【作者】 程莉；

【导师】 程民选；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 经济史， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 历经30多年的经济转轨过程,市场化取向的制度变革及其所导致的资源配置和激励改进,使得中国取得了突出的经济增长绩效。然而持续的经济增长背后,收入差距尤其是城乡收入差距也越来越大。城乡收入差距受到多种因素的影响,其中产业结构是影响城乡收入差距的一个重要因素。产业结构变迁通过拉动农业剩余劳动力转移而影响城乡收入差距,在改革开放初期,我国产业结构变迁带来了城乡收入差距的一度缩小,然而,在其后时期,随着产业结构不断变迁,城乡收入差距也日趋扩大。这一过程中,农业结构调整乏力、工业发展方式粗放、服务业发展滞后,产业空间布局不合理等问题,导致农村剩余劳动力不能有效地被非农产业吸纳就业,从而扩大了城乡收入差距。当前,我国正处于工业化深化发展、城镇化加速推进阶段,处理好城乡收入差距问题、建立社会和谐发展的新型城乡关系已经显得十分迫切,这直接反映一个国家、地区对统筹城乡发展问题的认识水平和管理能力,是一个国家区域可持续发展水平的重要标志之一。本文基于新经济史学派的研究方法,系统分析产业结构变迁对城乡收入差距影响的理论与内在机制,以中国产业结构变迁及城乡收入差距的变化为主线,从历史的视角直观考察了我国1978-2011年间产业结构变迁的状况以及城乡收入差距演变的状况,并实证检验了我国产业结构变迁与城乡收入差距的相关性,以及产业结构合理化、高级化、产业结构空间格局变迁对城乡收入差距的影响。具体概括为以下几点：首先,讨论了产业结构变迁影响城乡收入差距的理论与内在机制。产业结构变迁影响城乡收入差距的理论,主要包括产业结构变迁理论、二元经济结构理论、区域经济发展理论、收入分配差距理论,以及制度变迁理论。在内在机制上,产业结构变迁主要通过部门二元经济结构、区域二元经济结构、农业结构调整、工业结构变动、服务业结构优化、城镇化与劳动力流动,以及制度变迁、技术进步来影响城乡收入差距。产业结构变迁对城乡收入差距影响机制的分析为本文的研究提供了相关的理论基础和来源,有利于为进一步从历史的、实证的角度,深入研究我国产业结构变迁对城乡收入差距的影响奠定理论基础。其次,理论分析的结论显然需要接受实践的检验。论文在理论分析的基础上,着眼于中国1978-2011年的经济成长史,从历史的视角直观考察了我国这一时期产业结构变迁的状况以及城乡收入差距演变的状况。采用历史分析法对1978-2011年间不同时期,即经济体制改革探索阶段(1978-1983)经济体制改革全面推进阶段(1984-1991)、建立社会主义市场经济体制阶段(1992-2001)、完善社会主义市场经济体制阶段(2002-2011)的产业结构变迁对城乡收入差距的影响进行分析,以明确不同阶段城乡收入差距变化的结构性原因。再次,论文对产业结构变迁对城乡收入差距的影响进行了相关性分析与实证检验。研究产业结构变迁影响城乡收入差距的问题,首先必须明确产业结构变迁与城乡收入差距是否存在相关性。通过构建产业结构变迁和城乡收入差距的相关指标,利用格兰杰因果检验以及VAR模型等方法,分析产业结构变迁对城乡收入差距影响的相关性,可以使我们从结构变迁的视角理解和认识产业结构变迁对城乡收入差距的影响,为实证分析奠定前提和基础。然后,通过建立计量经济模型进一步深入分析产业结构变迁对城乡收入差距的影响。主要包括两个方面的内容：一是包括产业结构合理化、高级化,以及产业结构变迁过程中伴随的经济发展、城镇化、市场化水平、外商直接投资水平、人力资本含量、政府干预度对城乡收入差距的影响；二是产业结构空间格局变迁对城乡收入差距的影响。最后,总结传统发展模式下产业结构变迁对城乡收入差距影响的经验教训,立足于现实,分析与理解转变经济发展方式下的产业结构变迁对于缩小城乡收入差距的重要性,提出以农业产业化、新型工业化、新型城镇化,以及区域经济协调发展为动力的产业结构变迁路径,以期能够为实现城乡收入差距的缩小化,从经济史的视角提供一些思考成果。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the process of economic transformation over the past30years, it is institutional change from the market orientation and the allocation of resources and incentives that China achieves outstanding economic growth performance. However, the income gap, especially the income gap between urban and rural areas is getting widening. Income gap between urban and rural areas is affected by many factors, among them; the industrial structure is an important factor. The transformation of industrial structure affects income gap between urban and rural areas by pulling the transfer of agricultural surplus labor, and at the beginning of the reform and opening up, China’s industrial structure change has brought once to narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas, however, in the later period, the industrial structure changes, and the income gap between urban and rural areas is also increasing. However, in the current industrial structure, there are still many problems, agricultural structure adjustment is lacking in strength, industrial development pattern is extensive, the service industry is underdeveloped, and the industry space layout is unreasonable, which lead to non-agricultural industry can’t absorb rural surplus labor effectively, thereby expanding the income gap between urban and rural areas. If these problems can be effectively solved, narrowing of the income gap between urban and rural areas can be realized in the near future.Therefore, in the stage of accelerating development of industrialization and urbanization in our country, it is urgent to deal with problem of income gap between urban and rural areas, and establish a new harmonious relationship between the urban and rural, which directly reflects the level of understanding and management ability of balancing urban and rural development for a country or an area, and it is one of the important symbol of a nation or region sustainable development level.This paper applies the China changes of industrial structure and the income gap between urban and rural as the main line, systematically analyses the mechanism of the effect of industrial structure on the income gap between urban and rural areas, in addition, tests them to combine with history in our country, and on this basis, further, takes empirical analysis based on the measurement method of the new economic history school to test the correlation between industrial structure and the income gap between urban and rural areas, gets research on the impact of the rationalization degree of industrial structure, the level of advanced industrial structure, and the industry space layout change on the income gap between urban and rural areas. Specifically, summarized as follows:First of all, this paper discusses the views that the theory and inherent mechanism of industry structure changes on the income gap between urban and rural areas. Theoretically speaking, industrial structure change has impact on the income gap between urban and rural areas mainly mainly includes industrial structure change theory, dual economic structure theory, regional economic development theory, theory of income distribution gap, and the theory system and institutional change. The mechanism of t industrial structure change has impact on the income gap between urban and rural areas mainly through department of dual economic structure, regional dual economic structure, agricultural structure adjustment, fluctuation of industrial structure, service industry structure optimization, urbanization and labor mobility, and institutional change, technological progress. Analysis of the impact mechanism provides a theoretical basis and sources related to this research, which is beneficial for the further research from the historical and empirical perspective, laying the theoretical foundation for the impact of industry structure changes on the income gap between urban and rural areas.Secondly, the conclusion of theoretical analysis clearly need practical test. Therefore, from a historical perspective, based on the Chinese economic growth history from1978to2011, get an intuitively inspect on the condition of industrial structure change and the condition of the income gap between urban and rural areas during this period. Emphatically from the angle of history, dividing into different periods to get research on the influence of industrial structure on the income gap between urban and rural areas by using historical analysis method from1978to2011, namely economic system reform stage (1978-1983), economic system reform stage (1984-1991), setting up the system of socialist market economy (1992-2001), improve the social system of socialist market economy stage (2002-2011), so as to be clear about the structural causes of which changes of the income gap between urban and rural areas in different stages.Again, get the analysis of the correlation and empirical research on the influence of industrial structure changes on the income gap between urban and rural areas. Primarily, it is necessary to know whether a correlation exists between the industry structure changes and the income gap between urban and rural areas before the research. In this chapter, in order to test the correlation between them, relevant indicators of industry structure changes and the income gap between urban and rural areas will be established, and some methods such as Grainger causality test and VAR model will also be applied, so that we can understand and recognize the impact of industrial structure changes on the income gap between urban and rural areas from the perspective of structural change, and lay the premise and the foundation for the later empirical analysis.Then, based on the analysis of the correlation for the influence of industrial structure changes on the income gap between urban and rural areas, construct econometric model to further analyze the influence of industrial structure changes on the income gap between urban and rural areas. Mainly includes two aspects:on the one hand, the research on the impacts of some factors on the income gap between urban and rural areas, these factors including the rationalization degree of industrial structure, the level of advanced industrial structure,and the economic development level, urbanization ratio, marketization level, foreign direct investment level, human capital content, the level of the content of government intervention,which in the process of industrial structure changes; on the other hand, take quantitative analysis for the impact of the industry space layout change on the income gap between urban and rural areas.Finally, summarizing the experience and lessons of the influence of industrial structure changes on the income gap between urban and rural areas in the traditional mode of development, based on reality, analysis and understanding of importance of the industrial structure change on narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas in transformation of the mode of economic development, put forward industrial structure change paths which are motivated by agricultural industrialization, new industrialization, new urbanization of development, and the region economy coordinated development, only system needs to be top-level designed, can the income gap between urban and rural areas narrow in the true sense of the future.更多还原