【作者】 杨露萍；

【导师】 钱大琳；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 系统工程， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 摘要：在我国加快城镇化建设的大背景下,机动车特别是私人机动车保有量迅速增加。尤其在一些经济相对发达大中城市,日益突出的供需矛盾加剧了城市交通拥堵,特别是早晚高峰期间,交通出行状况不容乐观。解决交通拥堵问题主要思路除了加快交通基础设施建设外,还应转变人们的交通出行模式。本文以通勤为切入点,研究促使通勤者放弃小汽车,转向运量大、占地少、资源利用率高的公共交通出行对缓解城市交通拥堵具有重要意义。本文首先运用系统理论,将通勤出行方式选择看成一个系统问题,分析了系统内外因素对通勤者方式选择决策的影响,研究了小汽车向公共交通转移的动力、阻力,以及转移的作用机理。通勤者是出行方式选择的核心,根据转移作用机理,从通勤者心理决策和出行行为特征两方面提出个人方式选择价值取向和活动两个关键因素,利用行为调查数据研究了其与转移的关联关系。基于力学原理定义了转移作用力,对交通工具(包括公共交通和小汽车)服务性能、小汽车通勤者本身对小汽车的依赖等几个主要直接作用力进行了研究,利用力的合成、动能定理等建立了小汽车通勤向公共交通转移意愿模型,划分小汽车通勤者的类型,基于转移意愿模型,利用交通调查数据比较了不同类型小汽车通勤者转移意愿,分析了促使不同类型小汽车通勤者转移条件的差异性。将政府和小汽车通勤者视为有限理性行为人,基于一定交通条件下通勤者转移意愿,利用演化博弈理论研究了公交优先政策下考虑政策制定成本以及不同通勤者间相互作用下转移的演化均衡策略。主要研究成果包括：第一,将通勤出行方式选择问题看成一个系统问题,分析了系统的概念、目标、特征、构成要素及其相互之间的关系等。研究了通勤者进行方式选择的决策过程,分析了系统内外因素对决策的影响。分析了促使小汽车通勤出行向公共交通转移的阻力、动力,研究了小汽车通勤向公共交通转移的作用机理。第二,提出了个人方式选择价值取向的概念,指出其是出行者进行方式选择时体现出的一种内在价值追求的表述,是影响方式选择行为的内在决定因素。分析了影响个人方式选择价值取向的主要因素,分析了交通工具对通勤者的主要价值,对个人方式选择价值取向进行了调查设计。研究了通勤出行链概念、特征和类型,基于转移行为调查数据,利用结构方程模型研究了通勤出行链、个人方式选择价值取向对转移的影响。第三,基于力学原理,提出了转移作用力的概念和类型,从出行时效、便利、舒适、经济等角度研究了公共交通及小汽车服务性能的计算指标,在此基础上研究了公共交通和小汽车所提供服务对小汽车通勤者的作用力。考虑通勤者个人方式选择价值取向及活动,研究了通勤者对小汽车依赖力。以小汽车通勤者为受力主体,对各作用力进行了力的合成。基于动能定理建立了小汽车向公共交通转移意愿模型。第四,从个人属性上按年龄和收入,划分小汽车通勤者类型,利用小汽车通勤向公共交通转移行为和意向调查数据分析不同类型小汽车通勤者转移行为和意向特征,基于转移意愿模型,利用转移意向调查数据对不同类型小汽车通勤者转移意愿进行了比较研究,分析了为促使不同类型小汽车通勤者转移条件的差异性。第五,阐述了公交优先政策的内涵、措施,研究了公交优先政策促进小汽车通勤转移的演化机理,基于一定交通条件下通勤者转移意愿,以政府和通勤者群体为博弈参与人,建立考虑政策制定成本下的演化博弈模型,分析了通勤者转移的六种演化均衡策略。以不同小汽车通勤者群体为博弈参与人,建立了考虑不同通勤者间相互作用的演化博弈模型,研究了通勤者相互作用下的四种演化均衡策略。以一个开通公交专用道为背景,对模型进行了算例分析。论文的创新点主要体现在以下几个方面：(1)将通勤出行方式选择看成一个系统问题,分析系统内外因素对转移的影响,研究了通勤出行方式选择的决策过程,分析了转移的阻力、动力以及转移的作用机理。(2)提出个人方式选择价值取向的概念、影响因素等,分析了交通工具对出行者具有的主要价值,对方式选择价值取向进行了调查设计,研究了通勤出行链的概念、特征、类型等,利用结构方程模型研究了个人方式选择价值取向、活动与方式转移的关联关系。(3)引入物理中的力学理论,提出了转移作用力的概念和类型。基于通勤出行方式选择系统主要构成要素,研究了小汽车、公共交通各项服务性能对通勤者的作用力、通勤者对小汽车的依赖力等几个主要直接作用力计算模型,以小汽车通勤者为受力主体,对各项作用力进行了力的合成。利用动能定理建立小汽车通勤向公共交通转移意愿模型。(4)将政府和小汽车通勤者视为有限理性行为人,基于一定交通条件下通勤者转移意愿,建立考虑政策制定成本下的演化博弈模型,分析了通勤者转移的六种演化均衡策略。基于一定交通条件下不同类型通勤者具有的转移意愿,建立了考虑不同通勤者间相互作用的演化博弈模型,研究了通勤者相互作用下的四种演化均衡策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 ABSTRACT:Nowadays the traffic jam especially on rush hours becomes more and more serious in some cities of China. Making people change their traffic mode and suggesting them to use more public transport for their trip is extremely an effective way to solve the problem. In the paper, model mode shift of car commuters to public transport has been studied, which is meaningful for government’s decision-making.Some work has been done in the paper which is listed in the following:Firstly,The problem of mode choice has been regarded as a system, the composing factors,aim,characters of the system have been put forward. The process of commuters decision making in mode choice has been studied under which the effect of system environment to the choice has been analyzed. Some primary resistance and impetus to the mode change from private car to public transport has been studied, under which the mechanism of model shift has been brought forward.Secondly,A new conception named value tropism of mode choice has been put forward, which is a principle intrinsic factor to people’s mode choice. After explaining the position, function, effected factors of the new conception, A survey project of the value tropism has been put forward. In the next, commuter chain has been studied, after that a model has been built for the purpose of finding the effect of value tropism and commuter chain to the mode choice using structural equation.Thirdly, The conception of shift force to car commuters has been described based on mechanics theory. Model the service characters of private car and public transport using mechanics theory has been studied. Kinetic energy theorem has been used to built the desire model of car commuters.Fourthly, car commuters have been classified to six category according to their income and age, The difference of desire degree for their mode-change has been analyzed based on the RP and SP survey data in Beijing Jingtong and Huilongguan district. By parameter estimation from survey data, It shows that different kinds of commuters have different preference for traffic conditions and habitual dependenceFinally,Evolutionary game theory has been used to analysis the action of car commuters under public transport first policy. Models of considering the policy cost and mutral-action of the commuters have been built separately. The evolutionary path has been analyzed. The innovation of the thesis can ben showed as follow:(1) The issue of mode choice has been regarded as a system, the effect of inner factors and environment of the system to the choice has been analyzed. Some primary resistance and impetus to the mode change from private car to public transport has been studied, under which the mechanism of model shift has been brought forward.(2) A new conception named value tropism of mode choice has been put forward. A survey project of the value tropism has been put forward. commuter chain has been studied, after that a model has been built for the purpose of finding the effect of value tropism and commuter chain to the mode choice using structural equation.(3) Mechanics theory has been brought in the thesis, The conception of shift force to car commuters has been described based on mechanics theory. Model the service characters of private car and public transport using mechanics theory has been studied. Kinetic energy theorem has been used to built the desire model of car commuters.(4) Evolutionary game theory has been used to analysis the action of car commuters under public transport first policy.The policy cost and mutral-action of the commuters have been considered separately. The evolutionary path has been analyzed.更多还原