【作者】 王波；

【导师】 张虹；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 国民经济学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 消费需求长效机制是经济机制的一种，指在一系列经济社会政策措施和影响因素的综合作用下，确保消费持续扩大和稳定增长的内部运转和外部作用的原理，以保证消费需求长期正常运行并发挥预期功能的制度体系。消费需求长效机制本身是一项系统工程，具有长效性、扩展性和规范性等基本特征。近年来，我国一系列扩大消费需求政策取得一定成效，但政策刺激消费的整体作用还没有充分发挥，扩大个人消费需求长效机制至今仍未建立。2010年底“十二五”规划中首次提出建立扩大消费需求的长效机制，同时“十二五”时期也正值我国加快经济结构调整、扩大内需、推进经济发展方式转变的关键时期，因此，对扩大个人消费需求长效机制的研究，既是我国当前和今后较长时期的一项战略任务，也是以消费需求驱动经济增长的根本要求。本文在国内外消费需求的研究背景和消费经济学的相关知识、消费对经济增长的作用机理以及消费需求长效机制相关理论的基础上，分别从消费规模、消费结构、消费水平三个方面分析了中国消费需求的总体特征及主要制约因素。改革开放以来我国保持了较快的经济增长，消费规模不断扩大，但消费需求不足问题一直存在，居民个人消费率偏低且持续下降的趋势明显，城乡居民间、居民和政府间以及国内外的消费结构不平衡，区域间、城乡间以及不同年龄居民之间的消费水平也存在明显的差异性，消费需求对经济增长的拉动作用相对不足。实际上，我国个人消费需求不足主要受居民收入水平相对下降、经济二元结构的长期存在、政府基本公共服务供给能力不足、社会保障制度不完善、促进消费增长的政策缺乏长效性等原因的影响。因此，扩大个人消费需求长效机制的构建就需要相关经济制度和经济体制的保障，其中，规范、配套、稳定的消费制度是构建长效机制的基本条件，释放潜在消费群体的消费能力是构建长效机制的关键，而深化体制改革、完善消费制度、优化消费环境是构建长效机制的重要保证。文中分别基于“橄榄型”收入分配格局的构建、人口老龄化背景释放老年人的消费能力、低碳消费路径的选择三个视角提出保障扩大个人消费需求长效机制构建的对策：其一，合理化收入分配改革机制。收入分配格局不合理、收入差距过大是导致居民个人消费需求不足的主要原因，因此，建立居民收入稳定增长机制、城乡居民就业保障机制，是建立居民个人消费需求长效机制的基础。通过完善税收、转移支付、公共服务、发展慈善事业等加大对收入再分配的调节作用，形成“橄榄型”收入分配格局，提高居民个人消费预期和消费信心，即从增强个人消费能力和消费意愿入手，构建扩大个人消费需求长效机制。其二，完善养老保险制度改革机制。通过中国社会基本养老保险对老年人消费影响的实证研究发现，在人口老龄化的背景下，加快完善养老保险制度改革，调整并优化养老保险基金筹资和给付水平，有助于实现养老资源最优配置，释放老年人消费群体潜在的消费能力。其三，倡导低碳消费观念。低碳消费本身反映了消费结构升级与节能减排，它是构建扩大个人消费需求长效机制的重点，通过对居民个人消费需求与人均碳排放量的实证研究，探索了资源消耗与个人消费适度增长之间的关系，提出倡导居民树立低碳消费观念，促进可持续消费，以期优化个人消费结构、提升消费素质和提高消费质量，实现个人消费由粗放式向集约式的转换。更多还原

【Abstract】 Long-term mechanism of expanding consumer demand is one kind of economicmechanisms, which refers to the external and internal principles that guarantee thecontinuous enlargement and increase of consumption under the combined impact of aseries of policies, countermeasures and affecting factors, used to ensure the normaloperation of a long-term consumer demand and played institutional system intendedfunction. It is a systematic project and is of such features as chronicity, scalability andstandardization, etc. In recent years, China has witnessed some positive results byimplementing a series of policies to expand consumer demand, but the overall impact isstill limited. The long-term mechanism of expanding consumer demand has not yet beenestablished. In the end of2010, it is put forward for the first time in the TwelfthFive-Year Plan the establishment of long-term mechanism to expand consumer demand.Besides, the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period is also a critical moment for China toaccelerate economic restructuring, expand domestic demand and promote economictransformation. Therefore, research on long-term mechanism of expanding consumerdemand is not only a long-lasting strategic task, but also a fundamental requirement for aconsumer demand-driven economic growth.Consumer demand has been an important part of economic research. The paperanalyzed the general characteristics and main affecting factors of China’s consumerdemand from the aspects of size, structure and level of consumption, based on theknowledge of literatures and theories about consumer demand, consumer economics, theway that how consumption affects economic growth and long-term mechanism ofexpanding consumer demand. Since the Reform and Opening Up Policy, China hasmaintained a rapid economic growth rate, and domestic consumption has been expanding.But consumer demand is still insufficient, and personal consumption rate is low and stilldeclining. The structure of consumption is imbalanced between urban and rural residents,household and government sectors, as well as at home and abroad. There is an evidentdifference of consumption level between different regions, urban and rural areas,residents of different ages. The pull of consumption on economy is comparatively weak.The following factors will contribute to China’s consumer demand insufficiency: a relative decrease in household income, the long-term existence of dualistic economicstructure, lack of public services and the short term of consumption-boosting policies.Theestablishment of long-term mechanism of expanding consumer demand needs thesafeguard of relative economic systems, among which it is the basic condition toestablish a standard, systematic and stable consumption system, it is the key factor torelease the consumption ability, it is an important safeguard to deepen system reform,perfect consumption system,optimize consumption environment. Therefore, this paperhas put forward some suggestions in the following aspects: establish an "olive" incomedistribution structure, release the consumption potential of the elderly population andchoose a low-carbon consumption path：First, rationalize the income distribution reform. Unreasonable income distributionand the big income gap are the main reasons for an inadequate consumer demand. Thus,to establish a steady income increase mechanism and an employment guaranteemechanism are the foundation for establishing long-term mechanism of expandingconsumer demand. Furthermore, by improving the taxing system, transfer payments,public services and charity, an "olive" income distribution structure can take shape. As aresult of this, consumer expectations and consumer confidence will boom up, consumerspending power and willingness will be strengthened.Second, improve the endowment insurance system. Our empirical research on theinfluence of social endowment insurance on elderly consumption in China shows that itis helpful to optimize the allocation of endowment insurance resources and to release theelderly consumers’ potential spending power.Third, foster a low-carbon consumption concept. Low-carbon consumption itselfreflects the upgrading of consumption structure as well as energy conservation andemission reduction. It is the key factor to build long-term mechanism to expandconsumer demand. By empirical studies on the relationship between consumer demandand carbon emission per capita, this paper has put forward a low-carbon consumptionconcept and advocated a low-carbon green consumption pattern which is expected topromote sustainable consumption. By exploring the relationship between resourcesconsumption and a reasonable consumption growth rate, we can optimize the structure of household consumption, improve the quality of consumption and shift the personalconsumption path from extensive to an intensive one.更多还原