【作者】 肖威；

【导师】 吴军；

【作者基本信息】 对外经济贸易大学 ， 金融学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 自从1997年以来，我国的经济均衡方式逐渐由资源约束下的短缺经济向需求约束下的过剩经济转化。在这样的经济背景下，中国出现了明显的有效需求不足问题。通货膨胀率总体下降，但货币沉淀越来越严重，M2/GDP不断上升，而农产品价格在近年却出现了阶梯式的大涨。“中国货币迷失”现象又再次发生和结构性通货膨胀现象，引发了对中国货币需求层面和供给层面潜在通货膨胀压力的普遍担忧。2008年，美国金融危机以及之后2009年以来在欧洲部分国家主权债务危机的爆发，对包括中国在内的全球经济造成了较大的负面影响。为应对危机，中国出台了一揽子经济刺激措施，采取了积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，取得了明显成效，较快扭转了2009年一季度经济增速下滑态势，成功抵御了金融危机最直接的严峻挑战。但应对危机的扩张性政策的负面影响也开始显现。为支持经济较快发展的宽松货币政策导致了货币供应量的快速增长。广义货币的过快增长再一次导致对未来的通货膨胀形势的担忧。在这样的经济背景下，关于中国的通货膨胀有两个问题需要回答：一是在这么高的货币供应量增长下，为什么没有发生与之相匹配的通货膨胀？货币迷失现象再次出现在中国？这样高的货币存量是否会造成未来的潜在通货膨胀压力？二是农产品价格存在着强烈的涨价动能，却为什么常常出现大起大落？这是否会造成中国未来的高通货膨胀？本文正是在这样的经济背景下，试图对中国自1997年以来的潜在通货膨胀压力进行研究。本文总体上分为五部分。第一部分包括第一、二和三章，本部分首先从中国近年通货膨胀现象的两大矛盾入手，提出本文要研究的问题，界定了潜在通货膨胀压力的内涵；其次，对现有关于潜在通货膨胀压力和通货膨胀成因的文献进行了尽可能充分的梳理，重点归纳了对货币迷失之谜下的潜在通货膨胀压力、通货膨胀成因的研究现状、研究方法和对该问题原因的不同解释；第一章是本文的导论，主要是分析近年通货膨胀的背景，提出本文研究的问题，以及对该问题的研究意义，研究内容，研究思路和方法，研究计划以及创新之处。第二章回顾和梳理了国内外关于中国货币迷失之谜的解释、货币迷失下的潜在通货膨胀压力和中国通货膨胀成因的文献，总结了需要进一步研究的内容。第三章介绍了中国自改革开放以来的通货膨胀现象，分析了潜在通货膨胀压力积累的经济背景。第二部分为第四、五章，这一部分的重点在于分别从需求层面和供给层面对潜在通货膨胀压力进行研究分析，估计未来的潜在通货膨胀压力形势。一方面，从有效需求不足的角度，对需求层面的通货膨胀压力进行了研究，回答了中国的货币迷失之谜；然后从实证的角度构建了货币势能概念，对中国未来需求层面的潜在通货膨胀压力进行了预测研究。另一方面，通过结构性通货膨胀理论模型研究了中国通货膨胀的特征，然后分析了历年结构性通货膨胀的理论值和实际值之间的差距，发现农产品抑价的存在，分析农产品抑价的产生原因及其造成的潜在通货膨胀压力。第三部分包括第六章，主要是从成因分解的角度重新对中国近年以来的通货膨胀进行了成因研究。首先构建数量模型，量化分解通货膨胀成因，采用统计学的因子分析法，对构成CPI的32个小类子成分进行实证研究；分解出源于需求和供给两个层面的通货膨胀程度指标。然后对通货膨胀成因分解的结果进行研究，并为后文从需求层面和供给层面对潜在通货膨胀压力进行研究奠定了理论基础。第四部分包括第七、八章，主要研究了潜在通货膨胀压力释放的条件，及潜在通货膨胀压力释放的可控性。第七章首先总结需求层面和供给层面的潜在通货膨胀压力形势；然后通过研究需求层面潜在通货膨胀压力的释放条件,认为有效需求不足问题是造成潜在通货膨胀压力的主要原因，而居民收入差距、社会保障制度不完善等是造成有效需求不足的主要原因。因此如果收入差距缩小、社会保障制度进一步完善，则有可能会发生通货膨胀现象。供给层面潜在通货膨胀压力释放的条件主要是农业经济的进一步发展、农业产业化的推进。这些通货膨胀压力释放的条件也说明了潜在通货膨胀压力释放的必然性。然后利用P-Star方法对中国未来通货膨胀进行预测研究。第八章接着对潜在通货膨胀压力释放的可控性进行了研究，通过理论建模和数据模拟，对中国家庭进行通货膨胀压力测试；采用问卷调研的方法对中国家庭的通货膨胀承受能力进行了实际调研和总结。第五部分包括第九章。这一部分对全文的研究内容和研究结论进行了回顾，并提出了应对潜在通货膨胀压力的政策建议，以及未来进一步的研究方向。本文的结论主要有：第一，我国通货膨胀的主要成因是需求面的货币、信贷扩张因素，而供给层面的通货膨胀对经济的正面效应超过负面效应。在不同的时期内，中国通货膨胀成因有所区别。在2003年以前，需求层面实际上是处于通货紧缩的状态，而供给层面的结构性通货膨胀较高，这对于缓解通货紧缩问题、理顺价格体系，促进经济协调、可持续发展，起到了积极作用。而2007年以来发生的明显、甚至严重的通货膨胀，主要是由需求层面的货币、信用因素拉上的。第二，需求层面的潜在通货膨胀压力很大。本文研究发现，沉积货币对未来四年以内的通货膨胀都会造成明显的影响。中国的沉积货币形势非常严重，未来中国的通货膨胀很有可能会因为需求层面的压力释放而造成比较高的通货膨胀率。第三，供给层面的潜在通货膨胀压力也较大。研究发现由于小农经济的生产方式，农民没有市场主体地位，没有定价权。农产品价格经常受到人为的压低，导致了比较严重的农产品抑价现象。中国存在明显的农产品抑价，农产品价格还应当在2012年的价格基础上上涨20%。第四，需求层面的潜在通货膨胀压力和供给层面的潜在通货膨胀压力的释放都极有可能在未来发生。一旦消费需求改善，或是扩大内需和发展现代农业经济，都会导致潜在通货膨胀压力的释放。而无论是消费需求改善，还是以内需为主的战略、现代化农业经济的发展，都是未来中国经济发展的必然趋势。因此，无论是需求层面还是供给层面，潜在通货膨胀压力的释放都是一个必然的现象。第五，通过对中国家庭的通货膨胀压力测试和对居民的通货膨胀承受能力问卷调研，发现中国家庭能够承受的通货膨胀最大限度应该在5%以下。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since1997, China’s economy gradually transformed from a balanced mannerunder the constraint of a shortage of economic resources to a balanced manner underthe economy constraints of excess demand. In this context, China has shown a signifi-cant lack of effective demand problem. The overall inflation rate has dropped, butthere is more and more monetary precipitate, the M2/GDP has risen quickly, but agri-cultural prices have been stepped rising in recent years.“Chinese monetary puz-zle”phenomenon and structural inflation phenomenon also led to widespread concernsabout the potential inflationary pressures through demand level and supply level.The U.S. financial crisis and the outbreak of the European sovereign debt crisissince2009, adversely affected the global economy including China,. To deal with thecrisis, China adopted a package of economic stimulus measures including a proactivefiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, and achieved remarkable results,quickly reversing the slowdown in economic growth momentum in the first quarter of2009; successfully weathered the most direct challenges of the financial crisis. How-ever, the negative impact of policies has emerged. To support the rapid economic de-velopment, the loose monetary policy has led to the rapid growth of the money supply.Excessive growth of broad money once again lead to inflation expectations in the fu-ture that we are very concerned about.In this economic context, we are about to answer two questions of China’s infla-tion: First, in such a high money supply growth environment, why there are no suchinflation? Monetary phenomenon lost again in China? Whether such a high stock ofmoney will cause potential inflationary pressures in future? Second, there is a strongkinetic energy of agricultural prices rising, but why often appear rose and fell?Whether it will result in high inflation in future? This article is trying to research thepotential inflationary pressures in China since1997in this economic background.This paper is divided into five parts in general.The first part includes first, second and third chapter. In the first part, from thetwo Chinese contradictory phenomenon of inflation in recent years,we first puts for-ward the problem of this article to study, defines the meaning of potential inflationarypressures;Secondly, the existing information on potential currency inflation causes ofinflation pressure and literature were combing the fullest, focusing on the potentialinflationary pressures summed up the mystery of the lost money under the differentinterpretations of the causes of inflation, research status, research methods and thecause of the problem; first chapter is the introduction of this paper, in this chapter, weanalyze the background of inflation in recent years, and the questions of this study, aswell as the significance of the issue, content, ideas and methods, research programs and innovations. The second chapter reviews and combed the research literature ofexplaining Chinese monetary puzzle, potential inflationary pressures and the causes ofinflation in China, summed up the further research literature content. The third chap-ter describes the phenomenon of inflation in China since the reform and opening up,and analyzes the economic background when potential inflationary pressures accumu-lated.The second part is divided into chapter four and five, the key point of this part isto research and analysis the potential inflationary pressures at the demand level andthe supply level respectively, as well as to, estimate the future potential inflationarypressure situation. On the one hand, in this part we have studied the inflationary pres-sures at demand level from the perspective of insufficient effective which has ans-wered the mystery of China’s currency lost; then constructed monetary potentialenergy concept from the perspective of empirical,and predicted the potential inflatio-nary pressure at the demand level for China’s future. On the other hand, we have stu-died the structural inflation characteristics of China’s inflation by a theoretical model,then have analyzed the gap between the theoretical value and the actual value of thestructural inflation over the years, found the existence of the underpricing of agricul-tural products, and analyze the reasons which caused agricultural underpricing andthe potential inflationary pressures is caused.The third part includes chapters VI, in which we have mainly studied the causesof inflation recent years in China from the perspective of the causes decomposition.First we build the quantitative models to quantify the causes of inflation decomposi-tion,,and make a empirical research of the32CPI components by using statisticalfactor analysis method; decomposition the indicators of the degree of inflation fromboth the demand and the supply level. Then we study the results of the formation de-composition of inflation, and laid a theoretical foundation for the later study of thepotential inflationary pressures both at the demand and supply level.Part IV includes the seventh, eighth chapters, in this part we has mainly studiedthe conditions and controllability of the release of the potential inflationary pressure.Chapter VII has firstly summarized the situation of the potential inflationary pressuresat the demand and supply levels; then by studying the release conditions of potentialinflationary pressures at the demand level., we considered the main reason whichcaused the potential inflationary pressures is insufficient effective demand, while themain reasons which caused the lack of effective demand are the income gap and theimperfect social security system. So the narrowness of income gap and the further im-provement of the social security system may lead to the inflation. The release condi-tions of potential inflationary pressures at supply level are the further development ofagricultural economy and the proceeding agricultural industrialization. These condi- tions also illustrate the inevitability of the potential inflationary pressure release. Weuse the P-Star approach to predict and study the future inflation in China.With that inChapter VIII we have studied the controllability of the release of the potential infla-tionary pressure through theoretical modeling and data modeling, we have tested theinflationary pressures on the Chinese families; and do actual research and summaryon inflation affordability of Chinese families through questionnaire survey method.The fifth part includes Chapter IX. This part has reviewed the content and theconclusions of the study, and it also has offered the policy proposals that to deal withthe pressures of potential inflationary, as well as the future direction for further re-search.The main conclusions of this paper are:First, the main causes of inflation of our country is monetary, credit expansion atthe demand level, while the positive effects on economy of the inflation on the supplylevel surpass the negative effects. The causes of inflation in China differs during dif-ferent periods,. Before2003, the demand level is actually in a state of deflation, whilethe structural inflation at the supply level is higher, which has played a positive effectfor ease deflation, rationalize the price system, promote coordinated economic andsustainable development. But since2007, the obviously, even serious inflation oc-curred are caused mainly by the monetary, credit factors at the demand level.Second, the potential inflationary pressures at the demand level are great. Thisstudy found that will have a significant impact on inflation within next four years. Thesituation of China’s depositing money is very serious, thus the release of the demandlevel pressure is likely give rise to a relatively high rate of inflation in the future.Third, the potential inflationary pressure at supply level is great as well. Thestudy found that due to the small-scale peasant production, farmer’s lack of marketdominant position, and pricing power. And the price of Agricultural production hasoften been artificially lowered, which results in a serious agricultural production un-derpricing phenomenon. Since the price of agricultural production in China has beenobviously depressed, it should rise by20%on the basis of2012.Fourth, the release conditions of the potential inflationary pressures are very like-ly to occur in the future both at the demand and supply level.. Once the consumer de-mand is improving, or domestic demand is expanding and the development of modernagricultural economy, will lead to the release of potential inflationary pressures. Andall of the three are the inevitable trend of China’s future economic development.Therefore, regardless of the demand level or supply level, the release of potential in-flationary pressures is an inevitable phenomenon.Fifth, through the questionnaire survey which is about the inflationary pressuretesting and inflationary affordability of Chinese families, the study found that the maximum inflation that Chinese families could withstand is below5%.更多还原