " Kuznets’ inverted U-curve" theory on automatic regulation, but also have considerable significance on how to effectively curb the worsening gap between the rich and the poor, to alleviate the unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable economic, social, and political contradictions, and to promote harmonious and healthy development.更多还原