【作者】 李海英；

【导师】 向蓉美；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 统计学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 随着以二氧化碳为主的温室气体排放量的不断增长,由温室气体引发的气候变化问题引起了世界各国的广泛关注。联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第五次评估报告明确指出：对于观测到的20世纪中叶以来全球气候变暖的现象,人为影响极有可能是主要原因。我国是目前全球二氧化碳排放量最多的国家,在国际社会面临很大的减排压力。由于我国目前正处于工业化发展中期,城镇化建设和各项基础设施建设需要消耗大量化石能源,未来很长一段时期内随着化石能源需求的持续增长,化石能源燃烧产生的二氧化碳等温室气体排放量的持续增长不可避免,绝对数量的减排与经济增长之间必然存在冲突。针对我国国情,我国政府做出至2020年我国二氧化碳强度在2005年基础上减少40%至45%的承诺。在不影响我国经济稳定增长的前提之下,如何实现我国的减排承诺,制定符合我国国情的减排政策以降低我国二氧化碳强度成为值得关注和研究的问题。本文在明确研究对象的基础上,通过对大量的文献总结与分析,尝试运用清单法对我国能源活动产生的二氧化碳排放量进行核算,并对我国二氧化碳排放历史特征、行业特征、区域特征进行分析,进而进行二氧化碳强度的国际比较,总结二氧化碳强度的变化特点和规律；在此基础上提出本文主要的理论基础和研究方法,通过引入经济——资源——环境投入产出表建立二氧化碳强度投入产出模型,运用结构分解法对二氧化碳强度的变动进行分析；进一步,对能源消费原始数据进行预处理,编制1997-2010年可比价投入产出序列表以满足实证分析需要；运用IO-SDA模型对我国二氧化碳强度进行实证分析,找出我国二氧化碳强度降低的有利因素与不利因素；最后,针对实证分析结果提出相应的减排对策。主要内容可以分为以下几个部分：第1章为绪论。本章主要对研究的目的、背景和意义进行阐述,界定本文研究对象与范围,介绍本文研究的主要内容、研究思路、研究方法、技术路线、论文的创新点和不足之处。第2章为国内外文献综述。本章对二氧化碳排放的几种核算方法进行了介绍,着重对本文采用的清单法进行了详细的阐述。对二氧化碳排放与二氧化碳强度研究中常用的两种因素分解法——指数分解法和结构分解法进行了回顾和分析,确定基于投入产出模型的结构分解法作为本文主要的实证分析方法。第3章主要依据清单法对我国能源活动二氧化碳排放量进行核算,在此基础上对当前我国二氧化碳排放特征进行总结。从二氧化碳排放总量来看各省区二氧化碳排放呈现不平衡性；从二氧化碳强度变动趋势来看,除个别省份外大部分省区二氧化碳强度呈下降趋势；从二氧化碳排放的行业特征来看,能源生产和能源加工转换行业、工业制造业、交通运输业二氧化碳排放量明显高于其他行业；通过二氧化碳排放总量、人均二氧化碳排放量、二氧化碳强度的国际对比发现,虽然我国二氧化碳排放总量居世界首位,但人均二氧化碳排放量并不高；我国二氧化碳强度虽然近年来一直呈下降趋势,但和西方发达国家相比,总体水平依然较高,还存在很大的下降空间。第4章主要阐述本文研究所依据的理论基础和方法模型,包括低碳经济理论、投入产出分析法、可比价投入产出表的编制原理、非竞争型投入产出模型和结构分解法。通过引入经济——资源——环境投入产出表,建立二氧化碳强度投入产出模型并运用结构分解法对我国二氧化碳强度的变动进行分解。第5章主要对数据进行预处理以满足实证分析的需要。首先对能源消费数据进行相应的部门合并,以确保能源数据的部门分类与可比价投入产出序列表的部门分类保持一致,并将分品种能源由实物量单位转换为标准煤单位；其次对1997年、2002年、2007年、2010年当年价投入产出表制定统一的表式和部门分类标准,并根据部门分类标准对各年当年价投入产出表进行相应的部门合并；然后确定价格基年以及各部门的生产价格指数,最后依据价格指数运用第4章介绍的可比价投入产出表的编制原理依据当年价投入产出序列表编制以2002年为价格基年的1997—2010年可比价投入产出序列表。第6章基于二氧化碳强度投入产出结构分解(IO-SDA)模型对我国二氧化碳强度变动进行实证研究。将经济总体二氧化碳强度与各部门经济二氧化碳强度的变动分解为能源结构效应、能源强度效应、投入结构效应、进口替代效应、最终需求产品结构效应和最终产品使用结构效应,并将影响因素归为生产模式与需求模式两类。实证分析结果表明：生产模式的变化是我国二氧化碳强度下降的主要原因,需求模式的变化是我国二氧化碳强度降低的主要阻碍因素。第7章基于实证分析结果,分别从优化能源结构、降低能源强度、调整和优化产业结构、促进技术进步、培养低碳需求模式等方面对降低我国二氧化碳强度提出政策建议。结语部分对全文进行总结并对后继研究进行展望。本文的创新点主要体现在以下三个方面：1.运用清单法对我国能源活动二氧化碳排放进行核算的过程中采取了新的处理方法以降低误差。由于《2006年IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》中能源分类与各年份《中国统计年鉴》中能源分类并不完全一致,本文结合我国颁布的《综合能耗计算通则》及《省级温室气体清单编制指南》确定分品种能源的二氧化碳排放因子、单位热值含碳量及碳氧化率,比《2006年IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》中相应的缺省值更符合我国实际情况；由于受数据可获得性的限制,出现能源的非燃料用途及能源损失量等数据无法取得而使得能源消费数据大于实际值而导致二氧化碳总排放量计算结果偏大的问题,本文尝试将这种偏差通过二氧化碳排放因子取95%置信区间下限的方法进行修正。2.引入经济——资源——环境投入产出表建立二氧化碳强度投入产出模型。经济——资源——环境投入产出表将投入产出分析的研究领域拓展到资源领域和环境领域,将经济流量表、资源投入表和污染物排放表中的数量关系进行有机的衔接,揭示经济、资源、环境之间的内在数量联系,在经济——资源——环境投入产出表基础上建立的二氧化碳强度投入产出模型能够更清晰的反映二氧化碳强度与能源投入结构、能源强度、中间投入结构、最终需求产品结构、最终产品使用结构之间的关系,以实现对二氧化碳强度的分析和研究。3.利用不同的价格指数编制了1997-2010年中国可比价投入产出序列表。在编制可比价投入产出序列表过程中,对于工业各部门产品的可比价缩减,本文采用按行业分工业品出厂价格指数；由于无法获取第三产业各部门产品生产价格指数,第三产业各部门产品的可比价缩减采用第三产业价格平减指数近似地作为第三产业产品生产价格指数。同时,可比价投入产出序列表中的2007年、2010年可比价投入产出表是国内现有的可比价投入产出表编制领域内的最新成果。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the gradual increment of greenhouse gas emissions mainly include carbon dioxide, the problem of climate change which caused by greenhouse gas is now attracting widespread attention in the world. The fifth appraisal report of IPCC shows clearly:Man-made influence is very likely to be the main reason for the global warming phenomenon observed since the middle of20th century. Our country is facing up to great pressure of reducing emissions in the global society because it is our country that has the largest global carbon dioxide emissions currently, and therefore our country is in the face of great pressure of reducing emissions. Urbanization and various infrastructure construction need to consume lots of fossil energy as our country is currently in the middle of industrialization, As the demand for fossil energy continues to grow for a long period in the future, the continuing growth of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions is inevitable, so there will be a conflict between absolute number of emission reduction and economic growth inevitably. In view of the situation of our country, in2009our government made a promise that reducing carbon dioxide intensity40%to45%by2020. Under the premise of steady economic growth in China, how to realize our emissions reduction promise and how to establish the appropriate emissions reduction policy so that decrease the carbon dioxide intensity of our country have become a problem which needs great attention.Carbon dioxide intensity is chosen as the research object in this article. Through the review and analysis of a large number of relevant literatures in this paper, the main theoretical basis and research methods are put forward, with the introduction of economic resources and environment input-output tables, input-output model of carbon dioxide intensity is established. Based on input-output model of carbon dioxide intensity, structural decomposition analysis (IO-SDA) model is adopted to analyze the factors that influence the carbon dioxide intensity, determine the effect of various factors, summarize favorable factors and unfavorable factors for reducing the carbon dioxide intensity and the corresponding measures to reduce emissions is put forward according to the empirical analysis results. Main contents can be divided into the following several parts:Chapter1is the introduction. This chapter mainly demonstrates the background and significance, defines the object and scope of this research and introduces the main contents, research ideas, methods, innovation points and also shortcomings of the article.Chapter2mainly focus on the literature review at home and abroad, induces several methods of accounting carbon dioxide emissions, especially has an detailed introduction and summary of inventory method which is adopted in this article. And also compares and analyzes two factor decomposition methods:one is index decomposition method and the other is structural decompositional approach, both of which are widely used in research of carbon dioxide intensity, chooses structure decomposition method based on input-output model as the main method of empirical analysis in this paper.Chapter3mainly carries out an accounting of the quantities of carbon dioxide emissions according to inventory method, and makes a summary of the features of carbon dioxide emissions on the basis of it. Look back the total quantity of carbon dioxide emissions, it takes on an imbalance in various provinces; from the variation trend of carbon dioxide intensity, carbon dioxide intensity is on the decline in most provinces except individual places. From the industry features of carbon dioxide emissions, the quantities of carbon dioxide emissions in energy production and processing and transformation industry, industrial manufacturing industry and transportation industry are obviously more over than other industries; By comparing the total quantities of carbon dioxide emissions, the quantity of carbon emissions per capita, carbon dioxide intensity in international world, the results show the quantity of carbon emissions per capita is not high although the total quantity of carbon dioxide emissions in China is the highest in the world. Even though the carbon dioxide intensity has been decreasing in recent years in our country, comparing to western developed countries, the overall level is still higher, and there is still a great deal of room for decreasing. Chapter4introduces the theoretical and approach basis of the research in the article, mainly demonstrates the theoretical basis and method model includes the theory of low-carbon economy, input-output analysis, the compiling principle of comparable price of input-output table, the noncompetitive input-output model and structural decomposition analysis. Through bringing into the input-output table of economy-resourse-enrvironment, establishes input-output model of carbon dioxide intensity and apply structural decomposition analysis to disassemble the alteration of carbon dioxide intensity.Chapter5pays close attention to the data preprocessing largely. Firstly, makes a corresponding combination with all data of energy consumption from all departments in order to make sure the industry classification of energy data and the comparable price input-output sequential tables keep the same; Secondly, sets up the form for input-output table and standard for department classification for the year of1997,2002,2007and2010, and makes a corresponding combination to the input-output table of current prices according to the department classification standard; Then set the price base year and producer price index, and finally compiles comparable price input-output sequential table from1997-2010taking2002as the price base year, which adopts the compiling principles of comparable price input-output table introduced in Chapter3according to the price index and the input-output sequential table at current price.An empirical research on the variation factors of influencing carbon dioxide intensity is carried out on the basis of the input-output model of carbon dioxide intensity in Chapter6, and structural decomposition analysis (IO-SDA) is adopted in the research. Disassembling overall economy carbon dioxide intensity and the variation of carbon dioxide intensity in respective departments into energy structure effect, energy intensity effect, technology effect, import replacement effect, final demand product structure effect and final demand distribution structure effect and classifies influenced factors into production mode and demand mode. The result of the empirical research shows that it is the change of production mode that be responsible for the decrease of carbon dioxide intensity in our country. But the main obstructive factor of influencing carbon dioxide intensity is the change of demand mode. Based on the result of the empirical research Chapter7puts forward some policies and suggestions to decrease carbon dioxide intensity from the following aspects:optimizing the energy structure, adjusting and optimizing industrial structure, promoting the advancement of technology, training low carbon demand mode etc. The ending is the summary and prospect, summarizes the whole dissertation and also includes the prospect of further research. Three innovative points mainly are as follows:1. On the basis of looking back lots of literatures relevant to the accounting of greenhouse gas, refers to the method of accounting carbon dioxide emissions provided in The2006IPCC country listing guidelines of greenhouse gases(Hereinafter referred to as the guide) and accounts the carbon dioxide emissions which produced by energy activities. Because the classification of energy in The guide does not completely correspond with the classification of energy in China Statistical Yearbook, the dissertation combines The general principles of the comprehensive energy consumption calculation and Provincial greenhouse gas inventories preparation guidelines so that set carbon dioxide emissions factors due to various energies and the unit content of calorific value and oxygenation efficiency, which more suitable for the current situation of our country than the default value provided in the Guide; Because of the limitation of acceptable data, some data such as loss of energy processing and transformation, energy loss, non fuel purpose of energy and so on, could not be accepted, which results in the data of energy consumption is greater than practical value so that arouses a problem that the result of calculating the total quantity of carbon dioxide emissions trends to be greater. The dissertation attempts to modify the deviation by using the method that taking the lower limit of95%confidence interval in carbon dioxide emissions factors. This processing method has not been found in relevant researches.2. The dissertation brings into input-output table of economy-resource-environment to set up input-output model of carbon dioxide intensity. The input-output table of economy-resource-environment links up the data relationship smoothly in economy flow table, resource input table, pollution emission table and reveals the inner relationship between economy, resource and environment in order to analyze the carbon dioxide intensity. 3. In the process of compiling comparable price input-output table, all products in various departments in current price input-output table need to be deflated correspondingly by adopting producer price index of the products in various departments. For the deflation of comparable price of the products in industrial departments, the dissertation makes use of producer price index according to industry. Because it is impossible to get the producer price index in the various departments in the tertiary industry, price index in the tertiary industry is adopted in the deflation of comparable price of the products in the tertiary industry, just as the producer price index approximately in the tertiary industry. These processing methods are very innovative based on the compiling method of current price input-output table. In addition, the dissertation compiles the comparable price input-output table, which according to the input-output table in2007, the input-output extended table in2010and taking.2002as the price base year, includes the comparable input-output table of28departments in2007and2010(in appendix), is the most fresh fruit in the field of compiling current comparable price input-output table in domestic.更多还原