【作者】 齐洪华；

【导师】 刘洪钟；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 世界经济， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 农产品贸易不仅涉及一国的经济利益,而且涉及政治利益,包括国家粮食安全、农村发展和农民收入、国家政局和社会稳定等重大问题,因此各国都需要对农产品贸易实施不同程度的保护。日本是世界上农产品贸易保护水平最高的国家之一,也是农产品贸易保护政治化倾向最为严重的国家,因此研究日本的农产品贸易保护具有典型意义。同时,日本是中国最重要的农产品出口对象国,而且日本耕地少、农业是弱势产业等特点与我国有相似之处。鉴于此,研究日本的农产品贸易保护对于增强我国农产品对日出口的竞争力以及我国农业及农产品贸易政策体系的调整与法律法规的修订都有重要意义。由于农产品贸易保护既有经济原因、也有政治原因,因此研究农产品贸易保护需要以贸易理论的经济学思想为基础,而分析模型则应当从贸易政策决策的政治过程来构建。文章的理论构建部分,主要以贸易保护理论为理论依据,以贸易政策的政治经济学为理论工具,对现存的贸易政策政治经济学中的“利益集团—政府”基本分析模型加以改进,加入WTO多边贸易规则和区域贸易协定两个因素,形成“利益集团—政府—WTO多边贸易规则—区域贸易协定”四维分析模型,为后文的分析形成理论框架。文章的具体分析部分,首先介绍日本农产品贸易保护的经济背景,然后将日本农产品贸易保护政策的演化历程分成三个阶段,对每一阶段农产品贸易保护政策的主要内容、特点、成因进行了介绍。通过对日本一个多世纪以来农产品贸易保护政策变迁的回顾和梳理,可以发现日本农产品贸易保护的总体趋势不断加强,即使是在WTO《农业协议》达成以后,世界农产品贸易自由化趋势初见端倪的情况下,日本的农产品贸易保护程度丝毫没有减弱,只是对保护政策进行调整以符合WTO的规定。继而文章对日本农产品贸易保护的效果进行评析,指出其保护的总体效果并不理想,虽然取得了农业技术进步、农民收入提高、短期和局部的粮食安全效果,但代价却是沉重的,政府的保护政策使低效率的小农经营得以维持、阻碍了农业结构调整的步伐、加重了财政负担、加剧了贸易不平衡、使寻租和腐败现象变得严重、农产品的高价格和限制进口政策使消费者利益受损也使其它产业的出口受到损害,为了保护本国农业,日本总是在FTA/EPA谈判中将农业排除在外或作例外规定,使日本在国际经济合作中处于被动地位。日本已经陷入这样的怪圈：农业缺乏竞争力需要贸易保护,而高度贸易保护又导致农业更加缺乏竞争力。按正常的逻辑,日本政府应该积极进行保护政策的改革,但日本政府却并没有采取实质性的改革措施,而是寻找各种借口为保护辩护,尽量拖延农产品市场开放。那么,日本政府为什么要如此顽固的坚持实施保护政策,除了农业是日本的弱势产业需要一定的保护之外,还有什么更深层次的原因呢?为揭开谜底,文章利用前文构建的分析模型分别分析了日本农产品贸易政策决策相关机构、日本农业利益集团、WTO多边农产品贸易规则以及东亚地区主义对日本农产品贸易政策形成的影响,然后以日本大米市场的部分开放和日本加入TPP的艰难抉择为例,对各影响因素的博弈过程进行了实证分析。基于上述政治经济分析,笔者找出日本对农产品贸易持顽固保护态度的根源：日本有利于农村地区的选举制度是日本农民政治力量的源泉；农协对农民的强大组织能力和与政府的紧密联系使农民的政治力量得以充分发挥；农民、农协、农林族议员(执政党)、农水省之间形成的稳定的利益链使保护政策得以无限延续,当然,这是在没有外界影响的情况下。实际的情况是,当今世界各国的农产品贸易政策都要受到WTO多边贸易规则的制约和区域贸易协定的影响,日本也不例外。为了顺应国际农产品贸易自由化的历史潮流,日本必须对其农产品贸易保护政策进行改革。笔者认为,日本若想从根本上改革农产品贸易保护政策,就必须打破农民、农协、农林族议员、农业官僚之间的利益链,为此要彻底改革有利于农村选区的选举制度、削弱农协对农民的组织能力和对政府的影响力、防止政治家和官僚之间的利益交换。对于日本来说,这种改革很难在短期内完成,原因是日本政局尚处于调整期,目前还不稳定,即日本解决农业保护问题的国内条件尚不成熟。从日本在WTO多边农业谈判和FTA/EPA谈判中一贯采取的拖延、躲避的立场也可以看出,日本始终没有从根本上改革其农产品贸易保护的决心,也许只有在经济利益上和外交上真正危及到日本的核心利益时,彻底摧毁国内农业利益结构的政治决断的条件才会成熟。基于上述分析,笔者作出如下判断：首先,由日本农业利益结构短期内不会发生大的变化,可以断言其高度农产品贸易保护的趋势短期内不会改变,面对国内外的压力,日本一方面会对其基本农业政策继续进行改革,另一方面会对其农产品市场开放继续采取拖延、躲避的策略；其次,由日本农业的弱势状况短期内不会改变,可以断言日本对国际农产品市场的依赖性短期内不会改变。我们应该抓住机遇扩大对日农产品出口,同时要客观看待日本的农产品贸易保护问题,对其成功经验我们应该积极借鉴,对其政策误区应加以警戒,把握好农产品贸易保护的度,避免走入日本式保护怪圈。更多还原

【Abstract】 Agricultural products trade not only relates to a country’s economic interests, but also relates to political interests, including lots of major issues, such as the national food security, rural development and farmers’ income, national political and social stability,and so on.Therefore, all countries need to implement different degree of protection to the trade of agricultural products.Japan is one of the countries with the highest level of agricultural products trade protection in the world, and it’s political tendency of protection on farm products trade is the most serious, so the research on agricultural products trade protection in Japan has the typical significance.At the same time, Japan is China’s most important agricultural product export market, and Japan less cultivated land, agriculture is a weak industry, these characteristics are the similarity with us.In view of this, research on agricultural trade protection of Japan have the important meaning for enhance the competitiveness of China’s agricultural products export to Japan and for China’s adjustment to the agriculture and agricultural product of trade policy and revision on laws and regulations.Due to the agricultural products trade protection has not only economic reasons, but also there are political reasons,so the research on agricultural products trade protection needs to economics trade theory as the basis, and the analysis model should be from the political process of trade policy to construct.The theoretical construction part, mainly by the trade protection theory as the theoretical basis, to the political economy of trade policy as a theoretical tool, the political economy of trade policy in existing "interest group-government " fundamental analysis model to be improved, adding two new factors,one is WTO multilateral trade rules,and the other is regional trade agreement, so formation of "domestic interest groups-government-WTO multilateral trade rules-regional trade agreement " four-dimensional analysis model, as the theoretical framework for further analysis.The analysis part of this paper, firstly introduces the economic background of Japanese agricultural trade protection, and then introduces the history of Japanese agricultural trade protection policy, the evolvement of Japan’s agricultural trade protection policies are divided into three stages, each stage the main contents and policy characteristics and causes of agricultural products trade protection are introduced. Through the retrospect of more than a century of Japanese agricultural products trade protection policy change, can discover the overall trend of Japanese agricultural trade protection has been strengthened, even if is reached in the WTO "agricultural agreement", world agricultural trade liberalization trend emerging circumstances, agricultural products trade protection degree of Japan is not diminished.Then the article analyses the effect of Japanese agricultural trade protection, and points out that its overall effect is not ideal, despite the progress of agricultural technology, increasing the income of farmers, short-term and local food safety effect, but there is a heavy cost, government protection makes the low efficiency of small business to maintain, increased the financial burden, the rent-seeking and corruption has become more serious, high prices of agricultural products and import restrictions make consumer interests and other industry exports have suffered damage, in order to protect their own agriculture, Japan always excluded or exceptions on agricultural in FTA/EPA negotiations, which has threw Japan in the passive position in the international economic cooperation.Japan already in this curious cycle:the lack of competitiveness of agricultural need trade protection, and a high degree of trade protection lead to agriculture more competitiveness.According to the normal logic, the Japanese government should actively carry out the reform policy, but the Japanese government did not take substantive reform measures, but to find excuses for protection, to delay the opening agricultural product market.So, why the Japanese government is so stubbornly adhere to the implementation of protection policies, in addition to agriculture is the Japanese vulnerable industries require a certain degree of protection, and what is deeper reason?For an answer to the riddle, the paper use the formed analysis model to analyses respectively the influence of Japanese agricultural trade policy decision-making mechanism, the Japanese agricultural interest group, international agricultural product trade rules and East Asian regionalism on the formation of Japanese agricultural trade policy, and then use the partial opening of Japanese rice market and it’s difficult choice to join in TPP as empirical analysis examples to show how the influencing factors work on the game process.Based on analysis of the political economy, the author found the origin of Japanese stubborn attitude to protect agricultural product trade:Japan is conducive to rural electoral system is the source of Japanese farmers political power; JA’ strong ability on organize farmers and the close contact with the government make the peasants’political forces into full play; farmers, JA, agriculture and forestry family members (ruling party), and Ministry of Agriculture formed stable interest chain to make protection policy to continue indefinitely, of course, this is the case that there has no influence in the outside.The reality is that, in today’s world agricultural trade policy will be subject to international agricultural trade rules and be influenced by national interest group, Japan is no exception.In order to comply with the trend of international agricultural trade liberalization, Japan must carry on the reform of agricultural trade protection policy.The author thinks,if Japan wants to make fundamentally reform on the agricultural trade protection policies, it must break the interests chain between farmers, JA, agriculture and forestry family members (ruling party), and Ministry of Agriculture, so to completely reform the conducive to rural constituency system, weakening the JA’ organization ability on farmers and the impact on the government, prevent the exchange of interests between politicians and bureaucrats.For Japan, this reform is very difficult to do in the short term, the reason is the political situation in Japan is still in the period of adjustment, namely Japan’ condition to resolve domestic agricultural protection issue is not mature.From Japan’ attitude is always take delay and avoid in the WTO multilateral negotiations on agriculture and FTA/EPA negotiations, we can see that Japan has no determination to reform its agricultural products trade protection fundamentally, perhaps only interest in economy and diplomacy really threaten the core interests of Japan, politics decision condition on completely destroyed the agricultural interest structure of domestic will mature.Based on the above analysis, the author made the following judgments:first of all, from the agricultural interests structure of Japan short-term won’t produce big change, can assert that the high level of agricultural products trade protection will not change in the short term, face the pressure from home and abroad, on one hand, Japan will continue to reform the basic agricultural policy, on the other hand will continue to take the strategy to delay and avoid of the agricultural product market opening; secondly, by the Japanese agriculture is a weak industry status will not change in a short time, can assert that Japanese dependence on international agricultural product market in the short term will not change. We should seize the opportunity to expand agricultural exports to Japan, at the same time to take an objective look at the agricultural products trade protection in Japan, for the successful experience we should learn, its policy mistakes should be alert, a good grasp of agricultural products trade protection degree, avoid into the protective circle.更多还原