【作者】 王永超；

【导师】 王士君；

【作者基本信息】 东北师范大学 ， 城市与区域规划， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 本篇论文的研究视角定位于快速城市化过程中的土地资源效应及土地资源利用风险的防控。探讨在目前我国快速城市化的发展背景下，城市土地资源效应的产生、评估及变化状况，进而通过研究城市化过程中的土地资源利用风险防控，实现城市化发展中的土地资源优化配置。论文从城市化与资源环境的一般关系研究入手，从资源环境这一总体理论框架下形成城市化的土地资源效应概念和理论体系，进而构建城市化的土地资源效应的评估方法体系。之后从风险学的角度，利用风险评估原理构建风险评估体系，进而探讨城市化过程中土地资源利用的风险防控机制。最后以辽宁沿海经济带为研究案例，对论文中所提出的城市化的土地资源效应评估方法和风险评估方法进行实证研究，从而对理论和方法进行有效检验，并且以最终的研究结果为参考，提出辽宁沿海经济带城市化与土地资源优化配置的模式，并进而指导辽宁沿海经济带各城市空间发展。纵观整篇论文，以目前我国的两大关注热点——城市化和土地资源为研究内容，从以往传统理论总结和发展中，形成对城市化的土地资源效应评估的方法体系，从而对城市化发展理论和资源学理论进行深化。具体而言，本篇论文的主要研究内容如下：第一章主要对研究的背景和选题的依据进行论述，寻找研究的价值与意义。重点从国内外相关研究综述中，寻找论文研究的理论依据，通过国内外最新研究进展的总结，提出本文的研究框架、研究目标、研究重点和研究思路，建立论文自身的研究方法，为安排和实现论文的系统研究做铺垫。第二章是以城市化发展与整体资源环境的关系研究为主体。探讨城市化与资源环境所具有的一般关系类型，对城市化与资源环境的关系进行总体定位。在这其中重点关注城市化与资源环境两者之间的相互作用机制的构成内容，包括相互作用的方式、规律，从中发掘出城市化对资源环境在总量、质量和系统结构三个方面的巨大的影响，从而提出城市化对资源环境效应的影响机理。最后，将城市化作为一种时间变量来考虑城市化进程中的资源环境问题，探寻在城市化进程中资源环境问题的发生和演变过程及造成问题的机理。总体来讲，通过这一章节的研究，对城市化与整体资源环境具有总体把握，构成下一步具体研究城市化与土地资源的理论基础。第三章进入到论文核心理论的研究，将内容具体到城市化的土地资源效应的研究中。详细研究城市化与土地资源的相互变化情况，从要素构成和概念内涵两个方面创建城市化的土地资源效应概念体系，并提出城市化的土地资源正负效应的表现形式、表现特征和转化规律的理论，研究中认为城市化的土地资源效应的相对性、模糊性和变动性的特征是导致正负效应之间转化和正负效应内部高低效转化的基础原因。城市产业升级和空间再造、城市空间扩张和政府土地财政是造成城市化的土地资源效应形成和转变的机理，并对机理的各类具体影响方面进行深入研究。总体上通过对城市化的土地资源效应的概念内涵、正负效应转化原理和效应形成机理的研究，构建出整个城市化的土地资源效应理论体系，构成文章的核心理论。第四章具体到城市化过程中的土地资源利用风险及防空机制研究。从风险学的视角，构建城市化的土地资源利用风险理论体系、方法体系和防控机制。首先研究城市化的土地资源利用风险产生的原因即风险源的构成，之后从土地资源利用风险对城市化发展的影响和城市化进程中土地资源利用风险的演变两个方面建立起整个城市化的土地资源利用风险研究理论体系。借鉴管理学和生态学中关于风险评估的常用方法，从评估原则、评估要素和评估方法三个方面建立起城市化的土地资源利用风险评估方法体系。最后，通过风险预警机制、风险规避机制和城市化与土地资源协调机制三个方面建立整个城市化的土地资源利用风险防控机制。通过理论和方法两个体系的建立以及风险防控机制的提出为文章最后案例地区的风险评估及预警防控奠定基础。第五章以辽宁沿海经济带为研究案例，以前文提出的城市化的土地资源效应为理论基础，借鉴国内外相关标准，构建城市化发展指数和城市化的土地资源效应评估指标体系。通过对2002-2011的面板数据的计算得出辽宁沿海经济带城市化的土地资源效应值，进而利用ArcGIS自然断裂法，得出辽宁沿海经济带城市化的土地资源效应空间分布图，从总量数值和空间分布两方面得出辽宁沿海经济带城市化的土地资源效应特征。之后，借鉴传统的生态学风险评估方法，构建基于危险度、易损性和损失度三个维度的城市化的土地资源利用风险评估方法体系，以辽宁沿海经济带2002-2011年数据为基础数据，采用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型方法，对未来9年（2012-2020年）数据进行预测，从而形成2002-2020辽宁沿海经济带面板数据。并利用风险评估方法计算得出辽宁沿海经济带6城市土地资源利用风险历史变化与趋势预测结果，并基于风险的现状特征与趋势预测，提出辽宁沿海经济带风险预警与管控对策，为未来辽宁沿海经济带的城市化发展战略与土地资源优化利用提供决策支持。最后，以系统论中的协调发展理论为支撑，通过改造协调度模型，求解模型中的一元三次方程在第一象限的最大值，从而得出适应于现状城市化发展水平的土地资源效应最优值和协调度最大值，以土地资源效应最优值为标准，在外部条件假设与方法简化原则之下，得出与自身权重相适应的土地资源效应达到最优值时所体现的土地资源利用状态，主要包括人均建设用地、人均耕地、人均居住用地、人均公共绿地四大类土地最优状态值的得出。并通过四类土地的最优状态值与现状值的对比提炼出高能模式、高效模式和提升模式三种辽宁沿海经济带城市化与土地资源最优配置模式，为未来辽宁沿海经济带以及我国其它发展水平相当地区城市化发展中的土地资源利用结构调整提供借鉴。更多还原

【Abstract】 Mainly research perspective of this doctoral dissertation is effects of land resource-s and prevention of land utilization risk in the process of rapid urbanization. Mainly dis-cusses the produce, assessment and the changing condition of city land resource effect i-n the background of rapid urbanization in China,. Further study on prevention risk ofland utilizatio in the process of urbanization, in order to achieve the goals of the opti-mal allocation of land resources. This dissertation starts from the relationship betweenurbanization and resources and environment. It form the concept and theory system ofurbanization land resource effect in the general theoretical framework of resource andenvironment,and structure the assessment of urbanization land resources effects. Fromthe risk perspective, using ecological risk assessmentprinciples to construct risk assessme-nt system, and then discuss the risk control mechanism of land use in the process of ur-banization. Finally, taking Liaoning coastal economic zone as a case study, empirical re-search on the assessment method of urbanization land resources effects and land use r-isk that proposed in this dissertation, in order to effectively test of the theory and met-hod.And putting forward three modes ofurbanization and theoptimal allocation of landresources By reference to the final results of Liaoning coastal economic zone.Through t-he whole dissertatio,taking two big present concern in China-urbanization and land res-ources as research content. From the traditional theoretical summary and development, fo-rming method system of evaluation on urbanization land resources effects,that is thedeepening of urbanization development theory and resource theory. Specifically, the main-content of this paper is as follows:(1)The first chapter is mainly on the research background and selected topic basis,tofind the value and significance of the research.Focus on domestic and foreign related r-esearch to find the theoretical foundation for the research. The latest research at homeand abroad are summarized to put forward the framework of this study, research object-ives,research focus and research ideas,and research approach of the dissertation itself isestablished to prepare for this theory papers based on those formation and developme-nt of related features.(2) The second chapter is mainly to study the relationship between urbanization pr-ocess and the overall environmental resources to be as the main content. There was an i--ntense focus on the interaction mechanism between urbanization and resources environme-nt,including the mode of interaction and rules, disintering from which to find the infl-uence on resources and environment in quantity, quality and structure of the system th-ree aspects. In order to put forward the theory of influence mechanism about urbaniza-tion and effect of resources and environment. Finally, the urbanization as a kind of ti-me variable to considering the resource and environmental problems in the process of u-rbanization. Generally speaking, through the study of this chapter,it has a overall grasp-of the relationship between the city and the overall resourceenvironment, On the basis ofthe relationship to research the next content.(3) The third chapter to study the core theories of the paper, that study the effectsof land resources in the city. It go over the changes of each other with urbanization an- d land resources,and create the concept system of urbanization land resourcesa effect intwo aspects from the elements and the connotation of the concept. It put forward the t-heory of positive and negative effects of urbanization land resources about the forms, fe-atures and transformation. The research suggest that the relativity, fuzziness and mobilit-y of urbanization land resources effects leads to the transformation of positive and n-egative effects and high to low efficiency internal conversion positive and negative eff-ects. City industrial upgrading and reconstruction of space, city space expansion andgove-rnment land finance is caused the urbanization land resources effects and the transfor-mation. On the whole, through the research on the concept of urbanization land resourc-es effect of positive and negative including its transformation principle and effect mechani-sm to constitute the core theory of the dissertation.(4) The fourth chapter studies on the land resources utilization. From a risk perspe-ctive, constructing theorical system,method system andcontrol mechanism of urbanizatio-n land resources utilization by risk theory system.Firstly,study on risk source of urbanizat-ion land resources utilization. Secondly,To establish the theoretical system of the whol-e urbanization land resources risk From the two aspects of land utilization risk use effe-cts on urbanization development and the evolution of land utilizaion risk in the proc-e-ss of urbanization.Profits from ecology and management methods of risk assessment res-earch,to establish risk assessment method system of the urbanization land resources fromthree aspects about the evaluation principles, evaluation factors and evaluation methods.Finally, through the three aspects of risk early warning mechanism, the mechanism of r-isk aversion and the city and the coordination mechanism of land resource to establishthe whole urbanization land utilization risk control mechanism. Through the two systemabout the theory and method but also risk prevention mechanism to lay the foundationfor risk assessment and early warning and control in the case area study.(5) In the fifth chapter, the Liaoning coastal economic zone as a case study, wit-h the urbanization land resources effec and domestic and overseas standardst as the theor-etical basis, building evaluation index system of urbanization development index and ur-banization land resource effect. Through the calculation of the2002-2011panel data toobtain the effects value of Liaoning coastal economic zone. Then use the ArcGIS natu-ral breaks, to rendering effects spatial distribution map of Liaoning coastal economic zo-ne. From the two aspects of numerical quantity and spatial distribution obtaining the c-haracteristics of land resources effects in Liaoning coastal economic zone. Profits fr-om the traditional evaluation methods of ecology risk, construct risk assessment system,including degree of risk, vulnerability and loss of land resources three dimensions. TakingLiaoning coastal economic zone2002-2011data as basic data, using gray prediction G-M (1,1) model to predict the future9years (2012-2020) data,thus forming the2002-2020panel data of the Liaoning coastal economic zone. By using risk assessment method,t-o calculate the historical and future risk index of6cities in Liaoning coastal economi-c zone. Based on the status and trend about risk of Liaoning coastal economic zone,proposed the risk early warning and control countermeasures, and provide decision suppo-rt for the urbanization development strategy and optimal utilization of land resourcesin Liaoning coastal economic zone in the future. According to the system theory,refor-ming the harmonic model. Solving the model equation of one dollar three times in thefirst quadrant of the maximum, Thus obtain the optimal effects value and maximum harmonic value that suitable for urbanization development.The optimal land resource-s effects value were used as evaluation stan-dards.On the assumption and simplified prin-ciple,obtaining the state of land utilization that adapt to its weight When the effects ach-ieve the optimal value,including Construction land per capita, arable land per capita, res-idential land per capita, public green land per capita four categories. And refines threeoptimal patterns of land use that is the high-energy mode, effective mode for the Liaoni-ng coastal economic zone. It provides reference about adjusting the structure of landuse in the process of urbanization for Liaoning coastal economic zone in the future.更多还原