【作者】 雷洪光；

【导师】 邓乐平；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 金融学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 金融危机后,全球经济金融发展格局发生了巨大变化,这对我国经济发展方式带来了挑战,银行业发展所面临的外部环境、约束条件、客户需求等也随之发生了变化。我国商业银行长期以来采取的是存贷款立行的经营模式,即通过存贷款规模的迅速扩张来赢得利差收入。在利率受到管制条件下,商业银行可以通过稳定的存贷利差盈利,这在一定程度上扭曲了资金价格,造成资源错配,无法使利率经济杠杆的角色得到充分发挥。随着金融体制改革的不断深入,利率市场化改革进入了关键阶段,利率市场化将不可避免的收窄银行的存贷利差,这对商业银行的传统盈利模式带来了挑战,并给商业银行带来了一定的经营风险。商业银行只有转变发展方式,在大力发展传统业务领域的同时,实施多样化的中间业务,增加中间业务收入才能规避利率市场化带来的价格竞争引致的经营风险,才能创造商业银行新的利润增长点。在上述指导思想下,本文首先对现有研究进行评述与归纳,并对基本概念给予交代,接着对商业银行中间业务转型进行理论上分析其转型的动因、实质、转型必要性等,并从实证上论证利率市场化引致的价格竞争对商业银行经营风险与绩效将产生显著影响,价格竞争导致存贷款净利差收窄,增加了商业银行的经营风险,降低了商业银行的收益；而中间业务收入占比增加能够降低商业银行经营风险,增加商业银行经营绩效。因此,增加中间业务收入占比是降低商业银行经营风险、培育服务性金融机构的重要途径；而我国中间业务发展还存在一定的不足,中间业务转型是增加中间业务收入占比的有效途径,最后着重从创新与风险两个角度对中间业务发展策略进行了思考。根据以上思路,论文采用规范经济学与实证经济学相结合的研究方法、归纳与演绎相结合的研究方法、数理统计与数据挖掘相结合的研究方法,按照提出假设、设立模型、收集数据、分析数据、得出结论的步骤,从商业银行创新、存贷利率变化、利率的波动、银行的竞争、银行业的脆弱性等方面分析利率市场化对商业银行经营的影响；接着从多元化理论、协同效应理论、现代资产组合理论、金融创新理论等方面提供了商业银行中间业务发展的理论依据；从规避监管效应假说、商业银行风险分担假说、道德风险假说等方面分析商业银行中间业务发展的动因；从金融市场发展与商业银行功能弱化、中间业务发展与银行功能转变两个方面论述中间业务发展的实质；从金融脱媒、资本约束、存贷利差减少、银行竞争等方面论述中间业务发展的必要性。在实证分析中,论文首先对中间业务与商业银行经营安全进行实证分析,论文考察了我国利率市场化改革以来,商业银行存贷款净利差与非利息收入占比的变动趋势,并考察了存贷款净利差与非利息收入占比对商业银行风险的影响；通过实证发现我国的商业银行的市场化程度还较低,业务还集中于传统银行信贷业务,抗风险能力不高；银行业发展不均衡,上市银行具有较高的抵御价格竞争风险的能力,而非上市银行在利率市场化的背景下,面对价格竞争则表现出较大的脆弱性。因此,我国的利率市场化的推行不宜过快,否则将使得上市银行等大型商业银行存活下来,而以城市商业银行、农信社为主的区域性商业银行则很可能在竞争中亏损,甚至出现被其他银行兼并、破产的风险；应该给予区域性商业银行一定的转型时间,发展中间业务,建立现代的金融服务体系。接着,对中间业务发展与商业银行经营绩效的实证研究。论文主要考察了我国利率市场化进程中,中间业务发展对商业银行经营绩效的影响效果。通过实证,论文得出结论：随着利率市场化的逐步推进,我国的银行业竞争将逐日激烈,存贷利差的减小会导致银行经营绩效的降低,因此寻找新的绩效增长点是十分必要和迫切的。最后,论文在概念梳理、理论分析和实证研究的基础上,从创新与风险两个角度对商业银行中间业务发展进行了深入的思考。商业银行要树立正确的中间业务经营理念,在正确的经营理念和市场化定位下,针对不同的客户群开发差异化的中间业务产品,采用模块化的产品开发策略；商业银行在模块式产品开发后,针对不同的市场可以采用成本加成的产品定价策略、竞争导向的产品定价策略、关系导向的产品定价策略；最后,商业银行应制定有效地风险管理机制,有效的风险防控是商业银行中间业务发展的重要保障,商业银行应高度重视中间业务的风险管理,强化信息披露,坚持业务发展与风险防控并重,确保经营的安全性与盈利性的统一。在论文的研究中,可能有以下几个方面的创新点：(一)实证论证我国中间业务发展是倒逼型的金融改革在利率市场化的背景下,商业银行的传统信贷业务由于价格竞争使得其面临较大的竞争风险；本文提出我国商业银行的经营模式转型是倒逼型的转型,传统业务领域的激烈竞争使得其不得不进行业务转型,大力发展中间业务,提高服务质量,规避竞争风险。(二)从资本约束的角度分析中间业务发展金融危机后,G20集团颁布实施的巴塞尔协议Ⅲ成为新的国际银行业监管标杆,中国银监会也颁布了《商业银行资本管理办法(试行)》,我国商业银行面临更为严格的资本约束。在资本约束不断强化、资本补充渠道有限的条件下,商业银行继续扩大资本高消耗型业务的发展模式已难以为继,只有发展中间业务等资本低消耗型业务,才能有效应对监管约束带来的挑战。(三)引入价格竞争与非利息收入占比的交乘项本文在研究中,为验证中间业务发展与利率市场化之间的关系,引入了价格竞争与非利息收入占比的交乘项,通过实证发现,非利息收入占比的提高一定程度上能过抑制价格竞争给商业银行带来的经营风险,也能够弥补利差收入下滑带来的经营利润下降问题。(四)分别以上市银行与非上市银行进行实证研究我国商业银行的微观发展因素的实证研究中,现有研究多以上市银行为样本进行,而本文的实证研究中既包含了上市银行也包含了非上市银行,并按照是否是上市银行将样本分为两组,分别进行考察,并在对比的基础上进行分析得出结论。由于作者学术理论还有待提高,个人的视野还不够开阔,作者认为本文还存在如下方面的不足：本文由于大量的非上市的城市商业银行的数据披露更是难以收集,仅仅收集了部分的城市商业银行数据,并未达到全覆盖,可能会对论文的实证结果有所影响,但是,根据大样本原理,本文所选择的样本数涵盖了1/3-1/2的商业银行数,即使样本没有包含所有的商业银行,但其结果仍然具有可信性。其次,在我国中间业务发展的策略设计部分,由于本人的实务经验还不是很多,覆盖面和策略的高度和深度还有待加强。商业银行经营模式的转型是我长期坚持的研究方向,在今后的理论学习和工作实务中,我将不断积累知识,不断改进,希望能够为我国的商业银行中间业务发展提供借鉴。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of openness of the financial market, economic reform has become a necessary condition to accelerate economic development in our country. After30years of effort, the reform has been effective, the socialist market economy has been established at a preliminary level. However, the speed of financial system reform is slow, restricting the further deepening of economic reform, and the interest rate liberalization plays a core role in the financial system reform.Low interest rates under control distort commodity prices to some extent, resulting in misallocation of resources, and interest rates do not function well as economic leverage. Non-market interest rates limit the financial market reform. Therefore, in order to promote economic reform and improve the efficiency of reform, accelerating the process of interest rate liberalization is the key. Coupled with the slowdown in China’s economic growth, economic restructuring, the impact of financial disintermediation, information technology development and other aspects of development, it’s inevitable for China’s commercial banks to transform business models."Twelfth Five-Year Plan" clearly states that "transformation of economic development model" is an important strategic goal of this period, China’s economic structure and connotation certainly will change dramatically, with the advance of China’s financial market reform, interest rate liberalization has entered a substantive stage, the capital market is market-oriented. Lending rates have been largely liberated. Deposit rates are also floating with a certain band. Price competitions among commercial banks further drag down the commercial banks’ traditional credit business profits, and bring operation risks to commercial banks. In this context, it is urgent to make transformation to serve the real economy. Only if commercial banks change in development models, vigorously develop the traditional business areas, implement a variety of intermediary business and increase revenues of intermediary business can commercial banks avoid operation risks brought by price competitions stem from interest rate liberalization and create new profit growth point.Under these guidelines, this paper summarizes and comments on the existing studies, and defines some basic concepts. Then theoretically analyzes the motivation, substance, and the need for restructuring commercial banks’ intermediary business. This paper also empirically analyzes the significant impact of price competition on commercial banks’operation risk and performance. Price competition leads to contraction of net interest rate margin, increases operational risk of commercial banks, and reduces the profit of commercial banks. Increase of the proportion of intermediary business income can reduce operation risk and increase the performance of commercial banks. Therefore, increasing the proportion of intermediary business revenue is necessary to reduce risks and nurture financial institution of service; in China, the development of intermediary business is not mature, and intermediary business transformation is an effective way to increase the proportion of intermediary business revenue. Finally this paper discusses strategic development of intermediary business from the perspectives of innovation and risk.Based on the above ideas, this paper applies approaches combining normative economics and empirical economics, inductive and deductive methods, mathematical statistics and data mining. This paper is organized as following: setting hypothesis, establishment of model, data collection, data analysis, and conclusion. This paper analyzes impact of interest rate liberalization on the operation of commercial banks from the perspectives of commercial banks’ innovation, deposit and lending interest rate changes, interest rate fluctuations, competition among banks as well as vulnerability of commercial banks. Then this paper discusses diversification theory, synergy theory, modern asset portfolio theory, financial innovation theory to provide a theoretical basis for intermediary business development. This paper also uses regulation avoidance effect hypothesis, commercial bank risk-sharing hypothesis, and moral hazard hypothesis to demonstrate motivations to develop intermediary business. The next section analyzes the substance of intermediary business from the views of financial market development, commercial banks weakening, intermediary business development and changes of bankings’ functions. Moreover, this paper illustrates the need for intermediary business development from perspectives of financial disintermediation, capital constraints, contraction of net interest rate margin and bank competition.In the empirical analysis, the paper first analyzes intermediary business and commercial banking security. This paper examines the dynamic trend of proportions of net interest rate margin and non-interest income and its impact on banks’risks. This paper finds that diversification in commercial banks is still low, the business has focused on traditional banking credit, and risk-resisting ability is low. Banking development is uneven, listed banks have a high ability to resist risks brought by price competition, however, non-listed banks are more vulnerable in the face of price competition induced by interest rates liberalization. Therefore, the implementation of interest rate liberalization should not be too fast, otherwise it will result that only listed banks and other large commercial banks can survive, while regional commercial banks like city commercial banks, rural credit cooperatives are likely to lose in the competition, there are risks of merge and bankruptcy. Regional commercial banks should be given a certain time to develop intermediary business and establish modern financial service system.Subsequently, this paper conducts empirical research on intermediary business development and commercial bank performance. This paper examines how intermediary business development affects operation performance in the process of interest rates liberalization. Through empirical studies this paper concludes that with the development of interest rate liberalization, banking competition will be fierce, reduced net interest rate margin will result in decreased operating performance of banks, so it is very necessary and urgent to find a new growth point.Finally, based on concept analysis, theoretical analysis and empirical research, this paper conducts in-depth thinking on intermediary business development from the points of view of innovation and risk. Commercial banks are required to establish a correct philosophy about intermediary business. Under right philosophy and market positioning, banks can develop differentiated intermediary business products for different customer groups and use modular product development strategy. After the product development, commercial banks can use either cost-plus pricing strategy, competition-oriented pricing strategy, or relationship-oriented pricing strategy according to different marketplace. Finally, commercial banks should develop effective risk management mechanism. Effective risk prevention and control are important guarantees for the development of intermediary business, commercial banks should attach great importance to risk management of intermediary business, strengthen information disclosure, and insist on both business development and risk control to ensure the safety and profitability of management.Innovative points of this paper lie in:(1) Development of the intermediary business is forced financial reform.In the background of the interest rate liberalization, the traditional credit business of commercial banks faces greater competition risk due to price competition. This paper presents China’s commercial banks operating model transformation is Forced transformation. Fierce competition in the traditional credit business makes commercial banks develop intermediary business, improve service quality, and avoid competition risk.(2) From the point of view of capital constraints to analyze intermediary business developmentAffected by Basel III, the capital adequacy ratio of commercial banks must meet a higher value in order to meet regulatory requirements. This further reduces the credit funds available, consequently, profits of commercial banks are bound to decline. In this case, commercial banks have to develop intermediary business and add new profit point in order to eliminate the adverse effects of capital adequacy ratio requirement bring.(3) Conduct empirical research on listed banks and non-listed banks respectively.Existing empirical studies of micro-development factors of China’s commercial banks are largely based on listed banks. However, this paper contains both listed banks and non-listed banks, and divides them into two subsamples according to whether the bank is listed. Researches are conducted on both subsamples. Conclusions are made on the basis of comparison.(4) Use net interest margin as a proxy for competition among commercial banks In the current study, the proxies for competition among commercial banks include banking concentration and the Lerner index. This paper argues that it is not appropriate to use degree of competition in the banking sector as proxy variable under the background of interest rate liberalization. This paper selects price competition indicator in the banking sector as a proxy for competition; however, due to the limited disclosures of the city commercial banks, it is difficult to calculate the Lerner index, in this case, we choose net interest margin as a proxy for competition in empirical research.Because of limited academic achievements and personal vision, this paper is limited in the following aspects:due to the difficulties in collecting data of non-listed city commercial banks, only a few banks’data is collected, full coverage is not achieved. This may somewhat affects empirical results. However, according to the principle of large samples, the number of samples used in this paper covers1/3-1/2of the banking sector. Even though not all the commercial banks are included, the result still has credibility.Secondly, in the part of strategic design of intermediary business, because of limited practical experience of the author, coverage and depth of the strategy are to be strengthened. Transformation of the business model of commercial banks is my long-standing research direction. In the process of future study and work, I will continue to accumulate knowledge and make continuous improvement in the hope of providing a reference for the development of intermediary business of China’s commercial banks.更多还原