中国能源富集区低碳转型发展研究

【作者】 王保忠；

【导师】 何炼成；

【作者基本信息】 陕西师范大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 “十二五”规划开始,我国进入了加快转变经济发展方式,实现科学发展的战略机遇期和深刻变革期。“十二五”规划指出把经济结构战略性调整作为经济发展方式转变的主攻方向,把科技进步和创新作为经济发展方式转变的重要支撑。然而,当前我国经济发展中不平衡、不协调、不可持续问题仍就突出,资源环境的约束日愈强化,制约发展的各种障碍较多,深化改革和转变经济发展方式任重道远。从我国区域经济发展的实际来看,各地区都面临着经济发展方式转变的艰巨任务,但转型发展的压力仍存在显著的差异。能源资源富集地区作为一类特殊的资源型区域,既面临着继续保障国民经济发展的能源供应安全,又要实现区域自身可持续发展的双重任务。能源富集地区经济发展方式转变、可持续发展、低碳转型刻不容缓,任务尤其艰巨。本文针对能源富集区晋、陕、蒙三省区低碳转型发展问题,做出如下几方面努力：1.本文考虑了我国能源富集区形成的特殊历史过程,深入分析了这类区域转型发展面临的特殊问题,并论证了能源富集区率先低碳转型发展的客观必然性。本文以能源富集区存在的特殊问题为基础,提出能源富集区率先低碳转型发展的观点,拓展了现有低碳研究的立论视域。这一观点无疑会受到很多挑战,但本文尝试从能源富集区低碳转型的必要性、特殊性、可行性及节能减排的“倒逼机制”等方面给出更合理更科学的解释和理论支撑。2.从“资源诅咒”、民生发展、低碳水平三个方面对能源富集区的经济增长质量进行了三重检验。资源诅咒主要考察资源开发与经济增长的关系；民生发展考察资源红利是否有效转化为民生成果,是否惠及广大民众的问题；而低碳水平则主要考察经济增长与碳排放的关系,旨在判断经济增长造成的生态和环境问题,通过这三个方面的检验就可以大致判断能源富集区经济发展的质量高低。这一研究思路简洁新颖,虽与国内一般研究经济发展质量的文献思路并不一致,但这三个方面具有较强的内在逻辑递进关系,针对能源富集区的经济发展质量进行评估和检验有很强的说服力。3.基于能源和环境的超越对数生产函数,对能源富集区三省区工业分行业进行了增长核算分析。研究表明,如果不考虑或不正确处置环境污染变量,会对能源富集区工业发展方式转变形成相当乐观的结论,即工业发展总体上已经实现集约型转变,TFP已经成为驱动工业增长的第一动力。然而这种乐观结论与使用的研究分析方法密切相关,尽管从后续研究表明这种乐观判断存在偏误,但是增长核算仍揭示了其他一些重要结论：(1)能源重化工业行业对能源富集区工业全行业TFP增长作出的贡献占到绝对的主导地位,这说明高投资、高能耗、高排放的能源重化工业行业也取得了实实在在的技术进步,并隐含了能源富集区传统产业进行升级改造已经具有相应的产业基础。(2)高新技术行业对工业全行业增长的贡献仅次于传统的能源重化工业行业,这表明加快现有高新技术产业的发展,主要应在行业规模和效率方面着力提升,将有助于能源富集区产业结构多样化,有助于粗放型的增长方式向集约型的低碳可持续发展方式尽快转变。4.基于方向性距离函数和低碳规制的行为分析模型对能源富集的区域经济低碳转型进行了测度。关于增长核算的分析,现有文献主要针对国别及一国宏观层面进行总量增长研究,而很少有针对特定区域或省区的研究。究其原因,可能是由于区域层面的投入产出数据的获取比较难,特别是资本存量的数据需要采用专门方法进行估算,同时又由于统计口径的不一致,都加大了数据获取的难度和精度。本文尝试构建了能源富集区三省区增长核算所需的工业37个分行业的1990-2011年间的投入产出面板数据库,通过绿色全要素生产率测度表明,能源富集区工业发展方式转变远未实现,低碳转型进程任重而道远。这说明不考察或不正确处置环境污染变量的传统模型会显著高估全要素生产率和技术进步率,会对经济发展方式转变的评估形成有偏的或错误的结论。通过工业分行业面板数据的增长分析,也得到了比总量生产函数更为细致而丰富的研究结果,这为能源富集区的工业低碳转型提供了更为精确的实证依据。能源富集区的工业增长依靠资本和能源驱动的粗放型增长特征依然显著。但是,在20世纪90年代初期到21世纪初叶,这一区域能源排放密集型的重工业的全要素生产率、生产效率和技术进步率的增长出现了优于轻工业的结果,出现了工业发展的“绿色生产力革命”。进入21世纪以来,中国工业再次出现了重化工业化现象,本文认为这对能源富集区有着特殊的意义：一方面,从经济的需求和供给角度看,中国再度重化工业化现象背后是对能源及重化工业产品的强劲需求,这为能源富集区的工业发展带来了巨大的市场,通过满足这些市场需求,能源富集区的经济总量将会快速提升,经济将会保持高速增长。另一方面,从能源富集区经济发展质量和低碳转型的角度看,再度重化工业化现象无疑会加大低碳转型的难度。但是,在国际、国内低碳发展的刚性指标约束下,以及能源富集区区域经济可持续发展的紧迫要求下,会形成一个强有力的“倒逼机制”,迫使能源富集区在经济适度增长的前提下,尽快实现工业发展方式的根本性转变和低碳转型。5.通过对能源富集区工业分行业的增长核算分析,对“资源诅咒”的解释获得了一些新的视角。本文对能源富集区工业37个分行业增长贡献的研究表明,传统的依赖资源的重工业对轻工业和高新技术产业有显著的“荷兰病”效应和“挤出效应”,表明在资源型省区的工业发展中,“资源诅咒”的风险的确存在。这种从分行业内部得到的解释依据,在现有“资源诅咒”的文献中很少见到,主要原因在于已有相关研究大多采用了总量生产函数构建模型,因此难以深入工业分行业的内部去考察更为细致和丰富的诅咒形成的具体表象和机制。总之,能源富集区经济低碳转型发展根本途径在于提高全要素生产率,即只有当全要素生产率的产出贡献大于投入要素的纯数量贡献并且保持持续增加,经济发展方式才会发生根本转变,低碳转型才会实现。提高全要素生产率的基本路径主要包括调整经济结构和加快技术进步和自主创新等。当然,这些路径需要一系列相关的配套政策支撑,诸如投资体制改革、就业、保障和民生、土地流转改革,节能减排规制改革等,也包括各种经济结构调整的政策和产业政策等。其中,严格的节能减排规制可谓一剂苦口的良药,短期内会给能源富集区的经济增长带来阵痛,而长远看则会有助于经济发展的根本转型。节能减排已经成为能源富集区发展方式转变与低碳转型的一种有效的“倒逼机制”,它能够倒逼经济结构调整,能够催生新能源和低碳技术,也将促进能效和环境效率的提高。更多还原

【Abstract】 From the beginning of the Twelfth Five-year Plan, China has been into a period of strategic opportunities and profound period of change to accelerate the transition of economic development model and achieve scientific development. The Twelfth Five-Year Program pointed out that the strategic adjustment of economic structure should be the main direction of the transformation of economic development model with the strong support of the scientific and technological and innovational progress. However, it is still outstanding that the current development is imbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable, such as the constraint resource and environment, many obstacles of development. Thus, there is still a long way to deepen reform and achieve transformation of the economic developmental model. From a practical point of view of regional economic development, various regions are faced with the difficult task of transformation of the economic developmental model. However, the pressures of restructure and development are still significantly different. As a special kind of resource-based regions, the energy-rich region is not only facing security of the continuing energy supply for the national economic development, but also achieving their own sustainable development. Therefore, it is especially an difficult task to make the transformation of the economic developmental model, implementing the sustainable development and low-carbon transformation. In this paper, efforts are made as the following aspects for the development of low-carbon transition in energy-rich regions of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia Provinces:1. Based on the special historical process of the formation of China’s energy rich regions, This paper analyzes the special problems of the regional transformation development and proves the inevitability of energy-rich regions pioneering development of low-carbon transformation. Based on the special problems of the energy-rich region, this point of view expands the arguments of existing low-carbon research. This view will undoubtedly face many challenges, but this article attempts giving more reasonable and scientific explanation and theoretical supports from inevitability, particularity, feasibility and the "reversed transmission mechanism" of energy conservation and emissions reduction.2. This paper has the quality of economic growth a test for the energy-rich region from the three aspects:"resource curse", the people’s livelihood achievement levels and the low-carbon economic growth. Resource Curse mainly discusses the relations between resource development and economic growth; livelihood achievements mainly talks about whether the resource bonus achievements have been transformed as the benefit of the general public; while the carbon level was mainly on the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions, designing to determine the economic growth ecological and environmental problems caused. By these three aspects of the test, we can roughly determine the level of quality of energy-rich region’s economic development. Despite the simple idea of this study, and its inconsistence with the mainstream economic development research of the quality literature of ideas, these three areas have better internal logic progressive relationship, convincingly evaluating and testing the quality of economic development for the energy-rich region.3. Based on energy and environment translog production function, this paper makes the growth accounting on the sub-industries in the energy-rich region. Studies have shown that the way of industrial development has achieved a productive intensive change. Industries have achieved remarkable advances in technology. TFP has become the first driver of industrial growth. Certainly. This optimistic conclusion is closely related to the analysis methods which are used. Although the follow-up studies show that optimism is more or less from the judgment the existence of bias, the growth accounting still reveals some other conclusions:(1)The traditional energy and heavy chemical industry accounted for the absolute dominance to the whole industry TFP growth in energy-rich region, which fully shows that the heavy chemical industry with high investment, high energy consumption and high emission energy has also made tangible advances in technology, and implies that the upgrading of traditional industries already has the appropriate industrial base in energy-rich region.(2) The high-technical industry is after the industry-wide growth in traditional energy heavy chemical industry, which indicates that the acceleration of the development of existing high-tech industries mainly depend on striving to enhance the scale and efficiency in energy-rich region, which will help to diversify the industrial structure, but also promote the transformation from extensive model of growth to sustainable model which is drove by technological progress.4. Based on directional distance function and activity analysis model (AAM) of carbon regulation, this paper measures low-carbon economy transition in energy-rich region. From the perspective of the analysis of growth accounting, most of the existing literature for countries mainly focused on the overall growth of a country’s domestic macro-level analysis and few studies have focused on specific regions or provinces, because of the difficulties of the data acquisition on the regional input-output, especially the data of capital stock which needs to be estimated by a special method, while due to the statistical inconsistencies which have increased the difficulty and precision of data acquisition. In this paper, I try to build37sub-industries input-output panel accurate database (1990-2011) of energy-rich region three Provinces for industrial growth accounting. The Green TFP measurement showed that the industrial development model transformation of energy-rich area has not been achieved and low-carbon transition process still has a long way to go. This indicates that we will significantly overestimate TFP and the rate of technological progress or draw a wrong conclusion on evaluating economic development model transition if we do not incorrectly consider about disposal of environmental pollution variables. The Growth of industrial sub-sectors based on panel data analysis has also more detailed and extensive research results than that based on total production, which will provide a more precise empirical basis for industrial low-carbon transition of the energy-rich region. The capital and energy-driven features of the industrial growth is still significant in energy-rich region. However, from the early1990s to the early21st century, in the region, TFP, Production efficiency and rate of technological progress of energy emissions-intensive heavy industries appeared better than light industries. This can be called the Industrial Green Productivity Revolution. In the21st century, China’s industry appears the phenomenon of heavy industrialization again, which will have a special significance for energy-rich region:On the one hand, from the perspective of economic demand and supply, China strongly demand for energy and heavy chemical products behind the rising phenomenon of the heavy industrialization again, which brought a huge market for the industrial development of energy-rich region. By meeting these market demands, the total energy-rich region’s economy will rapidly increase; the economy will maintain a rapid growth.On the other hand, from the perspective of the quality of economic development and low-carbon transition, the heavy reindustrialization phenomenon will undoubtedly increase the difficulty of low-carbon economy transition. However, under the constraints of rigid targets on international and domestic low-carbon development and under the urgent requirements of sustainable of energy-rich region economic development, it will form a strong "Forced mechanism ". It will force the energy-rich region to achieve a fundamental change in the way of industrial development and low carbon transition as soon as possible under maintaining moderate economic growth.5. Through the growth accounting on the sub-industries in energy-rich region, this paper gained some new perspectives about the "resource curse" explanation. The studies of37industrial sub-sectors shows that the traditional resource-dependent heavy industries produces a significant "crowding out" to the light industries and high-tech industries and also shows that the "resource curse" risk does exist in resource-based provinces. This detailed explanation on "resource curse" is difficult to see in the existing literature which mostly used the models of total production function; it is difficult to get into further internal industrial sub-sectors to find more detailed and specific representations on "resource curse" formation.In short, the fundamental way for economy low-carbon transition development in the energy-rich region is to improve TFP. Only when the contribution of TFP is greater than the number of pure inputs contribution and keeps increasing, the pattern of economic development will change radically and low-carbon transformation can be achieved. The basic path of improving TFP mainly includes adjustment of economic structure and speeding up technological progress and independent innovation, etc. of course, the paths needs a series of relevant supporting policies, such as the reform of investment system reform, employment, etc. Among them, the energy conservation and emissions reduction regulation will make short-term economic growth of the energy-rich region declined, but in the long term, it will contribute to a fundamental transformation of economic development. The energy conservation and emissions reduction regulation has been an effective "reversed transmission mechanism". It can reverse economic structural adjustment and create new energy and low-carbon technologies and will also promote energy efficiency and environment efficiency.更多还原