【作者】 谢剑锋；

【导师】 徐平；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 世界经济， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 二战后，日本实现了高速的工业经济增长。在高速工业化的进程中，农民与城市劳动者的收入差距在经历了短暂的扩大后迅速弥合。到上世纪70年代中期，日本农民的收入与消费水平已经赶上甚至超过了城市居民，农民群体充分地分享到了经济增长的成果。但是，与农民相对收入水平发生逆转的时期几乎重合，日本农业在经济高速增长阶段里迅速衰退，出现了农业生产结构调整不力、生产成本高企等问题。而这些产业素质层面的问题在农业产业职能层面上也体现出来，表现为食物自给率持续下降、农业多样性功能难以维护等愈发严重的现象。一个疑问是，为何在战后高速工业化进程中日本农民利益增长与农业发展分化于不同的路径？高速的工业经济（带动的）增长在一定条件下是否会成为推动农民利益与农业发展相背离的力量？如果回答是肯定的，那么又是以何种机制使其实现的呢？寻求对上述问题的解答是本文主要的研究目的和提出问题的动力，而上文所述的日本农业领域的现象是理论研究的现实基础。为了证实的这个猜想，本文以工农部门间收入差距变化为视角构建了模型，并分别赋予工农两部门规模报酬递增与规模报酬递减的不同特质。理论实证的结果显示，在农业剩余劳动力不断流入工业部门的过程中，工农收入差距仍可能在一段时期内持续的扩大，而这种可能性与农业产值占比、农产品相对价格等负相关，与工业规模报酬递增的程度、人口密度、初始时期农业人口比例等正相关。就日本的实际情况看，是相对容易满足上述条件的：战后日本工业经济高速增长、农业产值占比迅速下降，农产品价格的受到弹性的制约；而日本工业化极为成功、报酬递增特征明显，战后的大规模人口回流农村也扩大了农业人口的比例。在收入差距不断扩大的前提下，文中进一步对由此引致的农民兼业行为和政府的农业保护行为（对不断扩大的部门间收入差距的回应）对农业和农民群体产生的不同效应作了分析，在此基础上提出了高速工业化对农民与农业产生不同作用的影响机制。依此框架对日本在高速工业化进程中农民收入迅速增长、农业领域逐渐衰退的事实进行了过程研究，结论与猜想是相符合的。综上，本文的核心观点是，在高速工业化进程中一国或地区的工农部门间收入差距很可能持续扩大，这在一定条件下会使农民收入来源多元化（兼业）并使政府提供农业保护（农产品价格支持等）；农民兼业与农产品价格支持会提高农民的收入水平，但是也会制约农业生产结构的调整、抑制农业规模的扩大。在经济高速增长、人力成本上升较快的阶段，农业生产的小规模化将直接导致农产品的高成本和低下的国际竞争力，在面临开放本国农产品市场的压力下，农业的存在和发展将成为问题。本文共有8章。第1章为绪论部分。此章提出了日本在战后的工业化进程中农民利益与农业发展分化于不同路径的问题，并对研究的意义、研究思路及论文的结构做了阐释，在对相关文献进行分析的基础上做出了评述。第2章为理论模型的构建。此章以工农收入差距的变化为视角构建了数理模型，揭示了在工业呈规模报酬递增、而农业呈规模报酬递减特质的前提下，工农收入差距演变可能遵循的几条路径。并讨论了在工农工资率差距逐渐增大的情况下，农民兼业与农业保护政策出现的必然性。此外，讨论了多个外生变量对工农收入差距收敛条件能否成立的影响。第3章为战后日本农业发展初始条件的分析。此章围绕着第2章理论模型中相关的外生变量，如农业人口的占比、人口密度及农产品相对价格等进行了定性分析，为日本工农收入差距逐渐增大的原因提供初始的、静态的解释。并对日本农业政治地位与经济地位不相称的事实进行了分析，为第6章做了部分基础性的工作。第4章为日本农业现存的主要问题分析。此章以农业结构调整不力为主线，分析了日本农业生产规模过小、农民兼业化、农村老龄化的辩证关系。提出了以上各个现象之间的因果循环累积影响机制。第5章以日本在高速工业化进程中工农部门间收入差距的实际变化趋势、日本在收入差距扩大的时期里确实出现的农民兼业和高度农业保护政策等事实为依据证实了第2章理论模型中的预测。并以农民兼业与农业保护为动因，建立了工业化推动农民利益与农业发展相分离的影响机制。并以该机制为基本框架，解释了日本工业经济高速增长的过程中，以上动因如何通过抑制农业生产主体结构调整而使农民利益增长和农业发展分化于不同的路径，即农民的收入水平和消费水平逐渐赶上并超过城市居民，而农业的产业素质却难以提升以致于在产业职能层面出现了严重的问题。第6章以日本相关利益集团间的博弈为视角，解释了日本提供农业保护政策的原因，并根据各阶段的博弈结果分析了农业保护政策演变的趋势。以日本经济发展的大背景转换为依据，预测了未来农业利益团体相对力量的变化、日本农业政策调整及农业改革的方向。此章的后部分内容也为第7章中关于日本农业在区域经济一体化进程中面临的问题做了铺垫性的说明。第7章分析了由于农业的弱质性，而使日本在区域经济一体化进程中处于困境的事实，亦即由于农民与农业的利益分离而使日本农业难以存在于更加彻底的开放模式下。此章以日本难以缔结日澳EPA、难以加入TPP等事例来说明农业羸弱带给日本经济与外交层面上的严重后果。第8章为得自于日本农业问题的启示与面向我国的对策部分。此章以日本农业农民问题分化的原因和产生的后果为依据，提出了对农政策的两难、开放层面的农业危机等我国也可能在今后的发展中面临的问题；并从扩大生产规模、促进农业结构调整的视角提出了相关的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 After World War II, Japan achieved rapid industrial growth. In the process of rapidindustrialization, the income gap between farmers and urban workers faded away after abrief expanding. By the mid-1970s, farmers’ income and consumption levels in Japan hascaught up with and even more than the urban residents and farmers groups fully sharedthe fruits of economic growth. However, almost overlap with the period of relativeincome levels of farmers reversal, Japan’s agriculture rapid decline in the economicgrowth stage, there has been inadequate agricultural production structure adjustment,high production costs and other issues. These industrial quality level issues is alsoreflected in the agriculture industry functional level, likely showed food self-sufficiencyrate has continued to decline, agricultural diversity increasingly difficult to maintain andother serious phenomenon.A question is whether the rapid economic growth driven by industrialization is theforce to promote deviating of the interests of farmers and agricultural development? Inorder to confirm this conjecture, from the perspective of income gap change betweendepartments of workers and peasants the paper build a model, and given the twodepartments different qualities of increasing returns to scale and decreasing returns. Theresults of the empirical theory shows that in the process of continuous inflow of surplusagricultural labor force in the industrial sector, the income gap between workers andpeasants are still likely to continue to expand at a period of time, and this possibility hasa negative correlation with agricultural output proportion, has a positive correlationwith the degree of increasing returns to scale industries, population density, proportionof agricultural population in the initial period.The actual situation in Japan is relatively easy to meet the above conditions: highspeed industrial growth in postwar Japan, Agricultural output value proportion dropsrapidly, prices for agricultural products is restricted by the elastic; while Japanindustrialized extremely successful, the characteristic of increasing returns is obvious,the postwar large-scale population flow also expand the proportion of agriculturalpopulation in the countryside. Under the premise of the widening income gap, the paper further analyzed the farmers concurrent business behavior and the government’sagricultural protection behavior (response to the growing income gap betweendepartments), based on this proposed the mechanism about the different effect on thehigh-speed industrialization mechanism for farmers and agricultural. In accordance withthe framework the paper research the facts that the rapid growth of farmers’ income andagriculture gradually recession in the process of high-speed Japan industrialization, theconclusion is consistent with conjecture。In conclusion, the core idea is that in the industrialization process of countries orregions, department of workers and peasants income gap is likely to continue to expand,which under certain conditions can make the farmers’ income diversified (off-farm) andmake the government to provide agricultural protection(agricultural price supports, etc.);Concurrent-business farmers and agricultural prices support will raise the income level offarmers, but also restrict the adjustment of agricultural production structure, restrain theexpansion of agriculture. In the high-speed economic growth and labor costs rise fasterphase, the small scale of agricultural production will directly lead to the high cost ofagricultural products and low international competitiveness, in the pressure of openingdomestic agricultural products market, the existence and development of agriculture willbe an issue.This paper has eight chapters. Chapter1is the introduction. This chapter putsforward the problem of diverging different paths on the agricultural development and theinterests of farmers in the period of industrialization process of Japan’s post-war, andinterprets the meaning of research、research ideas and thesis structure, makes thecommitment based on the analysis of the related papers.Chapter2is the construction of a theoretical model. in the perspective of the changeof the income gap of workers and peasants it builds the mathematical model, On thepremise of increasing returns to scale in the industry and decreasing returns to scale inagricultural, reveals the several paths about the evolution of the income gap betweenworkers and peasants could follow.And discussed in the case of a gradual increase inwage rates between workers and peasants, the inevitability of concurrent-businessfarmers and agricultural protection policy.In addition, discusses the effects of whetherthe influence about multiple exogenous variables to the convergence condition of the workers and peasants income gap.Chapter3is the analysis of the post-war Japanese agricultural development initialconditions. This chapter centers on the exogenous variables of the theoretical model inchapter2, carries on a qualitative analysis about the proportion of agriculturalpopulation、population density and the relative prices of agricultural products and so on,provides the initial static explanation for the reason of the Japanese gradually wideningincome gap of workers and peasants and analyzes disproportionate facts on the politicalstatus and economic status, and do some fundamental work for chapter6.Chapter4analyzes the main problems existing in Japan agriculture. This chapteruses agricultural structure ineffective adjustment as the main line, analyses the dialecticalrelationship on the Japanese agricultural production scale is too small、 farmers’concurrent business、rural ageing,and proposes the cumulative effect of the causal loopmechanism about all phenomenon.Chapter5based on actual change trend in the process of high-speed industrializationdepartment of workers and peasants income gap、in the era of the widening income gapof farmers’ concurrent business and highly agricultural protection policy confirmed thetheoretical model of chapter2,taking farmers’ concurrent business Concurrent-businessand agriculture protection for motivation, promoting a mechanism of Industrialization toseprate farmers’ interests farmers and agricultural development， and with themechanism as the basic framework, explains the in the process of rapid Japanese industryeconomic growth, the above motivations how to adjust the interests of famers and theagriculture development different paths by restraining the main body of agriculturestructure,namely the standard of peasants’ income and consumption level gradually catchup with and surpass the urban residents, and agricultural industry quality is difficult toimprove so that in the aspect of industrial functions it appeares serious problems.Chapter6in the perspective of Japan’s game between the relevant interest groups,explains the reason why Japan provides agricultural protection policy, and according tothe results of each stage of the game analysis it explains the trend in the evolution ofthe agricultural protection policy. Based on the big background of the development ofJapan’s economic transformation, forecasts the future relative power change ofagricultural interest groups, Japanese agriculture policy adjustment and the direction of the agricultural reform. The later part of this chapter is for chapter7,explains somereasons for the problems of the agriculture in the process of regional economicintegration.Chapter7analyzes the fact that due to the weak nature of agriculture, leaving Japanin a dilemma in the process of regional economic integration, namely that due to theinterests of farmers and agricultural separation makes it difficult for exist Japaneseagriculture in the more completely open mode. This chapter illustrates the seriousconsequences on the diplomatic level by the facts that Japan is difficult to join EPA andTPP.Chapter8is about the enlightenment from Japanese agriculture problems andcountermeasures for our country. Based on the reasons and consequences of thedifferentiation of Japanese agriculture and farms,puts forward of the dilemma ofagricultrue policy、the agruculture crisis and so on,and these problems may also be ourproblems in the future;and from the point of expanding the production scale, promotingagricultural structure adjustment,it puts forward relevant policy suggestions.更多还原