【作者】 郭志广；

【导师】 易敏利；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 西方经济学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 中国劳动力流动制度变迁与粮食购销体制改革构成了中国农村劳动力不断进行转移的制度因素。在这些制度变迁的激励下,中国农村劳动力开始了大规模的人口流动。农民从传统的粮食种植业转移到城镇(农村)的非农产业部门进行就业。农村劳动力转移(流动)是农民基于自身资源禀赋,对家庭劳动力资源在时间与空间上进行重新配置,是农民在市场条件约束下的理性选择。劳动力转移一方面有利于缓解我国粮食种植中存在的“内卷化”倾向,缓解我国人多地少的矛盾。但另一方面,由于劳动力转移呈现出的选择性特征,这种转移实质上是一种农村资源的单向流动,使得农村劳动力的结构呈现出老龄化、低素质化的特征。农村劳动力转移形成了农村劳动力结构失衡,对未来国家粮食安全形成了潜在威胁。农村劳动力流动与国家粮食安全到底是一致的还是冲突的?如何通过制度设计实现劳动力转移与国家粮食安全的有机统一成为本文研究的根本目的。劳动力外流实质上是一种农业生产资源的单向流动,在没有相应的农业生产要素进行替代的情况下,显然会造成粮食产量的下降,不利于国家整体粮食安全。但过多的劳动力拥挤在有限的土地上,也无法提高农业生产率,也不利于农民的增产、增收,当然也无法保障国家粮食安全。通过城镇化把过多的农业人口从农业中转移出去,减少种粮农民的数量成为发展现代农业,提高农业劳动生产率,实现国家粮食安全的根本途径。农业劳动力转移与国家粮食安全的矛盾也只有通过粮食生产要素间的要素替代来实现。对地区层面,应考虑不同地区禀赋差异,在国家整体粮食供求基本平衡的前提下,应充分发挥地区比较优势,从生产与贸易两个维度来维护地区粮食安全。当然,对于任何地区而言,粮食自给率越高,则该地区的粮食安全程度越高,但由于地区间的禀赋差异,如果一味地强调每一地区都实现粮食的自给,则会造成效率损失与资源浪费。而粮食安全的微观层面,则主要强调粮食消费个体的粮食获得能力,只有提高粮食消费个体的收入水平才能保障个体的粮食安全。对于微观层面的粮食安全,其着重点是城乡低收入群体和弱势群体,这一部分人群粮食安全保障其根本出发点在于提高其收入水平,为其保障自身粮食安全创造物质条件。粮食安全涉及宏观层面的“买得到”与微观层面的“买的起”,本文从粮食安全的这两个维度出发,考察劳动力转移与粮食安全的一致与冲突,寻找劳动力转移与粮食安全从“冲突”到“一致”的路径以及相应的制度安排。上世纪开始的以家庭承包制为主体的农村经济体制改革解放了农村生产力、调动了农民生产积极性,解决了我国粮食长期供给不足的问题。进入了90年代,我国粮食连年丰收,出现了农民“卖粮难”问题,同时由于其它产业快速发展,农民收入缓慢,城乡收入差距不断拉大。这些现象表明中国已经进入了农业发展调整阶段。该阶段的核心问题已经由重视粮食生产转移到增加农民收入上。但对于中国特殊的国情而言,农业的基础地位还很不牢固,粮食安全这根弦还丝毫不能放松。因此,中国农业发展新阶段实质上进入了农民增收与粮食问题并重的阶段。在该阶段下,劳动力转移与粮食安全具有内在的一致性。一方面,劳动力转移缓解了我国人多地少的矛盾,为开展农业适度规模化经营创造了条件。另一方面,农民外出务工、进入到其它产业就业提高了农民的收入水平,务工收入成为农民增收的主要渠道。同时,农村劳动力转移到非农产业就业也为中国经济的发展提供的充足的劳动力资源,支撑了中国经济的发展。由于中国农村劳动力的转移是一种单向的“选择性”转移,这种农业生产资源的单向流动,对农村劳动力结构产生了重大影响。目前,有超过60%的农村青壮年劳动力已经转移出去,从事农业生产的劳动力的年龄普遍在50岁以上,形成了“五鬼”搞农业的尴尬局面。农业劳动力结构失衡成为我国粮食安全的潜在威胁。如何改变这种农业生产资源的单向流动的局面,无外乎是通过提高农民种粮的比较收益。但通过提高粮食价格这种方面,政府作为粮食需求主体处于一个两难的境地。政府在与其它粮食需求主体的博弈过程中,最终形成都是采取低价策略的纳什均衡,而且在WTO背景下,单纯提高粮食价格也使得粮食需求主体增强从国际市场获取粮食的动力,也就是说通过提高粮食价格的方式来增加农民种粮比较收益的可操作空间非常有限。另外一种方式就是通过增加种粮补贴的方式来提高农民种粮比较收益。但补贴的发放取决于中央政策支持与地方政府财政状况。在当前情况下,产粮大省一般是工业弱省和财政穷省,产粮大县的财政基本上属于“吃饭财政”,财政支付能力极大限制了对种粮的补贴力度,而且这种补贴通过流通领域进入到了主销区,主产区粮食补贴的积极性不高。在博弈分析的基础上,本文运用DEA分析法对中国粮食生产率进行了实证分析,结果表明,尽管中国粮食产量不断上升,但中国粮食生产的全要素生产率并没有出现增长,甚至还出现了下降的情况。农村劳动力转移与国家粮食安全的一致与冲突并存,如何使两者从冲突走向一致,其根本要点在于通过生产要素的对流和区际的贸易合作。本文从主产区与主销区的要素禀赋差异出发,探讨两种地区在粮食安全上的不同目标取向,并对我国各地区的粮食生产比较优势进行实证分析。通过对粮食市场改革初期与当前时期各地区粮食生产比较优势实证分析,中国粮食生产具有越来越明显的专业化趋向。粮食主产区的综合生产能力不断增强,农业生产的比较优势越来越明显。农业产业结构调整与粮食生产空间布局不断优化使得粮食主产区在国家粮食安全中的地位越来越明显。要使主产区承担起维护国家粮食安全基石的重任,必须从微观层面提高农民种粮的比较收益,使种粮收入至少不低于从事其它行业的平均收入水平。这就要求主产区加大农村劳动力转移力度,通过减少粮食种植业从业人数,提高种粮劳动生产率,实现粮食生产的适度规模化经营。对于主销区而言,应根据自身比较优势大力发展非农产业,并以此来推动主销区农业劳动力转移,并带动主产区劳动力转移,为主产区粮食生产创造条件与市场,以区域间的粮食贸易来实现自身的粮食安全。农村劳动力流动与粮食安全从冲突到一致需要一定的制度安排,本文从要素对流的角度对农村劳动力转移政策调整、粮食产销区利益关系协调、中央粮食政策支持、土地流转等方面提出政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The institutional change of Chinese labor mobility and the evolution of food market constitute the external factors of millions of rural forces outflow occur in China. Under the stimulus of these institutional changes, the rural labor force in China began large-scale population movements. Farmers have a new job after the transfer from the traditional food farming to non-agricultural sectors of the urban (rural).The transfer is a new reconfiguration of their own labor resources in time and space, based on their resource endowments. In addition, this transfer is a rational choice under the market constrains. The contradiction of "more people and fewer lands" On the one hand, Labor transfer will alleviate the "involution" tendency in China’s grain planting and ease the contradiction of "more people and fewer lands". On the other hand, this transfer is a selectively transfer, is essentially a rural resources extraction. The structure of the rural labor force becomes aging and poor quality. This imbalance in the structure of rural labor force has formed a potential treat to national food security in the future. Rural labor mobility is consistent with national food security in the end or conflict. How to design a system to achieve the organic unity of the labor transfer and national food security? This is the fundamental purpose of this study.Labor transfer is essentially a kind of agricultural production resources extraction. If no other agricultural factors substituted the labor, the food production will be decline and the national food security will be worse. But too much labor crowded on limited land, can not increase agricultural productivity, is also not conducive to the increase of farmers’ income, of course, can not ensure national food security. Only through urbanization, will be excessive agricultural population reduced. Only through urbanization, will be modern agriculture developed. Transfer of rural labor is a Fundamental way to achieve national food security. The contradiction between Transfer of agricultural labor and national food security is also through the factor substitution to solve. For different regions, the differences of endowments should be considered. Under the premise of national overall food supply and demand balance, every region should give full play to their comparative advantages, from the production and trade to maintaining regional food security. Of course, for any region, the higher the rate of food self-sufficiency, the higher the level of food security in the region。However, different regions have different endowment. If solely emphasizing each region to achieve food self-sufficiency, will result in efficient loss and waste of resources. At the micro level, food security focuses on the consumer’s ability to obtain. At the macro level, food security emphasis that enough food can be purchased on the market. This article is from these two aspects of food security to study the Consistency and conflict about rural force transfer and national food security, to find a path from conflict to consistence and the corresponding institutional arrangements.The initial economic reform in rural areas liberated rural productivity. It mobilized the enthusiasm of farmers and solved the problem of insufficient long-term food supply in China. In the1990s, China had grain harvests year after year. There were "Mai Liangnan" problem. In the same time, as other industries developed rapidly, urban-rural income gap was widening. These phenomena indicate that China has entered a stage of agricultural development adjustment. This stage the core issue has shifted from food production to increase farmers’ income. However, for China, the foundation of agriculture is still fragile, and food security string cannot relax. Therefore, Chinese agricultural development has entered a new stage that food production is as important as farmers’income. At this stage, labor transfer and food security have internal consistency. On the one hand, the transfer of labor is creating the conditions to carry out agricultural moderate scale operation. On the other hand, farmers have entered other industries to employ and improve their income level of farmers. Wage income becomes the main channel for peasants to increase income.Since the transfer of rural labor in China is a one-way "selective" transfer, this transfer had a significant impact on structure of the labor force in rural areas. Currently, there are more than60%of the young labor force in rural areas has been transferred. Generally, the age of labor force engaged in agricultural production has over50, forming an embarrassing situation that "Five Ghosts" engaged in agricultural production. How to change this situation that the unidirectional extraction from agricultural production resources. The one way is improving the Growing grain income of famer. However, by increasing food prices, the Government is in a dilemma. Another way is by increasing the grain subsidy to improve the income of farmers. However, Subsidy depends on the support of the central government and local government revenue situation, In the current case, the major grain-producing province is generally poor province. Major grain-producing counties’finance is "eat finance". Local governments cannot provide more financial subsidies to food production. The article has an empirical analysis to China’s grain productivity using DEA method. The results show that the total factor productivity of China’s grain production did not increase.Consistency and conflict between Transfer of rural labor and food security are co-existing. How to make these two aspects from conflict to consistency? The fundamental point is "elements convection" and inter-regional trade cooperation. This article analyzes the different target orientations of the two regions on the food security, based on differences in factor endowments in main food area and main food sales area. Moreover, in the article, the food production comparative advantages of various areas of China have been analyzed. The empirical analysis shows that China’s grain production has become increasingly evident specialization trend. The comprehensive production capacity of major grain producing areas is growing, and comparative advantage in agricultural production is more and more obvious.Adjustment of agricultural structure and continuous optimization of the layout of food production space make the major grain-producing areas in the national food security are becoming more and more important. In order to make the main producing areas to take on the important task of safeguarding national food security, it is essential that the government improve the comparative income of grain farmers. At least, the grain income is not less than the average income level in other industries. For the main producing areas, this requires speeding up the transfer of labor, reducing the number of employees of the grain-growing industry. For sales areas, according to their comparative advantages, it requires vigorously developing non-agricultural industries. The sales areas achieve their own food security by inter-regional trade in food. To achieve the consistence between rural labor migration and food security, certain institutional arrangements are required. From the point of the elements of convection, this article presents recommendations from the transfer of rural labor policy adjustments, interest coordination of food production and marketing areas, the central the food policy support and land transfer.更多还原