【作者】 严青；

【导师】 何泽荣；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 金融学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 目前国内外关于小额信贷可持续发展的研究不少,但多是从供给的角度考虑问题,即通过提高利率等办法以覆盖成本的角度,而对如何降低交易成本以促进需求,从而达到可持续发展方面鲜有研究。农户小额信贷值得讨论的问题很多,本论文则重点探讨当前中国农户小额信贷的三个问题,一是农户小额信贷的贷款利率问题,包括农户可承受的最高贷款利率和小额信贷机构可承受的最低贷款利率两个方面,二是为防范小额信贷风险和降低交易成本加强农村征信体系建设问题,三是中国农户小额信贷可持续发展的有效模式选择问题。通过这些研究,最终目的是一方面求得中国农户的脱贫致富,另一方面则是小额信贷机构的健康与可持续发展。中国作为世界上最大的发展中国家,60%左右的人口生活在农村地区,农业、农村和农民问题始终是关系国民经济发展和现代化建设的重大问题。党的“十七大”、“十八大”报告都明确指出：“解决好农业农村农民问题是全党工作重中之重。”提高农民收入则是彻底解决“三农”问题的核心。改革开放以来,中国的农户小额信贷从开始的各地试点到现在的全面推广,在解决农户贷款难问题,促进农民增收,支持农村经济发展,建设社会主义新农村中发挥了积极的作用。实践证明,小额信贷可以为“三农”发展提供有效的金融支持,提高农民收入,特别是帮助低收入农民改善生活状况,有利于和谐小康社会的建设。但我们也注意到,中国农户小额信贷的发展状况仍然难以满足农村经济发展的要求,农户“贷款难”问题并没有根本改变,对于所存在的问题还需要我们去分析、研究和解决。从需求角度看,农户对金融的需求是多种多样的,从满足需求的难易程度角度分析,贷款需求是首要的需求。就供给而言,尽管在中国已经初步形成了一种小额信贷供给机构多元化和供给渠道多样化局面,但是,供给总量有限,信贷满足率较低,小额信贷服务仍然极不充分。小额信贷的供给与需求存在的问题影响到小额信贷可持续发展。因此对这些问题应该加以分析、研究和解决。具体地说：(1)在中国有大量的、潜在的有信贷需求的农户,但有效信贷需求不足,即大量存在的或潜在的信贷需求不能成为有效需求。而影响农户信贷需求意愿的外生限制条件主要有贷款利率、贷款期限、贷款类型等。其中贷款利率作为价格信号对农户小额信贷活动的规模、形式与作用的影响,在过去的研究与舆论中,往往被低估了。此外,农户信贷需求对贷款类型亦高度敏感,现行以抵押、担保为主的贷款模式并不适合农户信贷。(2)小额信贷交易成本高,成为很多专家学者提出以高利率来维持小额信贷可持续观点的理由,但经过本文的实证研究认为,由于在现有的农村收入水平条件下盈亏平衡利率远远超出了农户的可承受能力,从而影响了小额信贷的发展,因此从根本上降低交易成本才是农村小额信贷持续发展的根本出路。(3)农村征信体系建设的滞后制约了农户小额信贷的发展,建立标准化的农户征信管理系统可有效解决信息不对称问题,从而降低农户小额信贷交易成本(主要是经营成本和风险成本),使小额信贷在放贷机构和农户均可承受的利率之下实现可持续发展,达到小额信贷机构和农户“双赢”的根本目的。(4)从中国小额信贷发展模式说,中国农户小额信贷的发展不能盲目照搬某个国家现成的成功经验,而是必须走自己的道路,设计适合中国市场经济发展现行阶段要求的小额信贷有效模式,即中国农户小额信贷总体发展模式的现实选择是准公益性制度主义,也就是在公益性制度主义的基础上,加上必要的政策扶持,是一种界于福利主义和商业性制度主义之间的、准市场化的小额信贷模式。(5)从中国小额信贷运行机制说,针对中国农户小额信贷目前存在的机构网点偏少、资金来源不足、贷款面窄、经营成本和风险高、保障和扶持不足、监管不到位等问题,应构建一种“多元化组织体系+多渠道资金来源+农户征信体系+利率适中的小额信贷+信贷保险+政策扶持+审慎监管”的中国农户小额信贷运行机制。全文共八章,结构安排和主要内容如下：第一章是导论。主要阐述本文的研究背景、意义、研究思路和逻辑、主要研究方法、可能的创新点和不足。第二章是理论综述和研究回顾。主要明确农户小额信贷的涵义,简介农户小额信贷相关理论依据,同时综述国内外关于小额信贷的研究现状。第三章是国外小额信贷实践及启示。主要回顾国外小额信贷发展史、发展模式及发展趋势,总结经验,吸取教训,给中国小额信贷更好发展以借鉴。国外小额信贷实践经验体现在以下几点：小额信贷应扩大到尽量多的中低收入群体,且一定要注重风险控制；小额信贷利率的确定既要考虑机构的财务可持续性,亦要考虑客户的可承受性；小额信贷的发展要循序渐进,且对小额信贷的监管必不可少；政府的金融政策和国家的金融改革对小额信贷的发展十分重要,必要的扶持不可少。第四章是中国农户小额信贷发展历程、现状及问题。主要回顾改革开放以来中国小额信贷发展历程,分析现状特点、存在问题及原因,评估其成效。得出以下基本观点：中国的农户小额信贷从开始引进到现在的全面试行推广,有了长足的发展,一定程度上解决了农户发展的金融需求；农户小额信贷在资金来源、风险防范、利率、政策扶持和监管等方面仍存在诸多问题,严重制约了其发展,金融机构不能贷、不敢贷、不愿贷,农户无法贷现象仍很突出。第五章是中国农户信贷需求实证分析。本章立足农户视角,通过对广东省茂名市农户借贷情况的调查,对农户的经济行为和信贷需求特征进行分析,并使用Probit模型和Tobit模型对农户信贷需求与来自放贷机构的外生限制条件的关系进行分析,分别运用问卷调查法和收支平衡法测算了农户信贷利率承受能力。实证结果表明：中国农户信贷需求旺盛,但有效需求不足,主要受贷款利率过高、抵押担保条件和期限过短的影响。第六章是中国农户小额信贷供给实证分析。本章立足小额信贷机构视角,利用对广东省茂名市农村信用社的调查统计数据,首先介绍农户小额信贷供给现状及与农户信贷需求的匹配情况,并分析农户小额信贷的财务收入和交易成本,进而运用盈亏平衡利率模型测算小额信贷机构可承受最低贷款利率,并通过对盈亏平衡利率与实际执行利率、农户心理承受利率进行比较,分析影响农户小额信贷利率的各种因素。实证结果表明：农村信用社农户小额信贷供给与农户信贷需求存在不匹配；农户小额信贷在目前的现状下要达到可持续,需要的盈亏平衡利率极高,大大超出了农户的承受能力；造成利率偏高的核心原因是信息不对称引起的信贷营运成本率和信贷风险成本率偏高问题。第七章是农村征信体系建设与农户小额信贷的可持续发展。本章通过回顾国内外农村征信体系建设研究和实践,分析存在问题,提出建设标准化的农户征信管理系统的观点和设计框架,并以广东省茂名市为例实证分析农户征信管理系统的作用。得出以下结论：农村征信体系建设滞后制约了农户小额信贷的发展；建立标准化的农户征信管理系统可有效解决信息不对称问题,从而降低农户小额信贷交易成本,使小额信贷在放贷机构和农户双方均可承受的利率之下实现可持续发展,达到小额信贷机构和农户“双赢”的根本目的。第八章是中国农户小额信贷有效模式选择。主要提出构建有中国特色的农户小额信贷模式的设想。主要观点包括：(1)在总体思路上提出建立一种能同时实现农户脱贫致富和小额信贷机构生存发展的可持续“双赢”目标的有效模式的观点。(2)在基本原则上提出“广覆盖、普受惠”、“有偿性、可持续”、“低成本、共发展”、“重激励、有保障”、“强监管、保稳健”等观点。(3)在发展模式上提出选择一种界于福利主义和商业性制度主义之间的、准市场化和准公益性的制度主义小额信贷模式。(4)在运行模式上提出“多元化组织体系+多渠道资金来源+农户征信体系+利率适中的小额信贷+信贷保险+政策扶持+审慎监管”。(5)在运行机制上分述了农户小额信贷市场准入及监管、贷款运作、市场保障等各个环节的具体操作模式。本文可能的创新点有：(1)运用计量经济学方法,利用本论文作者直接或参与调查的广东省茂名市农户和农村信用社的数据,较为系统地分析了农村小额信贷需求方可承受的最高利率和供给方可接受的最低贷款利率问题,得出现行中国农户小额信贷实际执行利率高于农户预期,而低于小额信贷机构预期,因而应该探寻农户小额信贷供需双方可接受的合理的均衡利率区间的结论,从而既不同意目前比较流行的农户可承受贷款高利率的观点,也不同意小额信贷机构能够在贷款低利率下实现可持续的观点。(2)将本论文作者参与创建的广东省茂名市标准化农户征信管理系统引入农户小额信贷研究中,以求更有效解决农户小额信贷信息不对称问题,从而降低小额信贷的营运成本和风险成本,实现我国农户小额信贷的可持续发展。该系统与现有信用信息系统的区别与优点在于：它是以“户”(农户)、而不是以“人”(个人)为单位,以统一的农户征信数据元为标准,采用批量导入与手工录入相结合的方法,实现对农户信用的自动评价。(3)根据中国“三农”和农村小额信贷机构现状,本论文首次提出了构建一种界于福利主义和商业性制度主义之间的、准公益性和准市场化相结合的中国农户小额信贷模式的观点,并细述了其运作机制,即多元化组织体系+多渠道资金来源+农户征信体系+利率适中的小额信贷+信贷保险+政策扶持+审慎监管。文章的不足之处可能有：要想全面地系统地把中国农村小额信贷问题搞清楚,需要大量的调研和广泛的资料收集,但由于受到客观现实条件的限制,无法获取我国全面系统的资料与相关数据,因而本文仅以广东省茂名市为例实证分析了传统农业地区农户小额信贷问题,样本有一定局限性,因而也就难以通过完全的量化分析来对农户小额信贷利率进行研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present, there are many researches on sustainable development of microfinance, but mostly consider the issue from the perspective of supply, namely from the perspective of raising interest rates and other measures to cover the cost, while studies on how to reduce transaction costs in order to boost demand, so as to be continued development is rare. Rural Microfinance worth discussing many issues, this essay will focus on three issues of rural household microfinance in China, the first one is the lending rate, including the highest lending rate household affordable and the lowest loaning rate MFIs acceptable; the second is the prevention of the risk microfinance, reduction of the transaction costs, and reinforcement of rural credit system problem; the third is the choice of the effective model for sustainable development of China’s rural Microfinance. According to the studies, we can get to the ultimate goal mat rural household are out of poverty on one hand,and MFIs can get healthy and sustainable development on the other hand.China, the world’s largest developing country, about60percent of the population lives in rural areas, agriculture, rural areas and peasants has always been a major issue for national economic development and modernization. The report of the17th and18th CPC National Congress clears that’ solving agriculture, rural areas and peasants is related to the overall situation of building a moderately prosperous society, which must always be a top priority in the party’s work’. Raising peasants’ income is the core of completely resolving the problem of agriculture, rural areas and peasants.Since the reform and opening up, from the pilot implementation in various places to comprehensive promotion, China’s rural household microfinance has played a positive role in increasing peasants’ income, in supporting rural economic development, and in building a new socialist countryside. Practice has proved that microfinance can provide effective financial support for the development of ’agriculture, rural areas and peasants’development, increasing peasants’ income, and helping the construction of a conducive and harmonious society.However, we also noted that the development of China’s rural household microfinance is still hard to meet the requirements of economic development in rural areas, peasants’loans difficult’issue has not fundamentally changed, for the problems we also need to analyze, research and resolve. From the demand perspective, peasants microfinance needs are diverse, both credit demand and the needs of savings, insurance, and investment. In all the needs of the financial services, to meet the needs from the perspective of ease of analysis, loan demand is the primary demand. On the supply is concerned, although China has initially formed a diversified microfinance institutions supply diversification and supply channels situation, however, dues to the limited total supply the credit satisfaction rate is too low, and the microfinance services are still very inadequate. The problems of the demand and supply of microfinance affects the sustainable development of microfinance. Therefore, these issues should be analyzed, studied and resolved.This paper argues that (1) In China there are a lot of potential credit needs of the peasants there, but lacking of effective demand for credit, which means a lot of credit demand or potential demand can not be effective. The exogenous constrain factors affecting the Willingness of peasants are mainly lending rate, loan term and the loan type. As the price signals, in the past, the influence of the lending rates on the scale, form and effectiveness of the peasants’household microfinance often had been underestimated in the pasting researches and public opinions. In addition, the demand for loans is highly sensitive to the lending type, our existing lending type which mainly relies on mortgage and loan guarantees is not suitable for household credit.(2) The high transaction cost of microfinance becomes a reason for many experts and scholars to raise the point that maintain the sustainable of the peasants’ household microfinance by high interest rate. However, under the current conditions of rural income breakeven level of interest far beyond the peasants’affordability, which affects the development of microfinance. Therefore reducing transaction costs is the fundamental way to the sustainable development of rural microfinance.(3)The lag construction of the rural credit system restricts the development of microfinance peasants, the establishment of a standardized peasants’ household credit management system can effectively solve the problem of information asymmetry, thereby reducing peasants’ microfinance transaction costs (mainly operating costs and risks cost), so that the microfinance can develop sustainable under the interest rate affordable for lending institution and peasants, and to achieve the fundamental purpose of ’double surplus’ of microfinance institutions and peasants.(4) The development of China’s microfinance must go its own way but not blindly copy the success of a country ready, and design the microfinance model to fit the current stage of development of China’s market economy requires. Choice of Chinese rural microfinance overall development model is a quasi-public good institutionalism, which is a quasi-market-oriented microfinance model between the welfare state and commercial institutionalism,based on the doctrine of public welfare system, with the necessary policy support.(5) for the problem of Chinese peasants microfinance like lack of existing outlets, inadequate funding, narrow face of loans, high operating costs and risks, lack of protection and support, and lack of supervision, it should build a ’organizational system+multi-channel diversified funding sources+peasant household credit system+moderate rates of microfinance+credit insurance+policy support+prudential supervision’ Chinese peasants microfinance operation mode.There are eight chapters in the fully essay, and structural arrangements and main contents are as follows:Chapter I:Introduction. This chapter mainly focus on the research background, significance, research ideas and logic, the main research method, the possible innovation and inadequacy.Chapter Ⅱ:Theoretical summary and research review. Peasants mainly clear meaning of peasants household microfinance, introduce peasants’ related theoretical basis about peasants’ household microfinance, and review the status of domestic and foreign research on microfinance at the same time.Chapter III:Practice of foreign microfinance and enlightenment. This chapter recalls the history of major foreign microfinance, development patterns and trends and gives lessons to China’s better development of microfinance. Microfinance abroad experience is reflected in the following:microfinance should be extended to as many low-income groups, and be sure to pay attention to risk control; the determination of the micro credit interest rates should not only consider the financial sustainability of institutions, but also the customer’s affordability; development of microfinance should be gradual, and the supervision of microfinance is essential; monetary policy and financial reform is very important to the country’s government microfinance development and necessary support is essential.Chapter IV:Development process, current situation and problems of Chinese peasant microfinance. This chapter mainly reviews the development process, analyzes the present characteristics, problems and reasons and assesses its effectiveness. The analysis draw the following basic points:China’s rural microfinance has made great progress from introduction to now a comprehensive trial promotion, and solves the financial needs for development of peasants to some extent; however, there are still many problems in risk prevention, interest rates, regulatory and other policy support which restrict its development. The phenomenon that financial institution unwilling to loan, while peasants can not credit is still outstanding.Chapter V:Empirical analysis on Chinese peasant credit needs. This chapter based on the perspective of peasants, through the investigation of credit condition fo the peasants from the Maoming City, Guangdong Province, and analyze the economic behavior and household credit demand characteristics, uses the Probit model and Tobit model to analyze the relationship between credit demand of the peasants and the exogenous constraints from lending institutions, and uses questionnaires and balance method to estimates the capacity of peasants to credit interest rates separately. The empirical results shows:Chinese peasant has high credit demand, but mainly due to high interest rates, collateral conditions and short term effects, the effective demand is inadequate.Chapter VI:Empirical analysis of China rural micro credit supply, based on the perspective of microfinance institutions, This chapter takes use of the statistics of Maoming City, Guangdong Province to first of all, introduce the matching result between the present condition of the demand and supply of peasants’microfinance, to analyze the financial income and transactions costs of the peasants’microfinance, and thus use the breakeven rate model to estimates the minimum lending rate MFIs can withstand, and through compares among the breakeven interest rate, the actual implementation interest rate and peasants-afforded interest rate to analyze the various factors that affect peasants microfinance interest rates. The empirical results show that:there is a mismatch between the supply of rural credit cooperatives of peasants and peasants microfinance credit demand; in order to realize sustainable, high interest rates needed to break even in the current situation, which far beyond the capacity of peasants; the core reason for the high interest rates caused by the credit cost ratio of operating costs and the high rate of credit risk caused by asymmetric information.Chapter VII:Rural credit system and peasants household micro credit. This chapter reviews the domestic and foreign rural credit system research and practice, analyzes the problems, propose ideas and design framework for the construction of a standardized household credit management system and empirically analyze the role of peasants household credit management system. According the analysis,we come to the following conclusions:The lag construction of the rural credit system restricts the development of microfinance peasants, the establishment of a standardized peasants’household credit management system can effectively solve the problem of information asymmetry, thereby reducing peasants’microfinance transaction costs, so that the microfinance can develop sustainable under the interest rate affordable for lending institution and peasants, and to achieve the fundamental purpose of ’double surplus’ of microfinance institutions and peasants.Chapter VIII:Selection of the effective mode of China Rural Microfinance. To put forward the idea of build the peasants’ household microfinance with Chinese characteristics. The main points include:(1) to put forward a point of view generally that construct a effective mode can simultaneously achieve the sustainable "win-win" goal with poverty alleviation and sustainable development of the microfinance institutions.(2)based on the basic principles, to raise a point of view that’ wide coverage, general benefit’,’payable, sustainable’,’low-cost, common development’,’heavy incentives, guaranteed’,’strong supervisory, keep robust’.(3) based on the development mode, to choose a a quasi-market and quasi-public welfare institutionalism microfinance mode which between the welfare state and commercial institutionalism.(4)to raise the point of view that ’organizational system+multi-channel diversified funding sources+peasant household credit system+moderate rates of microfinance+credit insurance+policy support+prudential supervision’in the run mode.(5) Based on the operational mechanism, to describe the specific operating mode of the market access and monitoring, lending operations and market protection and others of the peasants’household microfinance market.Possible innovations of this article are:fist of all, the use of econometric methods, and the data form the investigation directly or that from the Rural Credit Cooperatives of Maoming Guangdong Province, to take a more systematic analysis of the highest interest rate the demand side affordable and the lowest lending rate the supply side acceptable, which comes to a conclusion that the actual implementation of the rural household microfinance interest rates is higher than peasants’ expected while lower than microfinance institutions’ expected, so that we should explore a reasonably acceptable equilibrium interest rate range which acceptable for both supply and demand sides. This essay disagree the more popular viewpoint that farmers can withstand high interest loans, neither the viewpoint that microfinance institutions can achieve sustainable in the low interest rate loans.Secondly, in order to more effectively address the problem of information asymmetry, thereby reducing operating and risk costs of microfinance, and achieving sustainable development of it. This essay takes the use of the standardize Rural Household Credit Management System in Maoming Guangdong Province, which the authors participated the establishment into the rural household microfinance study. Differ from the existing credit information system, the advantages of the system referred before are it collects the information in unit of "household"(rural household) but not in "person"(individual), it uses unified household credit data element standards, and also takes the use of both bulk import and manual entry mode, moreover, it can carry out a scientific evaluation in peasants’credit automatically.Thirdly, based on the current situation of" rural areas, agriculture, rural areas and peasants " and MFIs in China, this essay, firstly proposes the point of view to construct a quasi-market and quasi-public welfare Chinese rural household microfinance mode which between the welfare state and commercial institutionalism, and the introduce of its operational framework detailed, which is the mode "organizational system+multi-channel diversified funding sources+peasant household credit system+moderate rates of microfinance+credit insurance+policy support+prudential supervision".Inadequacies of the article may be:To comprehensively and systematically figure out the Chinese rural microfinance issues requires a lot of researches and extensive data collection, but due to the restrictions on the conditions, it’s very hard to get a comprehensive system of data and relevant data, thus this essay only take Maoming City, Guangdong Province for example, which has certain limitations. At the same time it is difficult to carry out research on peasants microfinance interest rates by a full quantitative analysis.更多还原