【作者】 邝启宇；

【导师】 卓志；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 保险学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 现代社会治理方式正在发生巨大改变,发展理念、组织协调和组织方式方面已经发生深刻而广泛的变化,政府、企业、公众、非政府组织等,不断参与到治理和决策的过程当中,这不可避免地会影响到自然灾害的处理方式。大多数自然巨灾风险包含了复杂性、不确定性和多义性的复合。自然巨灾在风险社会中具有和政治、社会、文化复杂的联系。自然巨灾的社会与自然双重属性共同构建了众多的交叉研究谱系,巨灾风险的研究也从风险管理迈入风险治理的全新阶段和范式。近年来,社交媒体极大的改变了人类的生活和灾害治理。理论上,社交媒体的五大关键特性：集体,连通,完整性,清晰度和协作,使其适合于风险治理。实践中,社交媒体也在灾害救助中显示出巨大的力量。社交媒体已经成为综合的风险治理工具之一,它不仅是信息工具,也是风险建构工具、风险沟通工具、情感联系工具、社会参与工具。本文全面考察社交媒体对提高巨灾的可治理性的优势和局限。由于目前国内学界还缺乏相关系统性的理论分析框架,也没有完整的理论研究思路和基本的研究内容体系可资借鉴,本文基于巨灾风险治理的框架,围绕社交媒体在巨灾风险治理中的作用从以下几个方面展开具体研究。第一章、绪论部分。基于巨灾风险的严峻形势与传统巨灾风险管理遇到的挑战,说明研究的选题背景,指出社交媒体在灾害救助中显示出巨大的力量,社交媒体与巨灾风险治理的进一步融合将无可避免。并总括性地给出本文的研究思路、研究方法、创新以及不足之处。第二章、理论回顾及综述。社交媒体在风险治理中的作用很大程度上是基于现代风险社会中风险的建构性。风险本身又是多主体性和跨学科性,因此引入风险治理框架,更适于分析。该部分全面深入地对风险、巨灾风险、风险治理、巨灾风险治理以及社交媒体的基本概念和基本特征进行科学合理的分析和阐述。风险治理又和国家的政治经济环境、风险类型密切相关,各个利益相关者的角度和作用各异,因此该部分在IRGC的风险治理框架基础上加以扩充确立了本文的巨灾风险治理框架。第三章、社交媒体在巨灾风险治理中的作用机制。本章从风险社会中的自然巨灾的特征出发,指出风险治理框架应用于自然巨灾的可行性和原则,考察了利用社交媒体进行自然巨灾风险治理的参与主体,然后从总体作用机制、核心作用机制、工具性使用机制、参与性使用机制、情感性使用机制考察了社交媒体在巨灾风险治理中的作用机制。最后论述了社交媒体带来的治理挑战。第四章、社交媒体在巨灾风险治理中的作用实践。鉴于巨灾风险是关乎人类生存与可持续发展的重大社会问题之一,不少饱受巨灾伤害的国家和地区早已开始了对巨灾风险管理的探索和实践。近年来,发达国家、欠发达国家以及我国都在巨灾中大量运用了社交媒体。但由于制度、法律、技术、社会资本等方面的差异,表现出了不同的层次和特色。本章对美国、中国以及海地地震、斯里兰卡海啸、日本地震运用社交媒体的实践进行了回顾和分析。接下来基于风险治理框架,按照主要的参与主体分别考察其在巨灾风险治理中对社交媒体的运用。第五章、政府利用社交媒体参与巨灾风险治理的分析。指出巨灾风险及其产生的危机与紧急灾难的处理,已经成为政府面临的重大挑战,政府治理理念正在转变。本章将社交媒体作为一种政策工具,分析政府利用社交媒体进行巨灾风险治理的作用框架和作用原理。并以一个相对简化的经济学均衡模型,说明政府往往在巨灾的事前预防和风险沟通方面会投入不足,而社交媒体作为一种高效率、低成本的政策工具和手段,可以使政府在巨灾的预防、风险沟通、风险文化塑造方面更有效率。第六章、以保险公司为重点,对市场主体利用社交媒体参与风险治理进行了分析。社交媒体以其较强的交互性、迅速性、便捷性和开放性等特点,所展现的巨大的影响力和上升趋势,对于巨灾风险管理和巨灾保险市场建设都是重大的机遇和挑战。为了研究社交媒体对巨灾保险市场均衡的影响,本章构建了一个包括政府、保险公司、消费者三方的巨灾保险市场的演化博弈模型,重点分析了社交媒体通过作用于消费者的风险感知和产品价值感知,进而对巨灾保险市场的演化均衡的影响途径,并对该模型的演化均衡进行了详细的比较静态分析。结果显示合理使用社交媒体,可以通过影响消费者的风险感知、保险公司的产品成本、理赔效率等方面,更低成本、更有效率地促进巨灾保险市场的均衡。最后基于以上模型提出了相应的建议。第七章、对公众利用社交媒体参与巨灾风险治理进行了分析。重点基于公众的参与性使用进行了考察,指出传统的层级式救灾将公众排除在决策外,而公众通过社交媒体的参与有利于形成集体智慧,并分别考察了公众利用社交媒体参与巨灾风险治理的几种形式。第八章、社交媒体在巨灾风险沟通中的作用。风险沟通可以引导公众对风险接受程度、风险感知、进而影响社会行动、经济活动、伦理认同、人际互动的认知,因此风险沟通已经变成风险治理中关键性的建构程序。本章分析了巨灾中风险沟通的意义,利用社交媒体进行风险沟通的框架、机制。对于相应的挑战,重点分析了社交媒体使用过程中谣言产生和抑制的机制。最后我们对有效利用社交媒体进行巨灾风险沟通提出了相关的建议。第九章、社交媒体在巨灾风险治理中的作用评价。对于风险治理中的影响和作用,在IRGC的风险治理框架中并没有相关的评估环节,相关文献也鲜有涉及,本章进行初步的尝试,试图建立一个衡量社交媒体在巨灾风险治理中作用的评价框架和指标体系。第十章、主要结论和展望。本章是对全文的总结和补充。论述本文研究中所得到的主要结论、核心观点,以及研究过程中存在的不足和未来研究展望。通过上述分析与探索,本文取得了如下进展和创新：1、系统性地分析了社交媒体在巨灾风险治理中的作用,填补了我国巨灾风险治理的相关理论空白目前国内外有关于社交媒体在巨灾风险管理中的作用并没有形成系统化理论化的学科体系和研究框架。本文通过总结回顾国内外的主要相关研究,基于风险治理的框架,全面分析和阐述了社交媒体在巨灾风险治理的作用机制与运用建议。2、全面探索了在巨灾风险治理各主体、各环节中更有效地利用社交媒体的新思路本文基于理论模型分析和案例实践分析,就各参与主体和灾害各阶段如何利用社交媒体改进巨灾风险治理,提出了相关的思路与建议。3、创新性地通过演化博弈理论和风险感知理论分析了社交媒体对于巨灾保险市场均衡的改善作用构建了一个包括政府、保险公司、消费者三方的巨灾保险市场的演化博弈模型,重点分析了社交媒体通过作用于消费者的风险感知和产品价值感知,进而对巨灾保险市场的演化均衡的影响途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 There are radical changes in social development, coordination and organization recent years, this will inevitably affect the handling of natural disasters. Government, business, public, NGO are all to participate in governance and decision-making process.Most natural catastrophe risks are compound of the complexity, uncertainty and ambiguity compound. In the risk society, natural catastrophe has complex linkages of political, social and cultural aspect. Natural catastrophe research is entering a new phase of catastrophe risk governance from risk management.In recent years, social media greatly changed the way people live and disaster management. In theory, five key features of social media:Collective, connectivity, completeness, clarity, and collaboration, making it suitable for risk management. In practice, social media in disaster relief also shows great influence. Social media is not only the information tools, but also the risk of constructing tools, risk communication tool, emotional connection tools, social participation tools.This paper conducts a comprehensive study of social media to improve catastrophe governance, as the following aspects.Chapter I, Introduction section. Based on the challenges of the grim situation of catastrophe risks encountered with traditional catastrophe risk management indicating the research background, pointed out that social media in disaster relief has showed great strength, further integration of social media and catastrophe risk governance is inevitable.Chapter II, Literature Review. Risk itself is a multi-and interdisciplinary subjects in risk society, and therefore the introduction of risk governance framework is more suitable for analysis. This chapter thourouly check the basic concepts and basic features of risk, catastrophy risk, risk governance, catastrophe risk governance and social media. We then expand the IRGC risk governance framework to use in this paper. Chapter III. Mechanism of social media affects catastrophe risk governance. This chapter begins with characteristics of natural catastrophe, points out the feasibility and the principles of applying risk governance framework to natural catastrophy, we then examine the subject of social media participation in natural catastrophe risk governance, and study the general mechanism of action, the core mechanism of action, the instrumental mechanism, the participatory mechanisms, the affective mechanisms using social media in catastrophe risk governance mechanism. Finally, we discusses the governance challenges of social media brings.Chapter Ⅳ. The practices of social media in catastrophe risk governance. We review the practice and case of using social media in catastrophy in the United States, China and the earthquake in Haiti, Sri Lanka tsunami, earthquake in Japan.Next, based on risk governance framework, were investigated in accordance with the participation of the main subject of the role of social media use in catastrophe risk governance.Chapter V. The analysis of government involved in the catastrophe risk governance by using of social media. We treat social media as a policy tool, analyze the framework and the role of social media affects government. Point out social media is a high-efficiency, low-cost policy tools and instruments that can make catastrophy prevention, risk communication, risk culture shaping more efficient.Chapter VI. Focusing on the use of social media for market players,especially insurer, involved in risk governance. The interactivity, rapid, convenience and openness characteristics, build opportunities and challenges in catastrophe insurance market, we constructs a model of evolutionary game including government, insurance companies, consumer in catastrophe insurance markets, focusing on analysis of social media by acting on the consumer’s perception of risk and perceived value of the product and thus the evolution of the catastrophe insurance market equilibrium, and the evolution of the equilibrium model of a detailed comparative static analysis. The results showed that the rational use of social media can influence consumers’ perception of risk, the cost of the insurance company’s products, claims and other aspects of efficiency, lower cost, more efficient to promote balanced catastrophe insurance market. Chapter VII. This Chapter analyzes the public using social media in catastrophe risk governance. Focus on the public participation, pointing out the public participation through social media is conducive to the formation of collective wisdom, and investigate several forms the public using social media in.Chapter VIII. Alalyze the role of social media in the risk communication of catastrophe. Risk communication has become a key component in risk construction process. This chapter analyzes the significance of risk communication, the framework, mechanisms and challenges of risk communication using social media, focusing on analysis of the mechanism of social media rumor generation and suppression.Chapter Ⅸ. Evaluate social media in catastrophe risk governance. Measure social media influence and role in the catastrophe governance. Since the IRGC risk governance framework has no related issue, this chapter attempts to establish a preliminary evaluation framework and indicators.Chapter X, the main conclusions and outlook. This chapter is a summary of the full text and supplements. Discusses the main conclusions obtained in this study, the core point of view, as well as the process of research gaps and future research prospects.Through the above analysis and exploration, this article has made the following progress and innovation:1、Fill the theoretical gaps in our catastrophe risk management by systematic analysis of the role of social media in catastrophe risk governance.At home and abroad, there is no systematic theoretical framework of the discipline and studies on the role of social media in catastrophe risk governance. This paper reviews major studies of social media in disaster management, expand IRGC risk governance framework, conduct a comprehensive analysis of the effect and mechanism of social media’s role in catastrophe risk governance.2、Present new ideas for more effective use of social media by comprehensive exploration of the catastrophe risk governance.Based on the theoretical analysis and case practice, puts forward some ideas and suggestions on the various stages of the participating subjects and how to use social media to improve disaster catastrophe risk governance.3、Analyze the role of social media to improve catastrophe insurance market in an innovative way by leveraging evolutionary game theory and risk perception theory.Constructed an evolutionary game model, including government, insurance companies, consumer in catastrophe insurance market, analyzes the role of social media by perception and perceived value of the product in the consumer’s risk, and thus study the evolution of catastrophe insurance market equilibrium.更多还原