【作者】 程健；

【导师】 林桂军；

【作者基本信息】 对外经济贸易大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 自从加入世贸组织以来，我国的外贸进出口规模迅速增长，2001年我国进出口总额为2661亿美元，到2013年已经增长到4.16万亿美元。与此同时，贸易顺差也在不断扩大，2008年贸易顺差达到创纪录的2981.3亿美元，2013年仍然高达2597.5亿美元，是2001年的10.2倍。国际收支的不平衡已经成为中国当前经济运行中的突出问题。我国持续增长的巨额盈余引发了近年来诸多的贸易摩擦，使中国的对外贸易环境恶化，人民币升值的压力增加。扩大进口可以解决我国贸易不平衡的问题，同时还可以平衡国际收支，优化高额的外汇储备。适当的扩大进口是一个非常自然和正确的政策选择。目前，我国的进口还具有很大的潜力，国内经济的高速增长对进口的需求也不断扩大。因此，研究我国进口贸易发展现状、特征及其发展的影响因素，对于制定合理的进口发展战略，深化产业结构调整，促进产业升级，平衡对外贸易结构，促进经济平衡发展具有重要的意义。本文主要对我国的进口特征及影响因素进行研究。全文主要分为八个部分，具体的内容安排如下：第一部分，引言。该部分主要介绍了文章研究的背景以及研究意义，国内外关于进口方面的研究现状，提出文章主要研究的内容以及拟解决的主要问题，最后总结了本文研究的创新点和不足之处。第二部分，我国进口贸易发展历史与现状。该部分主要是对我国进口贸易发展的历史与现状进行分析，涵盖的方面主要包括：进口总额及增长率、进口依存度、进口的商品结构、进口的主体结构、进口的市场结构、进口的方式结构等，从而在宏观上对我国的进口的发展状况有了一个较为明确的把握。第三部分，我国进口政策研究。该部分首先阐述我国进口贸易政策的演变过程，主要从关税、非关税、外汇制度几个方面介绍，并对不同时期的进口贸易政策做出了简要的评价。总体而言，我国目前进口政策是生产型和出口导向型的政策体系，进口主要服务于出口。对原材料和中间产品进口征收较低关税，对制成品进口征收较高关税，同时，对部分消费品征收较高消费税。尽管我国制定了鼓励先进技术及核心零部件的进口政策，但部分产品受到发达国家的出口限制，进口比重和政策效果有限。随后，指出了进口政策存在的主要问题：进口政策整体上偏向于限制，与产业政策、出口政策相互脱节，进口环节税较高等。为此，我国应当从关税、非关税壁垒、汇率制度、政策协调四个方面进行政策方面的改进。第四部分，我国进口贸易的特征分析。长期以来，我国就一直存在“重出口、轻进口”、“重生产、轻消费”和“重引进、轻创新”的发展状况，反映了我国发展战略中，长期存在静态的“进口替代”思路，同时，指出了我国在“进口替代”过程中所存在的问题。第五部分，当前我国扩大进口的影响。首先，分析了当前对我国进口进行调整的必要性，随后分析了扩大进口的影响，适当的扩大进口的规模，对于实现我国贸易平衡、提升国际形象、提高资源的配置效率、促进技术进步、提高消费者福利、缓解贸易摩擦、建立与完善市场竞争机制、确保国内生产和经济安全具有重要的作用。同时，进口并一定会带来绝对的正效应，如果把握不当，也会对国民经济也可能带来危害，包括对国内幼稚产业造成冲击，对外国产品和技术过分依赖，贸易条件恶化以及福利损失等。单独分析中间品的进口，对于零部件来说，从短期看，零部件的进口会产生一定的技术溢出效应，会导致我国成套机器设备的出口的技术含量有所提升，但是从长远来看，我国需要摆脱对于进口零部件的过分依赖，逐步提升本土企业的零部件自主创新能力；对于成套机器设备来说，从短期来看，成套机器设备的进口促进了消费品出口的升级，但是，从长期来看，加剧了我国本土装备企业和国外的差距，对我国装备制造业的可持续发展不利。第六部分，我国进口贸易影响因素研究——基于引力模型的面板数据分析。该部分首先对影响我国进口贸易发展的因素进行了定性的分析，然后通过建立基于贸易引力模型的面板数据模型，对影响进口贸易的主要因素进行计量分析。研究结果发现：对我国进口贸易的发展具有较为决定性影响的主要有我国出口贸易的发展、双边国家的贸易成本、外商直接投资、双边国家的经济发展规模和贸易双方间的地理距离等因素，消费支出对进口贸易的影响效果并不明显。我国加入WTO之后贸易壁垒的降低对我国进口贸易有一定的促进作用，金融危机的爆发对我国的进口贸易有一定的阻碍作用，但是，这两种因素在本文模型的所研究的时间范围内，并不具有持续性的影响效果。第七部分，我国发展进口贸易的对策建议。本部分主要是综合前文理论和实证的分析结果，结合我国进口贸易的实际情况，提出了我国发展进口贸易的思路及对策建议。第八部分，总结。该部分对全文进行了总结，并对未来进一步的研究方向进行了展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since China joined in the WTO, China’s foreign trade has a rapid growth, from$266.1billion in2001to nearly$4.16trillion in2013. Meanwhile, Trade surplus alsohas a constantly expanding unceasingly, it hits a record$298.13billion in2008, with$259.75billion in2013, is10.2times that of2001.The imbalance in internationalpayments has become a prominent problem in the current Chinese economic operation.Excessive trade surplus caused many trade frictions in recent years, and made China’sforeign trade environment to worsen, increased the pressure on the appreciation of theRMB. Expand imports can solve the problem of multilateral and bilateral trade balance,as well as balance the international payments, optimizes high foreign exchangereserves. Proper expand import is a very natural and correct policy. At present,Chinese import also has great potentiality, and the rapid growth of the domesticeconomy is expanding the demand of imports. Therefore, studying the presentsituation, characteristics and influence factors of China import trade development is ofgreat significance to establish reasonable import development mode, to achieve thetrade structure balance, and to promote the economic development.The paper is mainly divided into eight parts; the specific contents are as follows:The first part is introduction. This part mainly introduces the research backgroundand research significance of this paper, and reviews the research status at home andabroad, puts forword the main content of the research and the main problems thatdrafted to solved, and finally put forward the innovation and deficiencies.In the second part is to introduce the historical development and present situationof import trade in china. This part is mainly to analyze the history and current situationof the import trade development in China, which covering mainly includes: totalimports and growth rate, import dependency, goods structure of the imports, mainstructure of imports, market structure of imports, Mode structure of imports, etc.,therefore, we have a more clear understanding on the development status of China’simported from macro perspective.In the third part is to study the China import policy. Firstly, this part discusses theevolution of import trade policy in our country mainly from tariff and non-tariff, andmade a brief evaluation on different periods of import trade policies. Overall, China’s current import policy is the policy system of production and export-oriented, that is,import services for export. Imposed lower tariffs on raw materials and intermediateproducts, and imposed higher tariffs on manufactured goods, at the same time,imposed higher consumption tax on some consumer goods. Although the policyencourage to import advanced technology and core components, some products exportare restricted by Western, so the proportion of imports and the effects of policies arelimited. Then, this paper points out the main existing problems of import policy: thelack of strategic and forward-looking, disjointed with industrial policy and exportpolicy and the high import link tax. Therefore, China should improve policy fromtariffs, non-tariff barriers, exchange rate system, and policy coordination.The fourth part is to analysis the characteristics of China’s import trade. This partfocus on the developing status of China imports trade, which demonstrates that ourcountry has long-standing static "import substitution", and points out the existingproblems in the process of "import substitution"The fifth part is to research the influence of increase imports. Firstly, the paperanalyses the necessity of adjusting China current imports, then analysis the influenceof increase imports. Expanding the scale of the imported properly plays an importantrole to promote the international image, improve the efficiency of resource allocation,promote technological progress, improve consumers’ welfare, ease trade friction,establish and improve the market competition mechanism, ensure domestic productionand economic security. At the same time, imports may also has harm aspect to thenational economy, including the impact of domestic infant industries, relying onforeign products and technology, deterioration of trade terms, and the welfare loss, etc.Take imported intermediate goods in a account, for the parts in the short term, theimports of parts and components will produce technology spillover effect, causes thetechnical content of China complete sets of machinery and equipment exports can beimproved, but in the long run, China needs to get rid of the excessive dependence onimported parts and components, and gradually improve the independent innovationability of local parts enterprise; for complete sets of equipment, in the short term,import of complete sets of equipment can promote the upgrading of consumer goodsexports, but in the long run, exacerbated by local equipment enterprises in China and abroad. That is unfavorable to the sustainable development of China’s equipmentmanufacturing industry.The sixth part is to research the influence factors of China import trade based onthe panel data analysis of gravity model. The first part makes a qualitative analysis onfactors influencing import trade, then makes econometric analysis on the factorsaffecting import trade through the establishment of panel data model based on tradegravity model. The results showed that: the influence factors on the development ofChina’s import trade are the development of export trade, bilateral trade cost, foreigndirect investment, country’s economic development and bilateral geographical distance,the effect of the impact of consumer spending on imports is not obvious. Reduction oftrade barriers promotes Chinese imports after our country joins in WTO, and theoutbreak of the financial crisis has certain negative effects on China’s imports.However, these two factors in the model of the studied time intervals, does not havethe persistent effect.The seventh part is to put forward the suggestion to the China import tradedevelopment. Based on the above theoretical and empirical analysis of the results, thepaper puts forward the suggestion to the China import trade development according tothe actual situation of China’s import trade.The eighth part is to carry on the full summary of the paper and the furtherresearch direction is discussed.更多还原