【作者】 于洋；

【导师】 陈才；

【作者基本信息】 东北师范大学 ， 人文地理学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 我国和世界共同面临着气候变暖、能源危机等问题。发展低碳经济成为世界各国的共同追求。我国正处于工业化加速发展阶段，工业经济高速增长带来国内生产总值不断提高的同时也带来了能源的消耗和碳排放的增加，研究我国近些年来二氧化碳排放及其各种驱动因素的空间格局和时间演变规律可以更好地认清我国目前碳排放现状，从而为我国发展低碳经济，不断降低二氧化碳排放量提供参考和借鉴。本论文紧紧围绕这一目标展开了一系列研究工作。论文以数据整理和计算为研究基础，以二氧化碳净排放和各个驱动因素的空间格局为中心，将Tapio脱钩作为连结二氧化碳净排放和各个驱动因素格局的纽带，以趋势走向—成因分析—对策建议为主线，并将现阶段（2005-2012年）作为时间起点，以未来（2013-2030年）做为时间终点。从中国总体、各个区域、各个省市多个视角对中国二氧化碳净排放及其驱动因素的空间格局和脱钩关系进行全方位的研究，以期充分认清现阶段和未来我国二氧化碳净排放趋势，挖掘出现阶段和未来驱动我国二氧化碳净排放的最主要因素，明确各个省市减排潜能和减排责任，为我国发展低碳经济做出贡献。本论文分成以下八章：第一章主要介绍论文的研究目的、研究现状、研究方法及路线。第二章主要阐述论文涉及到的基本概念和可持续发展理论、能源—经济—环境理论、劳动地域分工理论、低碳经济理论和脱钩等理论。第三章首先提出一种基于质能转换的二氧化碳净排放计算方法，该方法计算简单，数据获取容易、结果精确。区别以往学者，论文还充分考虑了不同省市由于技术等差异导致的二氧化碳排放系数的差异性以及森林碳汇对二氧化碳的消除作用。基于该方法，论文从中国总体、六大区域（此分类参照中国国家统计年鉴分类方法）、大陆29个省市（不含新疆和西藏）对二氧化碳净排放量进行了精确计算，考虑到“地理学第一定律”论文又采用全局自相关和局部自相关等分析方法对二氧化碳净排放空间相关特性进行了研究，同时还通过引入重心轨迹分析法、极差和变异系数分析方法对中国总体、六大区域和29个省市二氧化碳净排放重心变化、差异大小等进行了分析。第四章充分考虑了碳汇对二氧化碳净排放的影响，对以往的Kaya模型进行了修正，在此基础上对驱动中国总体、不同区域和省市二氧化碳净排放的能源强度、人均GDP、人口数量、碳排放系数、森林和绿地面积等驱动因素的变化趋势、空间相关特性、差异大小进行了分析。第五章将第三章和第四章计算和分析结果结合，采用Tapio脱钩分析方法对二氧化碳净排放各个驱动因素与二氧化碳净排放之间建立了脱钩关系。区别以往学者仅仅对经济与二氧化碳排放关系的脱钩研究，本文采用Tapio脱钩方法和脱钩弹性指标对二氧化碳净排放所有驱动因素都进行了脱钩研究，这样做的目的是通过比较不同驱动因素的脱钩指标和脱钩状态，找到某一时期影响我国、各个区域、各个省份二氧化碳净排放的最主导驱动因素。第六章采用回归预测分析方法对我国未来（2030年前）二氧化碳净排放量以及各个驱动因素变化趋势、各个驱动因素与二氧化碳净排放的脱钩状态进行了预测分析。不但能对我国未来二氧化碳净排放趋势进行把握，更有利于发掘我国未来影响二氧化碳净排放的最主要驱动因素。论文还创造性地提出了省市间二氧化碳补偿制度，并对补偿主体、补偿客体和补偿标准进行了确定。第七章针对我国总体、各个区域和重点省份减排对策提出了有针对性的建议。论文第八章对整个论文进行了归纳和总结。更多还原

【Abstract】 Today，China and the world are facing the climate warming, energy crisis and other issues.The development of low-carbon economy became the common pursuit of all countries in theworld. China is in a stage of accelerated development of the industrialization， and thehigh-growth industry-based economy has brought the continuously increasing GDP, and at thesame time also brought the increase of carbon emissions. The research of carbon emissionsand its driving factors of spatial pattern and the time evolvement rule can help preferably torecognize the current situation of carbon emissions in China, so as to develop Chineselow-carbon economy, and provide a reference to reduce carbon dioxide emissionscontinuously. This paper launches a series of research work, which is closely aimed at thepaper.The paper is based upon the data compilation and calculation as the foundation of theresearch, the net carbon dioxide emissions and the spatial pattern of each driving factor as thecenter, the Tapio disconnection as the link of the net carbon dioxide emissions and the patternof driving factor, the trend, cause analysis, countermeasures and suggestions as the mainline,the current stage (2005-2012) as the time starting point, and future (2013-2030) as the timeend point. The paper conducts comprehensive study on China’s net carbon dioxide emissionsand its driving factors of spatial pattern and the disconnection from multiple perspectives ofeach province, each region, and all over China. It expects to fully understand the status quoand future trend of net carbon dioxide emissions in China, and find out the most importantarising driving factor of the net carbon dioxide emissions now and in the future, and confirmthe potentialities of emissions reduction and responsibilities of emissions reduction in order tocontribute to the development of low-carbon economy in China.The paper includes the following eight chapters:Chapter1introduces the paper’s research purpose, research status, research methods andresearch route.Chapter2states relevant concepts and theories that are employed in the paper, and thetheories include the sustainable development theory, energy-economy-environment theory,low carbon economy theory, the disconnection theory etc.Chapter3proposes a calculation method, which is based on mass energy transformationto net carbon dioxide emissions, and this calculation method is simple to use, and accordingto the method, data collecting is easy and the result is accurate. Comparing with the previousscholars, this paper also gives full consideration on different provincial differentiations ofcarbon emission coefficient which based on technology differences and elimination of forestcarbon sequestration against carbon dioxide. The paper carries on the precise calculation ofnet carbon dioxide emissions from29provinces and cities (excluding Xinjiang and Tibet), sixregions(this classification with reference to China’s national statistical yearbook classificationmethod), and all over china. In consideration of "the first law of geography”, the paperemploys the global autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation analysis methods to study thefeatures of the spatial correlation to net carbon dioxide emissions, and by introducing thecenter of gravity trajectory analysis method, Xmax-Xmin and variable coefficient analysismethod to analyze net carbon dioxide emissions of the main part changes and the differencesin size of29provinces and cities (excluding Xinjiang and Tibet), six regions, and all over china.Chapter4gives full consideration on the effects of the net carbon sink against carbondioxide emissions, revises the original Kaya model to analyze the change tendency of thedriving factors, spatial correlated characteristics, and differences in size against the energyintensity(it drives net carbon dioxide emissions of all over china, different regions andprovinces and cities), per capita GDP, population quantity, carbon emission coefficient, thesquare meters of forest and green space and so on.Chapter5combines the result of calculation and analysis of Part3and Part4. Thedecoupling relationship between net carbon dioxide emissions and each driving factor isestablished by using Tapio decoupling analysis method. This paper carries through thedecoupling analysis using the Tapio decoupling method and elastic index on all drivingfactors of the net carbon dioxide emissions, and it is distinguished from previous scholarswho only focused on the research between economy and co2emissions. The purpose is to findout the main driving factors that affect net carbon dioxide emissions in a certain period bycomparing the decoupling index of different driving factors and decoupling situation in everyprovince, every region and all over china.Chapter6carries on the predictive analysis on the net carbon dioxide emissions, thechange trends of each driving factor, and the decoupling situation between every drivingfactor and the net emissions of carbon dioxide during the future period before year2020byusing regression forecasting analysis method. It is easy to grasp the future trend of net carbondioxide emissions in China; furthermore it is of benefit to explore the main driving factorwhich will influence net carbon dioxide emissions in the future. The paper also creatively putsforward the "carbon dioxide compensation mechanism” among provinces and cities, anddetermines the "compensation subject","compensation receptors" and " compensationquotas".Chapter7recommends corresponding suggestions on the carbon dioxide emissionreduction countermeasures in allusion to each region, highlighted provinces and all overChina.Chapter8induces and summarizes the entire paper.更多还原