【作者】 吴亮；

【导师】 张桂文；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 政治经济学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 1978年改革开放以后，我国启动了二元经济转型进程，逐步放松了对劳动力流动的限制，大量劳动力从传统农业部门流入城市非农产业，从中西部经济落后地区流向东南部沿海地区。无限供给的农村劳动力以其低成本优势，成为支撑我国工业发展的坚实基础，为我国缩小城乡发展差距，解决农村劳动力就业难题，推进我国比较优势演变起到了不可低估的作用。然而进入21世纪以后，我国农村劳动力转移速度放缓，原材料、能源的价格和劳动力工资不断上升，对我国工业部门的国际竞争力带来了严峻挑战。特别是我国进入“刘易斯转折区间”之后，剩余劳动力无限供给转为有限供给，劳动力低成本的比较优势逐渐丧失，粗放的、低水平的、劳动力密集的经济增长方式将难以持续。与此同时，产业结构升级与城乡就业压力、农村“空心村”普遍存在与促进农业劳动力乡城迁移、城乡收入差距拉大与城乡利益协调机制失灵等矛盾相继出现，加剧了二元经济转型和比较优势提升的复杂性。本文结合我国实际情况，对经典二元经济转型模型进行了修正，建立了封闭条件下和开放条件下二元经济转型中的比较优势演变模型；考察了中国二元经济转型中比较优势的演变特点，在对上述一般模式进行修正的基础上，建立了开放经济条件下中国二元经济转型中比较优势演变模型，并对我国二元经济转型中比较优势演进进行了经验实证分析；借鉴参考了不同类型国家二元经济转型中比较优势演变的经验教训，提出了推进我国二元经济转型和比较优势提升的思考和建议。本文共分为6章4个部分，基本内容安排如下：第一部分为第一章“绪论”，介绍了论文选题的背景、目的和意义，本文的研究方法、基本结构和主要内容，以及本文的主要创新与不足。第二部分是论文的理论基础，包括第2章和第3章。其中第2章“文献综述”按照研究思路，首先介绍并评述了二元经济转型的一般理论与模型，着重阐述了刘易斯模型、费景汉-拉尼斯模型、乔根森模型和哈里斯-托达罗模型。其次对比较优势理论进行了评述。最后对20世纪80年代以来国内外学者的相关研究进行了综述评价。第3章“二元经济转型中比较优势演变的理论模型”，首先分析了封闭条件下二元经济转型中比较优势演变的前提假设、机制和条件，构建了封闭条件下二元经济转型中比较优势演变模型。其次探讨了开放条件下二元经济转型的背景、途径和比较优势演变模型，以及在开放条件下二元经济转型中提升比较优势需要注意的问题。之后对中国二元经济转型中比较优势演变特点进行了分析，最后提出了中国二元经济转型中比较优势演变模型。第三部分是二元经济转型中比较优势演变的经验实证，包括第4章和第5章。第4章“中国二元经济转型中比较优势的形成与演变”首先回顾了我国农业劳动力转移的所表现出来的“离土不离乡”和“非永久性乡城迁移”的特点，之后对刘易斯转折点进行了判断，最后从要素禀赋变化、要素禀赋变化对产业结构的影响、出口结构演变等方面对我国二元经济转型中比较优势演变进行了实证分析。第5章“二元经济转型与比较优势演变的国际比较”分别对典型国家/地区的二元经济转型与比较优势演变进行了比较，并总结了相应的成功经验与失败教训。指出在二元经济转型中要实现比较优势提升，关键阶段在刘易斯转折区间。典型国家/地区的成功经验主要有：遵循工业化规律，选择正确的经济发展战略；利用多种转移形式促进劳动力自由流动；提高农业劳动生产率，促进两部门协调发展；把收入分配差距控制在适度区间；依靠技术创新，推进二元经济转型和比较优势提升。而拉美各国在二元经济转型中过度城市化和巨大的就业压力使这些国家的经济长期陷于停滞或低迷状态。第四部分是对策建议部分，是论文第6章的内容。该章首先分析了推进我国二元经济转型与比较优势提升的难点，并根据这些难点问题提出了相应的对策，包括树立创新意识，探索转型升级新途径；利用产业转移，充分发挥区域比较优势；加快农业现代化，推进产业协调发展；建立和完善收入分配制度，扩大内需；完善调控机制，协调城乡利益关系；重视民营经济作用，解决劳动力就业压力。更多还原

【Abstract】 After the reform and opening-up in1978, China launched a dual economytransformation process, and had gradually eased the restrictions on labor mobility. Largeamount of labors, from traditional agricultural sector and the Midwest undevelopedregions, flow into Non-agricultural industries in the southeast coastal areas. Unlimitedamount of low-cost labors have became the solid foundation of the industrialdevelopment in China. It also played a significant part in narrowing the gap betweenurban and rural areas, in solving the problems of the rural unemployed labor force, and inpromoting the evolution of the comparative advantages of China.However，the transfer of rural labor force is slowing down after2000, and the costof raw material, energy and labor wages are becoming higher; all these changes hadbrought challenges to the competitiveness of China’s industrial sectors. Especially whenour country stepped into the "Lewis turning point range", the unlimited supply of surpluslabors turned into a limited supply. The comparative advantages of low-cost labor forcegradually disappeared. Extensive, low-level and labor-intensive economic growth modebecomes difficult to sustain. Meanwhile, there are other conflicts, such as the conflictbetween industry upgrading and the employment problems among urban and rural areas;the conflict between the existing rural "hollow village" and pushing agricultural laborsinto unban areas, widening urban and rural income gap versus the failures ofcoordination between urban and rural interests. These conflicts exacerbated thecomplexity for upgrading our comparative advantages and the transition of dual economy.In this article, we first made some modification in the existing model of dual economictransition regarding to the current condition of China, then offered the characteristics ofcomparative advantage evolution in duel economic transition, and finally madeexperiences and empirical analysis of comparative advantage in the transition of dualeconomy in our country. Each country has its own evolvement rule of dual economies, byknowing that, we also considered all those evolvement rules for reference in order tomake some positive advice to promote the transition of our dual economies and toimprove comparative advantages.This article contains6chapters and can be divided into4parts. The basic content ofthis article is organized as follows: The first part, Chapter1, is the Introduction. This part introduces the background,purpose and significance of the selected topic, together with the study approach, basicstructure and main points. There is also discussion on the innovation and deficiency ofthis paper.The second part, including Chapter2and Chapter3, is the theoretical basis of thearticle. Chapter2is Literature Review. It mainly introduces the dual economic transitiontheories and models, giving detailed explanation on the Lewis-Ranis-Fei model,Jorgenson model and Harris-Todaro model. The theory of comparative advantage is thenbeing discussed. Lastly we focus on the summarization and comment of domestic andforeign scholars’ researches related to the transition of dual economy and its comparativeadvantages since1980’s. The third chapter is about ‘theoretical model of evolution ofcomparative advantage in dual economic transition’. It firstly analyzes the hypothesis，mechanism and preconditions of dual economic transition and the comparative advantageevolution under a closed condition, and proposed the model of dual economic transitionand the comparative advantage evolution. Then it discusses the background approach ofdual economic transition under an open condition, and the model of comparativeadvantage evolution；and areas we should pay attention to during the process of dualeconomic transition and the comparative advantage evolution under a open condition.After this, it analyses the characteristics of dual economic transition and the comparativeadvantage evolution in China, and lastly proposes the model for comparative advantageevolution during the dual economic transition of China.The third part is about empirical analysis of the comparative advantage evolution indual economic transition, including Chapter4and Chapter5. In Chapter4,‘Theformation and evolution of comparative advantage of dual economic transition of China’,we firstly review the characters of ‘leaving the farmland, but not leaving the hometown’and ‘non-permanent rural-urban migration’ showed in the transfer of our agriculture labor,and then makes a judgment on the Lewis Turing Point. At last, makes an empiricalanalysis on the comparative advantage regarding to factor endowment changes, and theeffects put by factor endowment changes on industrial structure.In Chapter5, the international comparison between dual economic transition and theevolution of comparative advantage, we will compare the dual economic transition andcomparative advantage evolution of typical countries and regions, for instance, the developed countries and Latin American countries respectively, and summarizes theexperiences of success and lessons we learnt from failure. It is pointed out that to achieveimprovement in comparative advantage, the key phrase lies in the interval of the LewisTuring Point. The experiences of successful nations and regions are: follow theindustrial law, choose the right economic development strategy, use multiple ways toensure the flow ability of rural labor，promote agricultural modernization, develop thetertiary industry, better the industrial structure, stress the importance of the educationaltraining and optimize the quality of the labors. However, some Latin American countriesare caught in the “comparative advantage trap” and “middle-income trap”, the speed ofthe dual economic transition is lower than that of the urbanization. Over-urbanization andenormous employment pressure long-term depression to these countries.The forth section is chapter6, it concentrates on countermeasures and suggestions.In this Chapter, we will firstly analysis the difficulties in upgrading the advantageevolution in the dual economic transition in China, and proposes corresponding measures,including taking advantage of industrial transfer to fully exert the regional comparativeadvantage, depending on the technological progress and modernization of agriculturalproduction to enhance the role of technology in economic, realizing the balanceddevelopment of the industry and agriculture, increasing the income of the labors,expanding the domestic demands, breaking through the restraint of the demands of theinternational and domestic markets, fully mobilizing the regulatory mechanism of themarket and the government, and coordinating the interest relationship between the urbanand rural areas.更多还原