【作者】 彭岩富；

【导师】 刘尚希；

【作者基本信息】 财政部财政科学研究所 ， 财政学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,我国人口流动呈现出错综复杂的局面。社会主义市场经济制度的逐步建立和完善,劳动力成为重要的生产要素,经济因素逐步成为人口流动的主要驱动因素。除了受经济因素驱动的人口流动外,由于大型水电工程、高速公路等基础设施建设引致的非自愿人口流动规模庞大,由于局部地区生态环境恶化导致的生态人口流动压力也以日剧增。本文从厘清流动人口的概念开始,回顾了人口流动理论的发展脉络,回答了我国流动人口的规律、机制,并对人口流动的过程进行了分析。在此基础上按驱动流动人口的因素把流动人口分为市场驱动的流动人口,工程非自愿人口流动及生态人口流动。并研究了人口流动对区域经济的影响。最后分别正对市场驱动的人口流动和非自愿人口流动提出了相应的公共服务供给对策。人口流动的根源是什么?驱使人口流动的动力是什么?人口流动并不是完全无序,也不是单纯由环境或者政策的压力所驱使,而是遵循一定的经济规律。人口流入地的拉力和人口流出地的推力共同作用决定了人口流动,这就是著名的“推拉理论”。“推拉理论”从“推”和“拉”两种角度对人口流动这一社会现象进行了揭示。人口流动对整个社会经济会产生一系列的宏观经济效应,比如：经济增长效应、通货膨胀效应、收入效应与替代效应、人口压力效应等。改革开放以来,市场经济逐步取代了原来的计划经济,市场成为资源配置的基本手段,劳动力商品化成了可能,这为劳动力这一要素追逐与资本、技术和市场的最佳配置,寻求劳动报酬最大化奠定了基础。市场经济建立于完善、社会管理制度的变革、传统农业社会向工业经济的转变以及民营经济的崛起成为我国市场驱动人口的流动大的宏观背景。同历史上我国人口流动情况相比,现阶段我国人口迁移进程发生了显著地变化。主要体现在：农村非户籍迁移人口成为主流,农村人口为了追逐经济利益跨区域就业规模日益庞大；人口迁移的城乡模式发生了变化,在人口从农村向城镇迁移的大趋势下,部分农民工回流、回乡创业的趋势也比较明显；人口流动的区域模式也在逐步变化,珠三角对流动人口的吸纳能力逐步让位于长三角,以此同时随着西部大开发战略、中部崛起战略等区域发展战略的实施,东、西部人口流出的强度也在逐渐减弱。由于我国工程非自愿人口流动理论研究的滞后及我国土地制度的不完善,我国工程非自愿人口流动贫困性风险比较突出。工程人口流动主要导致物质损失的风险、就业方式转变的风险、失去享有公共资源的风险三类风险。同时由于我国人口流动补偿制度的不完善,进一步加剧了我国工程人口流动的贫困风险,成为工程人口流动二次人口流动或者返乡的一个重要因素。我国现有的工程人口流动的补偿制度主要由法律、法规和地方性规章组成。系统性和权威性不强,碎片化严重,在执行过程中“弹性”较大。主要体现在征地补偿标准制定不合理,标准低,并且弹性大,在实际操作过程中政府的自由裁量权大；我国土地产权制定的约束,在我国土地属于国家和集体所有,农民只有使用权而没有所有权,这在人口流动补偿的实践过程中,对如何保护人口流动的土地权益设置了障碍；人口流动安置方式固化,没有充分考虑到我国正处于快速市场化及快速城镇化这一国情,过分注重以土安置模式,从而造成人口流动发展空间受限,造成二次人口流动；忽视人口流动社会资本的损失,在人口流动补偿过程中,没有考虑对人口流动的社会资本的补偿。随着经济社会的发展,我国生态人口流动的规模和压力也日益增大。在实现经济、社会、生态和谐发展的同时,如何引导和保护好生态人口流动成为当今社会的热点问题。不同于工程非自愿人口流动,生态人口流动的补偿主体不明确、受益对象也比较模糊,这导致我国生态人口流动补偿制度缺陷不少。主要体现在生态人口流动补偿原则不明确、补偿标准低、补偿期限短、补偿程序不规范以及生态人口流动缺少行政救济途径等。为了完善我国流动人口公共政策,引导和促进人口有序合理流动,需要我们以提供动态的公共服务、实现流动人口流动公共服务均等化,切实解决人口流动所带来的负面影响,提高劳动力资源同其他生产要素的有效组合,促进区域经济协调发展。具体而言有以下几条政策；(1)优化基本公共服务,通过明确各级政府职责,优化公共财政政策,解决流动人口贫困等因人口流动产生的负面影响(2)优化财政支出结构,加大支出力度,加强监督监管进一步完善流动人口社会保障制度,建立城乡基本统一的社会保障网络。(3)针对非自愿人口流动所带来的公共福利损失及人口流动聚居地公共服务缺失等问题,要进一步明确在非自愿人口流动过程中中央政府和地方各级政府的事权划分,明确权责。在明确政府提供公共服务的主导地位的前提下,进一步加强和培育非政府组织的力量,完善市场提供公共服务的机制。通过法治化的政府行为、层级化的功能供给、契约化的合作机制、一体化的服务体系建设,来缓解当前我国费自愿人口流动公共服务供给过程中的公共产品供给能力不足、公共服务质量不高、公共资源配置不均等现实问题。推动经济、社会和谐健康发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the adoption of reform and opening-up policy, population flow in China presents a complex situation. The system of socialist market economy is established and gradually improved. Labor force has become an important factor of production, and the economic factors have gradually become the main driver of population movements. In addition to population movements driven by economic factors, involuntary migration caused by large-scale infrastructure constructions such as large hydropower projects, highway infrastructure are very huge, due to local ecological environment deterioration resulting in ecological migration pressures are increasing. This thesis clarifies the concept of population mobility, reviews the development of the theory of population mobility, responds to China’s floating population regularity and mechanisms, analyses the migration process. On this basis, floating population is categorized into market-driven migration engineering involuntary migrants and ecological migration. And the thesis also studies the movements of population’s impact on the regional economy. Finally the public service strategies are given corresponding to the two kinds of population movement.What are the root causes of population movements? What are the forces that make the population leave his hometown for unfamiliar palaces? Population movement is not completely disordered, it is not driven solely by environmental or policy pressures, it follows a law of economics. The tensile force of inflowing area and the thrust force of out-flowing area determine the movements of population. This is the famous "push-pull" theory."Push and pull" theory from "push" and "pull" from two angles of the population movement as a social phenomenon has been revealed. Migration produces a series of macroeconomic effects to the whole society, such as the effects of economic growth, inflation, income effect and substitution effect, effect of population pressure.Since the adoption of reform and opening-up policy, market economy gradually replaced the original planned economy. The market becomes the basic means for the allocation of resources, and labor commercialization is possible. It makes it possible for the labor to chase after capital, technology and market and form the optimal combinations. In this way the labor maximizes its reward. The establishment and improvement of the social market economy, the change of society management system, and the change of traditional agricultural society to an industrial economy and the rise of private economy become the macroscopic background of the market-driven movement of population. Compared with the history of the movement of population in China, the current movement of population has changed significantly. The main features are:the movement of rural non-native residents becomes the mainstream of migration; In pursuit of economic interests, the number of across-regional employment of the rural population increases greatly; Regional models of population mobility also gradually changes, the Pearl River Delta absorption capacity to the floating population gradually give way to the Yangtze River Delta; At the same time,as implementation of the western development strategy and the rising strategy of central China, the strength of the eastern and western population outflow is waning.Because of the backwardness of research in involuntary immigration theory and faultiness of our country land system, our country engineering involuntary immigrant poverty risk sticks out. Engineering migration mainly leads to the risk of material damage, the risk of changing patterns of employment, the risk of losing access to public resources. At the same time the imperfect compensation system in our country further exacerbates the poverty risk of project immigrants, which results in secondary migration or return migration of immigrants. Our country existing project resettlement compensation system is mainly composed of laws, regulations and local rules. Systematicness and authority is not strong. The fragmentation is serious, mainly reflects in the unreasonable land compensation standards and flexibility. The constraints of Land property rights in our country make it difficult to protect the legal rights of the project resettlement in our country. The solidification of mode of resident relocation, without fully considering the marketization of our country and the rapid urbanization in our country, placed too much importance to land resettlement, resulting in immigration development space is limited, which leads to secondary migration; Neglecting the loss of social capital of immigrants, in the process of compensation, without consideration of compensation to the social capital of immigrants.With the development of society and economy, the scale of ecological migration in our country and the pressure is also growing. In order to achieve the harmonious development of economy, society and ecology at the same time, how to guide and protect the ecological migrants becomes a hot issue in today’s society. It is different from the projection of involuntary immigrants, the subject of ecological immigration compensation is not clear, the beneficiaries is ambiguous, which leads to poor ecological compensation system in China. Ambiguous compensation principle, low compensation standard, short-period compensation, the irregular procedure of compensation, and the lack of administrative relief way are the main features of our ecological migration compensation system.In order to improve the public policy of the floating population in our country, to guide and promote the rational flow of the population, we need to make the public service dynamic, to make the public service to the floating population equalized. Recently we should solve the negative effects brought by the population flow, and try our best to improve the labor resources effective combination with other factors of production, to promote the coordinated development of different region of our country. In particular, the following several policies are suggested;(1) To optimize the basic public services through the clear responsibility at all levels of government; To optimize the public fiscal policy, to solve the poverty of the floating population, such as the negative effect because of the population flow.(2) the optimization of fiscal expenditure structure, increase the intensity of spending, strengthening supervision and regulation in further perfecting the system of social security of the floating population, to establish a basic unified urban and rural social security network.(3)in order to solve the problems such as the welfare loss of involuntary immigrants and the deficiency of public service in the immigrant resettlement place, the responsibilities among the central government and the different level local government should be clarified. Promote harmony development of economy and society.更多还原