【作者】 刘英；

【导师】 吴军；

【作者基本信息】 对外经济贸易大学 ， 金融学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 近年来，特别是全球范围的金融危机爆发以来，我国外向型产业压力骤然增加。一方面，国外市场需求的减少以及人民币汇率升值等因素致使外向型产业企业的内外融资能力下降。我国的外向型产业企业在国际分工中处于产业链低端，定价能力低，因此无法通过提高产品价格转嫁快速上升的生产要素成本，进而出现利润持续下降甚至严重亏损，造成企业的内源融资减少。同时人民币升值等因素导致外商大量撤资，外资流入的减少对困境中的外向型产业无疑是雪上加霜。另一方面，越来越多的外向型产业企业将资金从生产中抽离，投入可能牟取暴利的房地产市场和资本市场，如股票市场甚至高利贷市场。其结果是我国的部分外向型地区和部分外向型行业中均出现了不同程度的产值增速下滑、投资减少和就业减少的现象。如果此现象愈演愈烈，未来我国或将步日本、美国的后尘，陷入空心化危机。在这一现实背景下，本文基于人民币汇率升值及升值预期的视角，深入分析外向型产业空心化的成因，这对于我国外向型经济发展具有十分重要的理论和现实意义。本文对国内外相关文献中关于产业空心化的定义、成因分析、危害、度量指标、数值分析等方面进行梳理和评述，并在此基础上从以下方面展开研究：首先，界定本文的研究对象。在给出外向型产业的研究性定义后，为了使研究对象更为具体和明确，本文通过聚类分析的方法从我国全部省、市、自治区筛选出九个“外向型地区”，从制造业全部行业中选出七个“外向型行业”，作为外向型产业空心化的最终研究对象；进而给出本文对外向型产业空心化的定义及空心化的六个量化指标，并以第一个指标为例，通过数学推导详细的阐述了指标变化趋势的具体含义（详见附录A-G）；在此基础上，按我国实际经济数据，分别计算了九个外向型地区和七个外向型行业从2000年至2011年历年的空心化指标，分析其12年间的变化趋势；此外，为了考察不同规模和不同类型的企业在不同的外向型地区和外向型行业中空心化的程度，本文在九个外向型地区和七个外向型行业中，按照企业规模和类型，分别计算了大中型企业、小微型企业以及国有企业，私有企业和外资企业的空心化指数，并就其12年间的变化趋势进行分析，然后，将6个指标的结果进行汇总，最终给出不同的外向型地区、外向型行业以及不同规模、不同类型的企业空心化程度及趋势的综合判断。其次，基于本文对外向型产业的定义，提出了与以往文献中不尽相同的外向型产业空心化的影响因素：外贸出口增长减缓、外商直接投资增长减缓，房地产价格高涨、股票指数的波动、生产成本的增加。从理论上分析和阐释了上述因素与外向型产业空心化之间的内在联系和互动机制，并得出结论：当外向型产业的出口及外商直接投资的增长减缓、房地产等资产价格高涨、生产成本的上升会造成外向型产业的产值、利润、投资、就业增长下降，引发甚至加剧外向型产业的空心化、使空心化效应得以强化。进而，结合我国实际经济数据，利用面板数据模型，分别对九个外向型地区和七个外向型行业的空心化影响因素进行实证分析，实证结果均支持前面的理论分析。由于上述引发外向型产业空心化的大部分因素均会受到人民币汇率变动的巨大影响，而我国又处于人民币汇率升值及持续升值的预期中，因此本文在综合整理了汇率变动对贸易出口、外商直接投资、房地产价格和股票价格影响的基本理论及相关的研究成果后，从理论和数理模型角度分别探讨了人民币升值对外向型地区及外向型行业空心化的贸易传导机制、外商直接投资传导机制、及资产价格传导机制。最后，结合我国的实际经济数据，利用面板数据模型，就上述三个机制分别进行实证研究，实证结果验证了上述三个传导机制的合理性。本文最终研究结果表明：人民币汇率升值确实会通过对贸易出口、外商直接投资、资产价格的影响最终引发一定程度的产业空心化现象。但是，必须注意到，产业空心化现象真正的根源在于我国出口导向型的经济增长模式。因为无论是人民币汇率的持续升值还是外向型产业空心化现象的出现都是我国长期以来经济增长模式的必然产物。在我国内需不足的情况下，以增加出口来拉动GDP的增长模式曾使我国经济维持了近10年的高速增长，同时也培育了大量的外向型企业。但是，任何经济增长模式均存在发展规律和生命周期，不可能维持经济永远持续增长。随着国际收支顺差的持续扩大，长期被低估的人民币汇率积累了巨大的升值压力，而人民币汇率一旦升值，反过来会通过出口、外商直接投资、资产价格等因素影响我国的外向型经济，限制外向型产业的持续快速发展，致使其不可避免的逐渐出现空心化现象。由于人民币汇率因素属于外部环境，人民币汇率升值趋势具有客观性，因此不能只寄希望于继续维持出口导向型经济的增长模式来实现经济的高速增长，必须立足于让那些面临空心化或已经开始空心化的产业逐渐转型，同时引导那些难以为继的外向型企业转制，转变经济增长模式：实现从出口拉动型经济向内需拉动型经济的战略转型，调整产业结构和产品结构，才能实现我国经济的稳定增长和健康发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years， especially since the financial crisis， the pressure ofexport-oriented industry in China increased sharply. On the one hand，the overseasdemands as well as the appreciation of RMB have negative effect on the internal andexternal financial ability of export-oriented enterprises. Export products from Chinaare at the low end of the international industrial chain. The pricing power is weak sothat it is difficult to absorb the increasing cost by raising prices. Therefore thedeclining profits and even serious losses result in a decrease of the internal financing.At the same time，the appreciation of RMB and other factors lead to the outflow offoreign investments，which make the situation worse. On the other hand，more andmore export-oriented enterprises intend to put their money into the real estate marketand capital market，such as the stock market and usury market. The result is that GDPgrowth，investment and employment decline in parts of the export-oriented areas inChina and parts of export-oriented industries. If it keeps going on like this，China willface the hollowing-out crisis that happened in Japan and the United States. Based onthe perspective of RMB appreciation， this paper will analyze the causes ofexport-oriented industrial hollowing out since China’s economic development is ofimportant theoretical and realistic significance.This paper draws the conclusion from the related literature at home and abroad inthe perspective of the definition of industrial hollowing out，its causes，hazards，metrics，such as numerical analysis. And it demonstrates the point from the followingaspects:First of all，it defines the research object of this paper. After defining the researchof export-oriented industry， we choose nine export-oriented regions from allprovinces， municipalities and autonomous regions in China， and sevenexport-oriented industries from all of manufacturing industry as the specimen in orderto make the study more specific and clear. Then we use six quantitative indicators andtake the first index as an example to show the specific meaning of index trendsthrough mathematical method (see the appendix A-G).On this basis，by combiningwith our country specific economic data，we calculate the hollowing out index of thenine export-oriented areas and the seven export-oriented industry from2000to2011calendar year，analyzes the trends of12years. In addition，in order to investigatedifferent size and different types of enterprises in different areas and the degree ofexport-oriented industry hollowing out，we separately calculated the hollowing out ofindex of large and medium-sized enterprises，small micro enterprises and state-ownedenterprises， private enterprises and foreign enterprises in accordance with theenterprise scale and type for12years. Then we summarize the six indexes and got thejudgment of different export-oriented regional export-oriented industry and differentsize，different types of enterprise hollowing out degree and the trendSecondly，combined with the definition of export-oriented industry，this paperputs forward factors causing export-oriented industrial hollowing out that nevermentioned before，such as foreign trade growth，foreign direct investment growth， real estate prices，the stock index fluctuation，the increased cost of production. Aftertheoretically analysis，we draw the conclusion that when foreign-oriented exports andforeign direct investment rise slowly，real estate and other asset prices increases andcost of production increase，the export-oriented industry’s output，profit，investmentand employment growth will decrease，and strengthen the effect of hollowing out.Then we use the panel data model to study the factors in seven of nine export-orientedareas and export-oriented industry.the empirical results support previous theoreticalanalysis.Most factors that caused the export-oriented industrial hollowing out are affectedby the RMB rate changes，and China is under the expectation of the RMB exchangerate appreciation. Therefore this article in the exchange rate changes on trade exports，foreign direct investment，the real estate market prices and the stock market influencethe basic theory and related research results，from the perspective of theory and themathematical model with the appreciation of the RMB was discussed respectivelyexport-oriented foreign trade influence mechanism of regional and industry hollowingout，foreign direct investment effect mechanism，and the effects of asset pricemechanism. Finally，we use the economic data and the panel data model to prove theabove-mentioned three mechanisms respectively through empirical study. It turns outthat empirical results validate the rationality of the mechanism of these three effects.In this paper，the results show that RMB appreciation will affect industrialhollowing out by trade exports，foreign direct investment and asset prices. However，it must be noted that the real cause of industrial hollowing out is the mode ofexport-oriented economy. Because the RMB exchange rate continued to rise and theemergence of the phenomenon of export-oriented industrial hollowing out is theinevitable outcome of the economic growth mode for a long time in China. Under thesituation of insufficient domestic demand，in order to increase exports to boost GDPgrowth model has lasted for nearly a decade of rapid growth of our country economy，but also cultivate a large number of export-oriented enterprises. But，with thecontinuous expansion of international payments surplus，has long been undervaluedRMB accumulated huge upward pressure，and once the appreciation of RMBexchange rate，which in turn will through exports，foreign direct investment，assetprices and other factors affecting China’s export-oriented economy，restrict thesustained and rapid development of export-oriented industries， leading to theinevitable phenomenon of hollowing out gradually.We cannot prevent the RMB exchange rate appreciation and hope to realize therapid growth of economy by restoring export. It is necessary for us to finish industrytransition gradually，and guide the unsustainable export-oriented enterprises. We needto realize the conversion of fundamentally change the economic growth mode from anexport-led economy to a domestic demand-led economy and adjust the industrialstructure and product structure to make China powerful in world economy.更多还原