【作者】 李新；

【导师】 邹宏元；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 金融学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 2001年的年底,我国正式加入世界贸易组织,也就是从那时开始,中国的经常项目差额开始出现大幅的顺差,并在2008年达到历史峰值。随着全球化进程的深入,以及近年来我国与其他国家对外经贸关系的不断发展,当今中国已成为世界排名第一的外贸大国。这一现象引起了国际上各方面的热议。对中国来说,经常项目差额的持续大幅盈余一方面促进了我国经济的发展,增加了国内的就业岗位,但是另一方面,也给我国的宏观经济运行和管理带来了一系列的问题。我国政府相关部门一直高度重视这一情况,并出台过多种措施来调节。党的十八大报告指出,我们需要更加积极地调节自身经济结构,发展安全高效的外向型经济,完善外汇管理和创新机制,主动地促使我国对外经济趋于平衡,而非被动地调整。有鉴于此,我们开展对中国经常项目差额变动的研究,除了经济学本身的意义之外,更多的是能够契合现实意义,为政策制定提供新的思路。本文对我国经常项目差额变动进行研究,不仅描述和总结了中国国际收支平衡表中的经常项目数据的变化情况,更重要的是研究引起这些数据变化的影响因素及影响程度,只有这样才能够较为准确和全面地解释自1982年以来我国经常项目差额的变动。从现有的文献来看,把我国经常项目差额变动作为核心内容的研究较少,大多文献是从我国经常项目不平衡的角度出发,探讨其失衡的背景、原因,并辅以计量手段进行实证研究,测度其不平衡的程度。从根本上说,本文的研究内容也属于对经常项目差额的探讨,但并不将“失衡”这一准则施予整篇文章。本文从我国经常项目差额的具体数字出发,探讨这其中的影响因素、影响程度、变化规律及可持续性。此外,在这一研究领域,目前两种主要的研究方法分别是较为传统的宏观经济分析法和上世纪90年代后才开始流行的经常项目的跨期方法。这两种方法各有所长,前者更加清晰和简明地将一国的内部经济和外部经济联系起来,而后者有着严格的数学推导过程,更具微观基础。为了保证研究的科学性,我们分别对每一种方法进行理论分析,并在此基础上借助于从这两个理论中得出的推论,对我国经常项目差额的影响因素进行实证研究。其结果证实这两种方法并不冲突,跨期方法的有效性恰好弥补了传统的宏观经济分析法的微观基础,也有助于说明宏观经济分析法推出的结论是可信的。从我国经常项目差额变动的实际情况看,与1982～2001年相比,2002-2011年我国经常项目差额大幅增加,这就产生了三个层面的思考：首先,是哪些因素引起了经常项目差额的变化呢?于是通过借助经济学理论模型,我们分析并分解了经常项目差额的影响因素。其次我们会关注这些影响因素对经常项目差额的影响方向和大小。然而,我国自2001年底加入WTO以后,以上影响因素的影响程度可能发生了显著的变化,这就需要我们结合结构性变化这一特点进行实证研究。最后,正是由于这一明显的结构变化,我们需要进一步探讨我国经常项目的差额是否可持续的问题,特别是针对2002年以后经常项目大幅盈余的情形作了说明。因而,本文遵循如下的写作思路：首先,通过对外管局公布的中国国际收支统计平衡表的分析,我们对我国经常项目差额的历史数据进行细致的描述和总结。只有清楚地认识到经常账户变动的具体过程,我们才能在计量分析中捕捉和把握这种结构变化的特征,从而对变动作出较为准确解释。其次,我们还需要用经济学的理论和模型对我国经常项目差额变动展开进一步的研究。虽然经常项目差额的变动数据是由国际收支平衡表核算出来的,然而这变动背后蕴含的经济意义更加值得我们探讨。经济学的基本理论和模型将是我们分析的出发点,通过运用这些理论和模型,我们不仅厘清了经常项目差额的影响因素,也从理论上对这些影响因素的影响程度和方向作出预测。最后,我们还要采用现代时间序列计量技术对我国经常项目差额的影响因素以及可维持性问题进行实证分析。在经济理论的基础上我们通过构建相关的数理模型和实证模型,运用我国宏观经济变量的相关数据对我国经常项目差额的影响因素、结构变化和可持续性做了计量分析,并对相关结果进行比较和解释,从而得出有现实意义的结论。本文的章节安排和上述写作思路也是完全吻合的。其中第一章为导论,主要说明了问题提出的背景、选题意义,介绍了本文的主要研究内容和结构安排,同时也总结了本文的主要创新之处和不足所在。在第二章,我们首先对经常项目差额的形成机制方面的文献进行了评述,随后重点回顾了目前国内外关于经常项目差额的影响因素和可持续性方面的相关的文献。通过回顾和评述前人在这一领域中的研究成果,来明确本文的研究重点、具体内容,并借鉴某些好的方法。第三章中我们对中国经常项目差额的历史数据变化情况进行了描述。梳理数据的同时,我们结合当时的政策背景和经济环境,总结其变动规律。第四章首先介绍了经常项目的跨期方法和双缺口模型,之后通过对跨期方法的推导得出了长期中影响一国经常项目差额的理论模型,又通过对双缺口模型的两度分拆得到了经常项目差额影响因素。并根据经济学理论和主流的实证结果,给出诸多影响因素的理论预期,留待后文的实证检验。第五章则是建立在第四章理论模型和影响因素分解之上的实证部分。在这一章里,我们从分析经常项目差额的时序数据开始,综合运用多种计量手段对前一章的两个主要模型进行实证考察。我们首先从长期视角对诸影响因素的因果关系、互相作用程度、对外部冲击的反应等特性进行了考察,之后引入了结构性变化的因素,并在此基础上切换成短期动态视角对诸影响因素对我国经常项目差额的影响方向及影响程度的变化进行进一步的研究。最后给出实证结果并分析其经济意义,重点解释了各影响因素与理论预期不相符的地方以及其在不同区制下的变化。第六章则在第四、第五章的基础上,通过逻辑上的扩展,进一步探讨了我国经常账户差额的可持续性问题。除了综合运用相关的判定方法,我们还充分考虑了在发生结构性变化的前提下,我国经常项目差额的可持续问题。第七章是结论和政策建议部分,一方面针对之前的理论分析和实证结果进行总结归纳,另一方面评述了经常项目差额的影响因素、结构变化和可持续性这三者之间的关系,最后提出了相关的政策建议。本文的主要结论有：第一,通过对经常项目差额的跨期方法的理论推演,得到了关于一国经常项目差额变动的长期影响因素,实证结果表明经常项目差额的预测值与实际值比较吻合。这就证实了关于消费者的消费行为变动最终会导致该国经常项目差额变动这一理论的有效性,也为后续的双缺口模型的分析奠定了微观基础。第二,格兰杰因果检验的结果说明了我国的人均GDP、政府的储蓄投资缺口、对私人部门投放的信贷余额、我国的实际有效汇率水平以及人口的抚养比率与我国的经常项目差额之间均存在单向因果关系,诸影响因素对于我国经常项目差额确实存在着影响。VAR系统下的实证分析揭示了各因素对外部冲击的反应程度和方差贡献大小,而FMOLS的回归结果则证实了在长期中,各因素对我国经常项目差额的影响符合前文的理论预期。第三,门限效应检验的结果表明,我国经常项目差额的数据存在着结构性变化。因而我们采用非线性建模的计量方法,去捕捉我国经常项目差额在结构变化前和变化后的特点。以经常项目差额占GDP之比的门限值则确立了结构转换的状态,其中低盈余状态所对应的时间段主要集中于2002年以前的年份,而高盈余状态所对应的时间段主要集中于2002年以后,即我国加入WTO以后的年份。第四,多元门限回归的结果则揭示了五个解释变量在不同区制的情形下对被解释变量的影响。人均GDP、政府部门的储蓄-投资差额在不同区制下的符号变化分别可以由发展阶段假说、居民对财政支出的反映模式不同加以解释。对私人部门的信贷投放占GDP的比率、实际有效汇率、总抚养比与我国经常项目差额间的相关关系则完全符合理论预期,然而其系数的变化幅度较大,分别反映了自我国2001年加入WTO以后,我国金融市场开放程度、人民币购买力和居民用汇便利程度、年龄介于14～65岁之间人群的储蓄行为发生的变化。第五,基于我国经常项目贷方余额和借方余额的回归方程的协整检验的结果表明,从总体上看我国的经常项目差额满足Hakkio和Rush(1991)、 Husted(2002)提出的协整标准,说明我国的经常项目差额是可持续的。但与2002年以前相比,我国从2002年至今的经常项目盈余发生了明显的结构性变化,实证结果显示,其可持续性也由2002年以前的可持续变为2002年之后的弱可持续。对经常项目失衡的研究已经有诸多成果,而本文将研究重点转为对经常项目差额变动的探讨,其创新之处在于：第一,把经常项目的跨期方法和双缺口理论衔接起来。在分析我国经常项目差额变动的情况时,既采用了已经成为当今主流分析范式的经常项目跨期模型,又采用传统的宏观经济学分析中的双缺口模型。前者的理论分析和实证结果指出了一国的经常项目差额与该国代表性主体的消费行为之间存在着特定关系,而后者则为我们寻求一些重要的宏观经济变量,是如何通过对个体的储蓄投资行为进行影响,从而进一步地去影响我国经常项目差额变动的传导渠道提供了一个理论分析和实证分析的框架。第二,对双缺口模型进行再度拆分,探索宏观经济因素通过影响私人部门的储蓄进而影响我国经常项目差额的传导渠道。在以双缺口模型为理论基础进行研究时,根据从内部不平衡到外部不平衡这一分析思路,不仅将双缺口模型按部门进行拆分,更进一步地细分出影响我国储蓄特别是私人部门储蓄的宏观经济因素,再去探究这些因素与经常项目差额变动之间的关系。第三,引入结构性变化的因素。由于结构性变化是我国经常项目差额变动过程中的重要特征,如果忽略这一影响,得出的结论将不能真实地反映我国经常项目差额的变动情况。故在研究影响因素对我国经常项目差额的影响程度时,需要采用未知断点检测、设置虚拟变量以及构建多元门限回归模型等多种计量方法捕捉这种结构变化的特点,以期更加准确地解释我国经常项目差额的变动情况。第四,加入了可持续性的系数判定标准。在考虑到存在结构性变化的背景下,我们不但运用含内生突变的单位根及协整检验方法以反映这一点,并在此基础上加入了系数判定标准,对于2002年以前和以后我国经常项目盈余是否具备可持续性的问题做了探讨,并通过采用系数显著性检验的方法,指出我国经常项目差额从可持续到弱可持续的变化。由于本身水平所限,本文亦有以下不足：第一,在运用经常项目跨期方法对我国经常项目差额的决定进行分析时,没有讨论更为复杂的动态情况下的相关结论,包括涉及参数校准的实证：第二,本文在实证分析中所用到的相关数据样本的容量有限,这就可能造成相应的计量结果在稳健性或可靠度方面带有瑕疵。对此,我们一方面加强了经济学相关理论的分析,以此弥补小样本计量检验结果的不足；另一方面,我们在进行每一步计量检验时,力求计量过程完备,以增加计量结果的可靠程度。更多还原

【Abstract】 China joined WTO by the end of2001,from when Chinese current account balance came out with huge surplus and reached maximum value in2008. As the globalization process becomes deeper and the closer relationship between China and other countries, nowadays China has become the top one country with largest foreign economy in the world. Such development rises international discussion. In one hand, the sustaining huge surplus of current account facilitated the economy development, while in another hand, issues are brought about to our macro economy. Chinese government and related authorities had paid much attention to this issue and carried out measures to adjust. Also our scholars did much research in this field to put forward valuable suggestions. Therefore, we had to adjust the structure of economy more positively with developing safe and efficient foreign economy, including improving foreign exchange management and innovation to lead our economy recovering to its balance. Under such circumstance we researched the change of China’s current account balance. We aimed to provide suggestions not only in line with economic theory, but also in accordance with the reality and could help to make actual policyMost research in this field based on the imbalance of current account with discussing on its background and reasons, then analyzing the degree of such imbalance through empirical method. Although this paper discussed the current account balance, we had no attention to use imbalance to cover the whole paper. We followed the logic that by analyzing the data of our current account, studied the determinants、the law of change and sustainability. This paper chooses particular perspective to analyze the relationship、extent of inter activating and transmission channel between current account balance and other macroeconomic variables. In order to achieve this goal, we should study the subject from following aspects: First of all, we summarize the characteristic of China’s current account by analyzing data from Balance of China’s International Payment which is published by SAFE, by such works we are expected to string all factors such as times policy together into one line. During our study process, we have to set basis by using classical international finance theory in this field, and combine the practice of China’s current account balance. Through deep research into the change of related data, we are trying to seek for the reasons or laws casuing such change. Only had realized the particular changing process taking place in China’s current account balance, could we capture such characteristic in the following empirical research and provide reasonable explanation to such issue. Therefore, the purpose of this part lies in knowing the changing process of China’s current account balance, exploring the characteristic of such change and capturing the detail in the change.Second, we will further study the change of China’s current account balance by applying related economic theories and models. Although the data of China’s current account balance have come out by accounting method, the reasons causing such change still attracts our attention and worthy for further discussing. These economic theories and models are excellent start point to analyze the change. Through applying these method, not only could we figure out the effecting factors of China’s current account balance, but also could predict the extent and direction of such effecting.At last, we applied modern econometrics method to study the effecting factors of China’s current account balance and long-run sustainability problem empirically. On the basis of economic theory, we construct mathematic model and empirical model. Combing the data from China’s macroeconomic variables, we analyze the effecting factors s structural change and sustainability of China’s current account balance, while we also compare the results and provide fully explanation to draw meaningful conclusions.Main economic theory that applied in this paper is The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account and Two-Gap Model. The main econometric methods adopting here includes VAR model, impacting respond method, Granger causing method, FMOLS method, break-point test and Multivate Threshold Regression Model.We arrange our chapters according to above thinking. Chapter one is the introduction part which states the background and reason why we choose the change of China’s.current account balance as our subject. Still we introduce the main research contents and structure arrangement of this paper, and propose the innovation part and those details where we could have omitted or have faults in it.In chapter two we mainly comment those researches in this field by categories. By studying the existing research done by our predecessors, we could re-study their economic method and thoughts and decide how to apply the advantage in our paper, still we could review their study and realize the shortcoming clearly. It is expected that through such work, a basic theoretical and empirical framework could be built for our paper.In chapter three we summarize the characteristic of China’s current account by analyzing data from Balance of China’s International Payment which is published by SAFE, by such works we are expected to string all factors such as time、policy together into one line. In the meantime, we sum up the changing reasons and patterns by combining the policy background and economic environment during that period.Then a theoretical model has built in chapter four according to latest research findings and economic theory. Moreover, we decompose the effecting factors through resolving the traditional model. Next step we predict the extent and direction of such effecting on the basis of economic theory and mainstream empirical results. At last a final model which could be empirical is made.Chapter5is an empirical chapter where we have done what we described in above chapters. In the beginning we analyze the time-series data of China’s current account balance, and then apply various econometric method to study the models that are set before. We also explain the empirical results with economic meaning to fully illustrate the extent and direction of the effects to China’s current account balance.In this chapter we extend the topic logically to discuss the issue concerning the sustainability of China’s current account balance. Except for drawing the popular identification standard from latest research, we are fully aware of that there is a structure change taken place in the middle of our time-series data, therefore the corresponding measurement is made to fix such problem.Chapter7is the final chapter, we compare and conclude the previous results from both theory and empirical study, also we comment the relationship among the effecting factors, structure change and sustainability. Finally related suggestions concerning our macroeconomic policy are proposed.The innovation part of this paper including several aspects:First of all, we have linked the Intertemporal Approach and Two-Gap Model. Second, we decompose Two-Gap model twice to get the determinants. Third, we apply the empirical method to capture the structural break. The results show that all factors have different effects in two regimes. Also these two parts are innovation part of the whole paper. At last, we use different ways to assess the sustainability of China’s current account balance. Still, we have faults existing in this paper, such as lack of deeper discussion on Intertemporal Approach with more sophisticated method. Also the sample volume is not large enough could be another part to be improved in the future.更多还原