【作者】 赵亚南；

【导师】 程伟；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 世界经济， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 区域经济一体化已经成为当今世界主导经济的典型模式，表现为主要国家和区域集团特别关注发展区域和次区域经贸安排，推动地区贸易投资自由化和便利化的同时也促进地区经济发展。在此背景下，一贯支持推进多边贸易体制的美国也顺应大潮流，利用推动或参与区域经济一体化的方式来不断巩固其在世界经济中的重要地位，这充分说明了美国对外贸易政策侧重点的变化，即由多边贸易主义向区域贸易主义转化。本文分析的立足点是金融危机之后的美国亚太区域贸易政策，在文中界定为“新时期”美国主动加入、积极主导并大力推进原本由几个名不经传的的亚太小国签订的区域贸易协定TPP，美国既主导TPP的谈判进程和节奏，又利用TPP实现其政治和经济目的，美国已经与TPP形成了互为影响相互依赖的关系，鉴于此，后文将其称之为“美国TPP”。加入该协议恰逢美国遭遇金融危机之后的国内经济疲软之际，所以其加入意图引起众多猜想，美国当真要通过TPP来实现其单纯的拉动经济的目的？还是希望借实现经济目的之名行主导亚太事务的政治目标之实？亦或是借TPP来遏制中国的发展？今后TPP前景如何？中国又何从抉择呢？所以有必要对TPP的来龙去脉、前因后果以及发展趋势作系统分析，以便为中国参与区域一体化策略的制定给于有力地支持和借鉴。全文共分为7章，每章主要内容如下。第一章绪论部分首先对选题背景及写作意义进行阐述，然后对相关研究文献进行梳理和述评，从而提出写作逻辑。第二章为区域经济一体化贸易效应理论分析框架。首先提出区域主义和区域经济一体化的内涵界定，从而确定美国TPP的区域主义和区域经济一体化的双重属性；然后对区域主义和区域经济一体化的相关理论进行梳理，为后文的进一步分析建立结构性基础；最后提出区域经济一体化贸易效应分析的理论基础，主要包括局部均衡viner分析框架下的贸易创造效应和贸易转移效应以及一般均衡条件下的Meade模型的福利分析，通过两种模型的介绍，为后文的实证分析提供理论依据。第三章立足于全球角度分析美国区域经济一体化战略，重点阐述美国长期以来为维护自身的世界霸主地位，如何从多边主义贸易政策向区域主义贸易政策转变。目的是梳理出美国近期的区域经济一体化策略的战略转移重点，以及TPP的起源、发展以及相关特征等问题，为后文的论述提供必要的现实基础。第四章分析美国TPP战略的意图，主要从政治动因、经济动因、理念动因等方面分析，试图从深层次挖掘美国加入TPP的目的，本章内容属于对区域经济一体化的传统规范分析，目的是为后文的实证分析提供必要的前提基础。第五章对美国TPP的贸易效应进行实证分析，主要采用以引力模型为代表的局部均衡分析和以GTAP模型为代表的一般均衡分析方法。首先对两种方法的应用进行经验性总结，找出适用于本文分析的方法依据；然后先使用引力模型得出美国扩容TPP所考虑的主要因素，为后文的GTAP模型的模拟方案的设定提供依据，再通过GTAP模型分析得出TPP将对成员国和非成员国产生何种具体的贸易效应，为预测TPP的前景提供必要依据。第六章提出美国TPP贸易效应实施的影响因素分析，在前文实证分析得出的结论基础上，加入美国国内因素、其他成员国因素、国际环境因素等多种因素的分析，检验是否对前文中的结论存在阻滞影响，在写作上属于与第五章相对应的定性分析。第七章对TPP的发展前景预测及中国的对策进行阐述。主要在前文TPP贸易效应的分析基础上对TPP的发展前景进行预测，以此作出中国是否加入TPP的决策选择，并在此基础上对中国在TPP以及区域经济一体化中扮演的角色进一步剖析，以及作出一系列相关对策选择。通过分析得出如下结论：第一，美国对外贸易政策的侧重点从多边主义向区域主义转变有其必然性和可行性，即美国在坚持多边贸易主义的过程中遇到了挫折，迫使其将贸易政策的重点转移至区域主义；区域主义相较于多边主义有着不可替代的优越性，如较低的谈判成本、处理问题的相机性以及短期收效显著等等。第二，TPP是一个包含多国、广域的区域贸易一体化协议，具有高标准、开放性、约束性和渐进性等特点，但同时该协议也存在一系列开放性质疑，即高标准能否一直执行下去；能否解决“意大利面碗效应”以及实现多边性区域主义目标等等。因此，TPP的自身特点决定了它将成为美国在亚太地区继APEC之后推行的新的区域贸易政策以重新获取亚太地区的主导权，同时也由于TPP所存在的质疑使得美国TPP未来前景不明朗。第三，经过引力模型实证分析得知，美国在未来扩容TPP的过程中有可能会考虑吸引经济规模较大的国家加入，且曾经与美国有过经济合作经验或建立过政治军事同盟的国家；按照引力模型得出的TPP扩容可能路径进行GTAP模拟方案设计，即模拟韩国加入、全部东盟国家加入以及全部APEC国家加入，得出如下结论：1）韩国加入TPP的政治意图更加明显，因其加入并不能带来显著的经济福利增加2）随着TPP成员国的逐渐扩大，成员国的福利会越来越大，尤其是对于经济实力强的国家会得到更大程度的改善，但同时如果被TPP边缘化，则会带来确定的贸易损失；3）中国对TPP的作用是不可忽视的，没有中国的TPP是不完整的。第四，综合TPP贸易效应分析和其影响因素可以预测，谈判的主要分岐将迎刃而解；短期内最有可能加入的国家是韩国，而长期来看，TPP成员大规模扩大可能性不大，所以在协议达成之前未必能很快向中国发出加入TPP的邀请，但是一旦中国加入，将会得到大多数国家的欢迎。所以说，中国在接到TPP发出的邀请后不应该马上加入，而是在权衡之后延迟加入；充分做好各项准备以加入TPP，包括积极促进地区其他一体化进程、调整国内产业结构、争取舆论支持等；选择适当的时机主动加入TPP，化被动为主动。更多还原

【Abstract】 Regional economic integration has become a typical model in today’s world leadingeconomy, as major countries and regional groups to pay particular attention to thedevelopment of regional and sub-regional trade arrangements, in order to promote theliberalization and facilitation of regional trade and investment as well as regionaleconomic development. In this context, U.S., having supported the multilateral tradesystem, also complies with the trend, by promoting or participating in the regionaleconomic interation to consolidate its important status in the world economy, which fullyshows the change of priorities of American trade policy, namely switching from trademultilateralism to regionalism. Based on the analysis of American Asia-Pacific tradepolicy after "financial crisis", the "new period" is defined when U.S. actively joined inTPP, origionally signed by several small Asia-Pacific nations, and then positively led aswell as vigorously promoted it, by which U.S.could not only decide the process and thefrequency of TPP’s negotiation, also realize its aim from the view of politics andeconomy. The mutually influenced and dependent relationship between U.S. and TPP hascome into being, which is the reason for "U.S. TPP" called in the following study. DoesU.S. really want to achieve its pure economic purpose through TPP, hope to achieveeconomic objective in the name of realizing political objective to judge Asia Pacificaffairs reality, or to contain China’s development? How is the prospect of TPP? What arethe China’s choices and countermeasures? So the analysis of TPP system is necessary,which concludes not only the review of the study on development of TPP but also theaccurate estimation on it’s influence. Based on the above ideas, the main content comesas follows:The first chapter is the introduction part which explains the background andsignificance of writing, reviews the relevent research literature, and then puts forward thelogic of writing.The second chapter is the theoretical framework of trade effect of regional economicintegration, which defines the connotations of regionalism and regional economicintegration firstly, in order to determine the attributes of TPP, then brings about therelated theories of regionalism and regional economic integration, a structural basis for the further analysis; finally, covers the theories of trade effect of regional economicintegration, which includes the analysis of effect of trade creation effect and tradediversion under the framework of partial equilibrium of Viner’s model, and the welfareanalysis under the general equilibrium of Meade’s, providing the theory basis for thefollowing empirical analysis by the two above models.The third chapter analyses the American regional economic integration strategyfrom the global perspective, focuses on how U.S. transformed its trade policy frommulti-lateralism to regionalism in order to maintain its hegemony in the world, theobjective of which is to tease out the emphasis on the shift of America recent regionaleconomic integration strategy, as well as the origin, development and characteristics ofTPP, to provide the necessary basis for the following analysis.The fourth chapter analyses the intention of U.S.TPP strategy, mainly from themotivations of politics, economy, and conception, trying to find out the real objective ofjoin in TPP for U.S., the content of which belongs to the traditional specification analysisfor regional economic integration, as prerequisite for the following empirical analysis.The fifth chapter belongs to empirical analysis of trade effect of U.S. TPP, being inuse of the Gravity model and GTAP model, which represent the partial equilibriumanalysis and the general equilibrium analysis respectively. The empirical summary of thetwo methods is being put forward at the beginning as to find out the reasons of the usageof the two methods in this paper; then expansion path of U.S.TPP and the welfare effectof various members and non-members of TPP are stressed, as the focus of the fullargument.The sixth chapter puts forward the factors that affect the trade effects’implementation of American TPP, ie. basing on the conclusion of the former empiricalanalysis, domestic factors of U.S. and other member countries together with the factorsof global environment are considered to test whether or not they would block the tradeeffects’s implementation, which belongs to the qualitative analysis corresponding to thatof the fifth chapter.The prediction on the prospect of TPP and China’s countermeasures has beenexpounded in the seventh chapter. With the basis of the empirical analysis of trade effectsof TPP, first comes up with the development prospects of TPP in the future, by which brings about the suggestions for China to play an role in the regional integration and totake the corresponding countermeasures in the future.Through the above analysis the conclusions are being drawn as follows:Firstly, the necessity and feasibility of transformation of American trade policypriorities from multilateralism to regionalism exist in reality, namely when themultilateralism U.S. insisted on encountered setbacks, American trade policy forced toshift to regionalism; regionalism has irreplaceable advantages comparing tomultilateralism, such as lower negotiation cost, more flexibility to deal with the problemand short-term effectiveness etc.Secondly, TPP is one of multinational, wide-region trade integration agreements,with high standard, open, constraints and progressive characteristics, but at the same time,the protocol also has a series of open questions, namely whether the high standard wouldbe implemented; whether "Pasta Bowl effect" can be solved and whether the target ofimplementation of multilateral regionalism can be realized etc. Therefore, thecharacteristics of the TPP decided it will become a new regional trade policy U.S. wouldturn to in the Asia-Pacific region after APEC to regain dominance in this area, but suchopen questions about TPP would add the uncertainty of U.S.TPP in the future.Thirdly, through the analysis of gravity model, results have been drawn out that: it ispossible for U.S. to attract more large economies in TPP, especially those who havesigned the treaties with economic purpose and political and military alliance; inaccordance with the possible expansion path of TPP derived from the gravity model,following simulation designs under GTAP have been thought out, ie. South Korea to joinin, all ASEAN countries to join in and all the APEC countries to join in, and draws thefollowing conclusions:1) the political intention for South Korea joining in the TPP ismore obvious because of its not significant benefit after joining in2) with the gradualexpansion of TPP members, benefits of members of would be more and more, especiallythe large economies would get greater improvement, while they would encounter certainlosses if they do not join in.3) the importance of China on TPP would not be ignored,and the TPP without China would not be complete.Finally, on the basis of analysis of the trade effect of TPP and the relative influentialfactors, it can be predicted that, the main differences of the negotiations will be smoothly done or easily solved; in short term are most likely to join the country is South Korea,and in the long run, it is unlikely to massively expand for TPP member, so China wouldunlikely get the quick invitation to join in from TPP, but once China requests to join, itwould be certain get welcome from most member countries of TPP. Therefore, Chinawould not joined immediately upon receipt of the TPP invitation, delay to join afterconsideration or get ready to join the TPP, including positively improving otherintegration process in this area, adjusting domestic industrial structure, striving for thesupport of public opinions, and select the appropriate timing to join TPP, switching fromnegative position to active position.更多还原