中国居民消费行为空间差异影响因素的实证研究

【作者】 鱼鸿杰；

【导师】 葛伟民；

【作者基本信息】 上海社会科学院 ， 产业经济学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 中国的GDP总量经历了近十年的两位数高速增长之后,近几年由于受外部和自身经济环境变化的影响,我国的经济虽然保持了8%左右的增速,但经济下行压力依然很大。在国民经济发展的初期投资必然成为了经济发展的主要推动力,但长期以来重投资轻消费政策也为经济的不稳定埋下了隐患。与美国、德国等发达国家相比,我国居民消费率明显偏低,当然造成消费率偏低的原因是错综复杂的,不能以单一的因素来解释。从统计数据来看,我国居民消费率呈逐年下降趋势且维持在40%左右的水平,这表明我国居民消费还有很大释放和增长空间。我国东、中、西三大经济地区在自然禀赋、文化习俗等方面都有差异,同时在经济发展的过程中采用的战略各有不同,最终导致东部地区在居民收入、要素分配以及制度建设上都比较完善,中西部地区则有一定的差距。笔者在研究了大量地区及消费影响因素的基础上,以扩内需为出发点,期望从流动性约束、人口老龄化、社会保障制度、地区经济结构等四个角度,以东、中、西地区为截面数据,分析地区间消费差异的影响因素。笔者在研究过程中力图对地区消费影响因素做到全面、详细的分析,最后研究了消费行为差异对经济的影响,是对本文结论的进一步补充。本文的研究结论表明东部地区具有更多的消费能力和需求,流动性约束对消费的影响会高于中西部地区；人口老龄化因素是当前面临的新问题,其对消费的影响具有不确定性,当前我国处于老龄化初级阶段,对东中部的消费具有一定抑制作用,对西部则不明显。究其原因目前西部老龄化程度要低于东中地区；社保制度的建设依赖于经济发展,反过来社保的完善又会影响消费从而影响经济,社会保障的不同支出项目对于地区消费的影响也有差异,社会保险支出对东部城镇地区居民消费的影响更大,中部其次,西部最低。社会抚恤和福利支出对西部城镇居民影响最大,东部其次,而中部影响不大；地区经济结构是各地区长期经济发展方式积累的结果,第三产业对东部地区的消费具有最明显的促进作用,中西地区的经济增长,消费驱动相对更多的依赖于第一产业的发展,而第三产业也成为重要的推动因素。本文从多角度对地区消费影响因素的实证分析,可以为地区在制定消费刺激政策时,充分考虑其对消费的因素程度,更为合理的分配各种要素资源,引导更多消费,为经济发展提供更强劲的动力。更多还原

【Abstract】 After the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of China saw high-speed growth of two digits in nearly a decade, however, under the influence of changes of external and domestic economic environments, even though the economy of China sustains a growth rate of about8%, the pressure of economic downturn is still large. Investment inevitably becomes the main impetus for economic development in the initial stage of national economic development, but for a long time, the policy which lays emphasis on investment and neglects consumption brings a hidden risk of instability of economy. Compared with developed countries such as America and Germany, the household consumption rate of China is obviously lower. Certainly, the reasons for the lower consumption rate are complex and cannot be explained by a single factor. Judging by statistical data, the household consumption rate of China declines year by year and maintains at level about40%, which shows that the household consumption of China has large release and growth space.Due to the facts that the east economic region, the middle economic region and the west economic region are different in aspects of natural endowments, cultural customs and the like and meanwhile vary in adopted strategies during economic development, finally the east region is relatively good regarding to resident income, factor distribution and system construction while the middle region and the west region fall behind. On the basis of studying large numbers of regions and influencing factors of consumption, the author of the thesis expects to analyze influencing factors of consumption difference among regions from four perspectives of liquidity constraints, aging of population, social security systems and regional economic structures and with the east region, the middle region and the west region as cross-sectional data. Besides, the author of the thesis tries to make a complete and detailed analysis of the influencing factors of regional consumption and finally studies the influences of consumer behavior difference on the economy to further supplement the conclusion of the thesis. Research conclusions of the thesis show that the east region has a better consumption capability and more demands and that the influences of liquidity constraints on the consumption of the east region is larger than those of the middle region and the west region; the factor of aging of population is a new problem encountered at present and has an uncertain influence on consumption, and the fact that China is in the primary stage of population aging has certain inhibitory effects on the consumption of the east region and the middle region but has little effects on the west region since the population aging degree of the west region is lower than that of the middle region and the east region; the construction of a social security system depends on economic development, in turn, the improvement on the social security system can exert an influence on consumption and further influence the economy, influences of different items of expenditure of social security on regional consumption also vary, social security expenditure has the largest influence on urban residents of the west region, which is followed by the west region, while the middle region is barely affected by the social security expenditure; the regional economic structures are accumulated results of long-term economic development modes of every region, tertiary industry promotes the consumption of the east region most obviously, relatively speaking, the economic growth and consuming power of the middle region and the west region rely on the development of the primary industry more, however, the tertiary industry also becomes an important push factor. The thesis demonstrates and analyzes the influencing factors of the regional consumption from many perspectives, and thus when a consumption stimulation policy is made for a region, the influencing degree of the policy on the consumption can be fully taken into consideration, various factor resources can be distributed more reasonably, and more consumption can be guided so as to provide a more powerful power for economic development.更多还原