【作者】 马宝玲；

【导师】 魏巍贤；

【作者基本信息】 对外经济贸易大学 ， 产业经济学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 进入21世纪以来，随着中国经济的快速发展和天然气勘探开发不断取得重大突破，中国天然气产业进入快速发展时期，天然气市场规模快速扩大，已成为亚洲第一大和世界第四大天然气消费国；供应格局由单气源、单管道供应转变为多气源、多路径、网络化供应；天然气供需缺口不断增长，对外依存度不断提高。根据《天然气发展“十二五”规划》，到2015年中国天然气消费量将达到2600亿立方米，是2011年天然气消费水平的两倍。此外，“十二五”期间将天然气在一次能源消费中的比重翻一番。该发展目标不仅在气源供应保障和基础设施建设方面存在挑战，同时，在定价方面也颇具挑战。随着天然气消费量和进口量的快速增长，中国与国际天然气市场的联系日益密切。以国内天然气生产成本为基础的“成本加成”的定价机制已经越来越不适应新形势，严重阻碍了天然气产业的健康发展，主要体现在现行价格机制执行难度日益增大、天然气的价格结构不合理、不同用气部门的价格关系不合理、天然气与替代能源的价格关系扭曲、进口气价与国产气价之间的差距越来越大、长期低价政策导致天然气消费市场过度发展以及现行定价机制对生产商的约束和激励不足等方面。中国天然气产业已经由起步期步入快速发展时期，市场化改革是中国天然气市场发展到当前阶段的必然选择。国际经验表明，市场化改革是一个漫长的过程，中国天然气市场化改革不可能一蹴而就。本文立足于产业经济学和规制经济学的研究成果和最新进展，运用规范分析与实证分析相结合，定性研究与定量分析相结合的研究方法，明确天然气政府规制与市场化改革的理论依据，总结适用于中国天然气市场化改革的国际经验，结合中国天然气市场的发展现状及目标，提出中国天然气市场化改革的远景目标和实施路径。本文的主要工作和创新如下：第一，分析中国天然气市场结构和定价机制面临的挑战，明确中国天然气市场化改革的迫切需求和基础条件。从资源与生产、基础设施、市场需求和供需形势四个方面来分析中国天然气工业的发展现状及未来趋势；从市场集中度、产品差别程度和进入壁垒三个方面分析中国天然气工业上、中和下游三个环节的市场结构特征。综合分析表明，中国天然气的上游和中游环节仍属于高度寡头垄断，下游环节为竞争型，但随着行业整合加剧，有向垄断型市场发展的趋势，值得引起警惕。在梳理中国天然气定价机制的演变的基础上，重点剖析了现行天然气定价机制面临的突出矛盾和挑战，介绍定价机制改革的最近进展，明确了中国天然气市场化改革的迫切需求和基础条件。第二，梳理政府规制理论最新进展和天然气行业特征，为中国天然气政府规制与市场化改革提供理论依据。政府规制和市场机制发挥的作用相辅相成，对天然气工业的健康发展都不可缺少。因此，要在非自然垄断环节不断引入竞争，在自然垄断环节不断寻求合理的规制方法。从整体上看，天然气产业属于自然垄断性产业，需要引入政府规制以刺激企业降低成本并提高资源配置效率。但并不是所有天然气业务都具有自然垄断性质，未来随着市场规模的扩展和生产技术的发展，自然垄断的范围和程度将逐渐缩减。因此，要区分天然气产业各个环节的业务性质，科学动态地制定分类规制政策。第三，总结欧美天然气市场化改革经验并实证分析改革效果，总结适用于中国天然气市场化改革的国际经验。首先，梳理美国、英国和欧洲大陆的市场化改革历程及最新进展，总结建立天然气市场机制的条件。但中国与任何欧美国家的市场情况都不尽相同，需要将欧美国家天然气市场刚开始实行自由化时的发展阶段与中国现在所处的阶段进行比较，以总结适用于中国天然气市场化改革的国际经验。其次，以美国为例对天然气定价机制改革的效果进行实证分析。实证研究表明，美国天然气价格放开管制后，天然气价格波动性显著增强，能较好地反映市场供应侧和需求侧的冲击，并很好地在上下游价格之间进行传递。不同用气部门之间的价格关系也较好地反映了市场结构特征。最后，对世界天然气市场一体化程度演变进行实证分析。从价格水平来看，美国Henry Hub气价最低，英国NBP和欧洲气价EUP居中，而日本LNG价格最高。从价格波动性来看，市场化程度和流动性最高的美国Henry Hub气价的波动性最小，日本LNG进口价格的波动性反而最大。这反映出市场定价机制的优势。从一体化程度来看，2000年以来世界天然气市场的一体化程度日益增强，但在2008年金融危机后出现分化，一体化程度不升反降，当前世界天然气市场的区域性依然较强。因此，无论是从价格风险管理的角度还是市场一体化进程的角度，亚太地区都急需建立本地区的天然气交易中心，形成地区基准价格，争取与自身市场规模相对应的市场影响力和定价权。第四，评估中国天然气市场价值，探讨中国建立天然气交易中心的可行性和发展前景，为中国天然气市场规划提供参考依据。中国的天然气需求在过去并且在未来数年内仍会处于快速增长的状态，但是随着天然气价格的上涨，重要领域的天然气价格承受能力将成为关键问题。本文运用支出限额法、替代成本法和终端产品净回值法评估中国天然气市场价值和价格承受能力，为政府制定天然气价格调控方案和天然气利用政策提供参考依据。在总结建立天然气交易中心的必备条件的基础上，对中国与日本、韩国、新加坡的市场条件进行对标分析。日本和韩国作为传统的地区天然气消费大国，具有较强的市场影响力，但受制于本土资源短缺一直未能建立起现代天然气市场机制；新加坡建立天然气交易中心的条件最为成熟，但受制于自身市场规模限制，未来能否发展成为地区性交易中心值得关注；中国天然气市场发展潜力最大，政府也彰显出了市场化改革的强烈意愿和建立交易中心的浓厚兴趣。总体来看，亚太地区各国与美国和英国在上世纪90年代的市场条件相比差距较大，短期内在亚太地区建立起具有影响力的交易中心的希望不大。运用SWOT分析发现，中国建立天然气交易中心的优势大于劣势，机遇大于挑战。中国已经有了创建主要基于LNG进口的上海贸易枢纽中心的初步尝试，可继续在深化市场化改革的基础上，提高交易中心的流动性，形成市场化改革与交易中心双向促进的局面。第五，明确中国天然气市场化改革的基本原则和实施路径，为中国天然气市场化改革提供政策建议。在总结规制理论进展和市场化改革国际经验的基础上，结合中国天然气工业的现状及前景，提出中国天然气市场化改革的基本原则和实施路径。中国天然气行业政府规制的基本原则是对自然垄断性业务采用激励性规制以获得规模经济，对竞争性业务放松规制以充分发挥市场机制的作用，使整个天然气产业处于规模经济与竞争活力相兼容的有效竞争状态。中国天然气市场化改革要按照“渐进、可控、有效”的思路，采取制度建设、市场培育、价格改革和交易中心“四位一体”的实施路径。四位一体的实施路径是市场化改革的总体布局，是一个有机整体，要以制度建设为基础，市场培育为前提，价格改革为核心，交易中心为重点。只有坚持四位一体全方位、协调推进天然气市场化改革，才能建立起竞争有序、充满活力的天然气市场。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of China’s economy and major breakthroughs innatural gas exploration and development, China’s natural gas industry has entered arapid development period. The scale of the natural gas market expands rapidly, hasbecome Asia’s largest and the world’s fourth largest consumer. The gas supply patternhas transformed from a single gas source and a single pipeline into a multi-source andmulti-path network. The gap between natural gas supply and demand continues toincrease, which results in a growing foreign dependence. According to the “TwelfthFive-Year Plan” of natural gas development, China’s natural gas consumption willreach260billion cubic meters by2015, which is twice the level of natural gasconsumption in2011. And the proportion of natural gas in primary energyconsumption will double during the Twelfth Five-Year. The development goals arechallenging not only in terms of gas supply and infrastructure construction, but also interms of pricing.With the rapid growth of natural gas consumption and imports, China has becomeincreasingly closer with the international natural gas market. The "cost plus" pricingmechanism based on domestic natural gas production costs has become increasinglyunsuited to the new situation, which mainly display in the following areas: increasingdifficulty of the implementation of the current pricing mechanism, irrational naturalgas price structure, unreasonable price relationship between different departments,distorted price relationship between natural gas and its alternative energy, increasinggap between imported and domestic gas prices, excessive consumption developmentdue to the long-term low gas price policy, inadequate incentive of the existing pricingmechanism for manufacturers, etc.Market-oriented reform is an inevitable choice of China’s natural gas market atcurrent stage. Internatiaonal experience shows that market-oriented reform is a longprocess. Market-oriented reform in China’s natural gas industry can not be achievedovernight. Based on regulation theory and the latest developments, firstly this paperspecifies the theoretical basis for natural gas government regulation andmarket-oriented reform. Secondly, this paper summarizes international experienceapplicable to China’s natural gas market-oriented reform. Finally, this paper proposesfuture objective and implementation paths of China’s gas market-oriented reform. Acombination research method of normative and empirical analysis and a combinationof qualitative and quantitative analysis are adopted in this paper. The main work andinnovations of this paper are as follows:(1) Specifying the status and goals of China’s gas market-oriented reform throughanalyzing the market structure and the challenges faced by China’s gas pricingmechanism. Firstly, we analyze the status and future trends of China’s natural gas industry from four aspects, namely, resources and production, infrastructure, marketdemand, supply and demand situation. Secondly, we analyze market structurecharacteristics of China’s natural gas industry from market concentration, productdifference and entry barriers. Comprehensive analysis shows that upstream andmidstream sectors of China’s natural gas industry are still highly oligopolistic, whilethe downstream sector is competitive. With the increasing consolidation in thedownstream sector, there is a tendency towards monopoly which deserves vigilance.Thirdly, we introduce the evolution and recent advances of China’s natural gas pricingmechanism and analyze the outstanding challenges faced by the existing pricingmechanism.(2) Providing theoretical basis for government regulation and market-orientedreform in China’s gas industry through analyzing the latest developments of regulationtheory and features of gas industry. Government regulation and market mechanismsplay a complementary role in promote the healthy development of the natural gasindustry. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce competition mechanism in thecompetitive sectors and seek a reasonable regulatory approach the natural monopolysectors. Features of gas industry include economies of scale, economies of scope,sub-additivity of cost and etc. Overall, the natural gas industry is a natural monopolyindustry which needs government regulation to improve the efficiency of resourceallocation. With the development of production technology and market scale, the scopeand extent of natural monopoly will gradually weaken. Therefore, it is necessary todevelop different regulation polices for different business sectors dynamically.(3) Summarizing international experience applicable to China’s gasmarket-oriented reform through analyzing the experience and effects of gasmarket-oriented reforms in Europe and America. Firstly, we summarize conditions ofestablishing gas market mechanisms by analyzing market reform process and the latestdevelopments in the U.S., UK and continental Europe. As China’s gas marketsituations are different from the United States and Europe, there are no experience canbe directly applied to China’s market without considering the adaptability. Therefore,it’s highly necessary to compare China’s current market situations with the situationswhen American and European countries started to liberalize the gas market. Secondly,we run empirical analysis of the reform effect taking example of the United States.Empirical studies show that gas prices fluctuate significantly after the U.S.deregulation of natural gas prices. Gas prices reflect shocks in market supply side anddemand side and pass nicely between upstream and downstream prices. Pricerelationships between different gas sectors also reflect the market structure. Finally, werun empirical analysis of the evolution of the world gas market integration. From theperspective of price level, the U.S. Henry Hub gas price is the lowest, while JapanLNG price is the highest. From the perspective of price volatility, the market liquidityof Henry Hub is the smallest, while Japan’s LNG import price is the largest. This reflects the advantages of market pricing mechanism. From the perspective ofintegration degree, the integration degree of the world gas market is growing since2000. But after the2008financial crisis, the integration degree is falling instead ofrising. Whether from the point of price risk management or from the perspective ofmarket integration, it’s highly urgent to establish a natural gas trading center in theAsia-Pacific region.(4) Providing reference for China’s gas market planning through assessing themarket value of natural gas and exploring the feasibility and prospects of establishinggas trading center in China. China’s gas demand will keep growing fast in the next fewyears. As gas prices increase, the affordability of gas price will be a key issue. Weadopt three methods, namely spending limit law, replacement cost method and netreturn value method, to assess the market value of natural gas. To explore thefeasibility and prospects of establishing gas trading center in China, firstly we sum upthe necessary conditions to establish a natural gas trading center. Secondly, wecompare market conditions and development prospects of China, Japan, South Koreaand Singapore. As traditional regional gas consuming countries, Japan and SouthKorea has a strong market influence. But subject to the shortage of resources, Japanand South Korea has not established modern gas market mechanisms. Singapore hasthe most mature conditions to establish a gas trading center, but future ability todevelop into a regional trading center is of concern due to its limited market size.China has the largest development potentiality of gas market. The government shows astrong will to establish market-oriented reforms and a strong interest in establishing atrading center. Overall, Asia-Pacific countries have a large gap compared with the U.S.and UK market conditions in the1990s. It is difficult to establish an influencingtrading center in the short-term in Asia-Pacific. Finally, we run SWOT analysis andfind that China has more strengths than weaknesses, and opportunities outweighchallenges in establishing a gas trading center.(5) Providing policy recommendations for China’s gas market-oriented reformthrough specifying basic principles and implementation paths. The basic principle ofgovernment regulation policy is adopting incentive regulation methods in naturalmonopoly business and deregulation methods in competitive busines in order toachieve economies of scale and competitive vitality in the entire gas industry. Theimplementation paths are "four in one" model, namely system construction as the basis,market cultivation as the premise, price reform as the core and trading center as thefocus. Only by adopting the “four in one” model, it’s possible to establish acompetitive, orderly and vibrant gas market.更多还原