【作者】 关恒；

【导师】 金兆怀；

【作者基本信息】 东北师范大学 ， 区域经济学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 在2008年金融危机和稍后欧洲爆发主权债务危机过程中，美国多次用“量化宽松”的货币政策增发货币，来刺激低迷的经济，缓解双赤字压力，弥补低增长和失业高企的困境。而美元的波动也为其它主要贸易国的货币稳定和贸易结算以及外汇储备带来了持续的冲击。回顾历史，正二战后美国综合国力迅猛发展，成就了美元的霸权地位，以美元为中心的单极货币体系得以成形。但同时单极货币体系带来的全球经济、贸易、消费、储蓄的失衡是直接导致2008年全球经济动荡的深层原因之一。次贷危机引发的金融危机爆发和蔓延对国际货币市场形成巨大冲击，也将对国际货币体系产生深远影响。而几乎同时，欧洲面临主权债务危机的掣肘，除英国（未纳入欧元体系）之外的欧洲主要经济体先后受到不同程度的影响，由于经济增长不一致所引发的对欧洲统一货币政策的肢解已危及欧元的稳定性，甚至存在性。进而引发欧盟经济体债务违约的风险，欧元因此在短期内难以胜任替代美元成为全球结算货币和储备资产的重任。基于多种因素考虑，在未来相当长一段时间内，美元作为全球储备“硬通货”的地位仍难以被撼动，美元仍将在国际货币体系中处于主导地位，短期内国际货币体系的单极格局依然难以改变。单极货币体系具有权利义务不对称、利己性、缺乏约束制衡机制等内在缺陷，从单极向多极货币体系的演进和改革必然是曲折而漫长的过程。此次全球金融危机使得美国和欧盟经济体的消费急剧下降、流动性枯竭、大量企业倒闭、失业人数增加。美元和欧元受到不同程度的打击，这为人民币国际化，成为多极货币的一极奠定了现实基础。当前人民币在全球范围内有限的交易量和储藏量，与中国的贸易大国地位并不相称，使得渐进开放的中国面临诸多掣肘和制约。由此凸显人民币国际化的重要性和必要性。同时，当前中国处于高速经济增长向次高速经济增长过渡的阶段，即从年均经济增长8%-9%向8%-7%演变的过程。经济结构调整、增长方式转变、节能减排、平衡和协调区域经济增长、保障民生、拓展金融市场、加强金融监管和改革力度，都是当前中国经济急需解决的根本问题。而人民币国际化对于上述政策目标无疑即具有推动作用又具有一定的风险扰动作用。如何权衡利弊，特别是在当前中国面临区域经济增长调整、加速中西部发展优化东部地区产业结构、缩小工业在不同省份之间的差距、加速第三产业发展的大背景下，推动人民币国际化无疑具有了充分的现实意义。既要有利于中国出口贸易的稳步发展，又要呼应中国经济改革，深化结构调整力度，这是摆在学者、专家和政策制定者面前最为紧迫和关键的问题。本文认为，从单极到多元是国际货币改革的基本方向，人民币国际化和区域化是中国经济快速发展和实现中国梦必然的战略选择。中国应抓住机遇，趋利避害，积极推动人民币国际区域化进程。更多还原

【Abstract】 For a long time, the hegemony of the dollar makes it convenient to share the huge globalreserve currency seigniorage; in the meanwhile, the long-term depreciation of the dollarmakes it plunder a huge amount of inflation tax. During the financial crisis and the Europeansovereign crisis later on, the United States issuing currency with “quantitative easing”monetary policy to stimulate the sluggish economy, ease the pressure on the twin deficits,bridge the plight of low growth and high unemployment. The fluctuation of the dollarcontinues impact monetary stability trade settlement and foreign exchange reserves of othermajor trading countries.Looking back of history, the rapid development for comprehensive national strength ofU.S. economy, finance, policy and military makes it achieving the dollar’s hegemony andforming a U.S. dollar-central single monetary system. But the imbalance of global economy,trade, and saving which brings by the unipolar monetary system is one of the underlyingcauses. The outbreak and spread of the financial crisis which triggered by the subprime crisisform a huge impact on the international currency market also will have a profound impact onthe international monetary system. So U.S. dollar as the most important international reservecurrency would be weaken, U.S. dollar as the dollar hegemony would be challenged. Almostat the same time, Europe faces the constraints of the sovereign debt crisis, except for England(not included in the major European economies outside the euro system). Triggering a debtdefault risk of the EU economies, the euro failed to accomplish the important task to replacethe dollar as the global settlement of monetary and reserve assets in the short term. Based on avariety of factors to consider in the future for a long period of time, the U.S. dollar as globalreserve status of the "hard currency" is still difficult to shake, the dollar will remain adominant position in the international monetary system, in the short term, single-stage patternof international monetary system still difficult to change.The single monetary system has inherent defects about self-serving, lack of constraintchecks and balances, asymmetry of rights and obligations, the moving process fromsingle-stage to the evolution and reform of the monetary system must be tortuous andprotracted. This global financial crisis makes the consumption decline, liquidity dried up,unemployment increase of U.S. and EU. The dollar and the euro are subject to different blowwhich provide a foundation for the internationalization of the RMB, to become one ofmulti-level currency in reality. The limited RMB trading volume and reserves worldwidecurrently is not commensurate with China’s largest trading nation status; also make thegradual opening up of China faces many constraints and constraints. Thus the importance andnecessity of the internationalization of the RMB is highlights. The same time, China is in theevolution process of moving from the rapid economic growth to a sub-high-speed economicgrowth over-the stage, by decline the average annual economic growth of8%-9%to8%-7%.Restructuring Economic, Changing growth pattern, conservating energy, balancing andcoordination of regional economic growth, safeguarding people’s livelihood, expanding financial markets, strengthen financial regulation and reform, are China’s current economicurgent need to address the fundamental problem. The internationalization of the RMB for theabove policy objective is no doubt that plays a role in promoting the risk of disturbance. Howto weigh the pros and cons, especially in the context of China is currently faced with theadjustment of regional economic growth, accelerate the development of the central optimizethe eastern part of the industrial structure, to narrow the gap between industries in differentprovinces, to accelerate the development of tertiary industry, to promote theinternationalization of the RMB is undoubtedly with the full practical significance. The mosturgent and critical issue for academics, experts and policy makers is that it should bebeneficial to the steady development of China’s export trade, and echoes China’s economicreforms, deepen structural readjustment. This paper argues that the basic direction of theinternational monetary reform is from the single-stage to multi-internationalization of theRMB and financial development of China’s rapid economic development and the Rise ofGreat Powers inevitable strategic choice. China should seize the opportunity, while avoidingdisadvantages and actively promote the process of internationalization of the RMB.更多还原