【作者】 张宏铭；

【导师】 赫国胜；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 金融学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 已经过去近六年的金融危机至今还让世界心惊胆战，因为谁都无法预知危机效应是否完全表露，后续能否会隐藏着更大的危机爆发，在这场没有硝烟的战争中，世界各国付出的代价是惨重的。全球经济复苏疲软，不确定性因素持续增多，世界经济如何在金融领域重建平衡成为各国重要任务。面对金融危机虽有忌惮，但还是要研究与分析金融危机，在探索中改革经济金融领域的缺陷，维护金融体系稳定。在这个过程中，一个新的金融术语——影子银行跃然出现在世人面前，引起国际社会的广泛关注，因为世界金融体系的结构因他而改变了。影子银行体系,概括的说是指作为对商业银行的补充，发挥与商业银行类似的职能却不像商业银行一样受到监管体系的严密监管，游离在监管的灰色地带或者监管之外,这个非银行金融体系的发展历程是金融机构与政府监管不断博弈的过程。当前，较普遍的观点认定影子银行是金融危机爆发和货币政策失效的罪魁祸首，是系统性风险的重要来源，而监管缺失是导致危机的主要推手，因此各国开始严格审视本国金融系统,将影子银行体系作为重点研究对象,而重中之重就是对监管框架的探讨与搭建。其实，影子银行并不必然产生系统性风险，过去30余年的运行及其给美国金融体系带来的高效、高收益说明严控、制止其发展是不合理的。换句话说，影子银行是金融技术、制度创新的产物，而没有金融创新就没有金融发展。金融市场的多样化、多层级发展是提高金融效率的关键。随着金融创新的深化，跨行业、跨机构、跨市场、跨国界的金融业务交叉融合，影子银行的系统重要性开始增强，对金融体系稳定性影响越来越突出。揭开影子银行的面纱，影子银行的业务实质上是复制与延伸了金融衍生产品，释放出大量流动性，满足社会资金需求。但是开发产品的机构或个人无法凭借计算机、模型、数学公式来推算产品蕴藏的风险级数，因此增加了影子银行复杂而神秘的特性。在金融危机发生之前，西方经济发达市场被经济繁荣灌输了投资热情，忽视了风险所在，出现借贷超负荷，影子银行规模巨大，超出传统银行的2倍，而且形式多样、变化多端，极高的关联度和复杂的结构掩盖了运作实质，超出监管视力所及。而中国的影子银行与传统银行的融资模式类似，没有太复杂的关系，更多的是充当了传统商业银行的补充渠道。但随着金融市场自由化和国际化，中国的影子银行迅速发展起来，在某种程度上改变了中国的金融结构，使中国的金融领域和整个经济社会的的发展发生了根本性的改变。中国需要在金融领域重建平衡，那么需要将影子银行的经济效应、风险及监管纳入到一个框架中进行整体了解与研究，才能系统而有针对性的提出对策，达到平稳解决中国影子银行问题的目的。因此，论文以理论研究为出发点，运用数据分析、实证检验以及模型拟合等相关方法系统分析中国的影子银行，以期在全面认识中国影子银行迅速发展的动因、宏观经济效应、对传统商业银行的影响、风险本质和监管现状的基础上，全面构建适合中国国情的影子银行风险监测体系，平衡构建中国影子银行的监管框架。第一部分（第1章），概括性的提出论文的选题背景、研究意义以及研究思路和方法，重点分类总结了国内外研究现状和文献综述，提出创新与不足。第二部分（第2章），影子银行之所以能高速发展、创新产品并推动金融体系结构的变革,需要各种基础理论的支持，因此第二章，在介绍二元金融理论、监管套利理论和金融创新理论和金融抑制论的基础上，泛泛介绍影子银行的内涵与外延、运行现状并分析了影子银行内生属性的效应。第三部分（第3-5章），全面分析中国影子银行发展现状、对宏观经济的异动效应和对传统商业银行的影响。第三章，重新定义中国影子银行的概念及市场结构，着重分析了其繁荣发展的成因和主要产品的运行现状。第四章，运用灰色预测和SPSS等计量经济学统计方法拟合出GDP、M2分别对影子银行的影响的线性方程，以此来说明影子银行与经济增长的相互影响关系，运用经济学的分析方法，图解了影子银行对货币政策的冲击和影响。第五章，通过微观经济学原理，运用边界分析，找到影子银行和传统银行的最佳贷款规模的临界点，解释临界点的意义，实证分析了影子银行对传统商业银行盈利性的滞后一期影响和对信贷配给方式的影响。第四部分（第6-7章），论文的落脚点在于影子银行的风险监测与防范以及平衡构建中国影子银行监管体系。第六章，影子银行与传统商业银行具有相似的信用创造功能，但却破坏了货币乘数的作用，其潜在风险不可避免，却可以监测和防范，于是在风险压力指标视角下通过实证分析，提出对中国影子银行风险进行防范的对策建议。第七章，以理论分析和模型解析为导向，借鉴FSB、美国、英国、欧盟对影子银行的国际监管经验，在研究中国监管环境的基础上提出平衡构建中国影子银行监管体系的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Nearly six years have passed since the financial crisis，but the world still in tremblefear.Because no one knows whether the effects of the crisis fully exposed,follow-up canbe hidden even greater crisis.In this war without smoke,consideration paid isheavy.Weak global economic recovery,uncertainty continued to increase.How tobalance the word economy,the financial sector in the reconstruction of the countriesbecome an important task.The world economy is paying dearly. Despite the financialcrisis facing fear,but still need to study and analyze it.The reform of economic andfinancial field defects in the exploration in order to maintain the stability of the financialsystem. In this process, a new financial term--shadow banking suddenly appeared infront of the world. It causes widespread concern in the international community. Becauseit changes the financial structure of the word.The shadow banking system, generally refers to the outside the gray area ofregulation or supervision, but has the same function to commercial banks, The history ofits development is the game between financial institutions and government supervision.At present, the common view about shadow banking system is arch-criminal financialcrisis and makes monetary policy failure, an important source of systemic risk, and thelack of supervision is the primary contributor to the crisis. So government began tore-examine its financial system, explore the method of supervision of shadow bankingsystem. In fact, Shadow banking does not necessarily lead to systemic risk, Highefficiency, high earnings over the last30years of operation in American have adescription of strict control. So stopping its development is not reasonable. In otherwords, the shadow banking is the product of financial technology, institutionalinnovation. With the deepening of financial innovation,cross-industry,cross-agency,cross-market, cross-border financial service. The important of the shadow banking beganto increase stability of the financial system. Uncover the veil of shadow banking,thissystem is based on the maximization of profits,but the product designer himself are notfully recognize the great risk.In a replication and extension of the layers of securitizationproducts and financial derivatives, the whole society is awash with liquidity releasedfrom shadow banking system. The financial industry will be the real estate industry,. Without financial innovation, there will not be financial development. The multi-levelfinancial market is the key to improve the financial efficiency.After the financial crisis, western developed market economy is the economicprosperity of the investment enthusiasm instilled. Ignoring the risk,the borroweroverload.In developed countries, the shadow banking system has more scale complexstructure than the traditional banking system. And in various forms, be the mostchangeful, operation hidden and mostly free to monetary authorities and supervisorycontrol.Went to the supervision of sight. But in China,the shadow banking system andtraditional bank financing mode is similar, it doesn’t matter too complex, but as channelsto supplement the traditional commercial bank. As the financial market liberalization andinternationalization, the shadow banking in China developed rapidly.It changes thefinancial structure about China to some extent, and Chinese financial sector and theoverall economic and social development has been a fundamental change. However,Chinese financial system needs to set up new balance. Economic effect, risk andregulatory needs to be study as a whole,so regulatory authority can draw upcorresponding policy to settle the problem of shadow banking in China steady.Therefore, this paper takes the theory study as a starting point, analysis of theshadow banking system in China. Applying related methods of data analysis, empiricaltest and model fitting, In order to fully understand the macroeconomic effect, the Chineseshadow banking microeconomic effects, the nature of risk and regulatory situationBuilding a comprehensive risk monitoring system suitable for the situation of Chinashadow banks, improve the regulatory framework of the shadow banking in China.The first part (Chapter1), the research background, research significance andresearch ideas and methods briefly, mainly summarized research status and literaturereview at home, put forward the innovation and shortcomings.The second part (Chapter2), Shadow banks of the existence and development of thetheoretical basis and current development status. The shadow banking system can speedthe development of innovative products and promote the structure of the financial systemreform.It needs various theory supports, In the second chapter, re definition of theshadow banking scope, and operation mechanism, Introduce two yuan of financial theory, regulatory arbitrage theory and the theory of financial innovation and financialrepression theory.The third part (Chapter3-5), comprehensive introduction to the macroeconomiceffects and micro economic effects of Chinese shadow banking system. The third chapterintroduces the status about Chinese Shadow Banking.The fourth chapter, using the greyprediction and the SPSS econometric and statistical methods to study shadow bank scaleon the relationship between GDP, and M2, in order to explain the influence of shadowbanks on economic growth. Using the economic methods to illustrate the impact ofshadow banks on monetary policy. The fifth chapter, the principles of microeconomics,using boundary analysis to find the critical point of shadow banks on best loan scaleeffect of traditional bank. An empirical analysis of the impact of the shadow banking tothe traditional commercial bank’s profitability and the impact on credit rationing way,finally introduces the shadow banks to small and micro positive functions and limitationsof enterprise development.The fourth part (Chapter6-7), this paper focuses on the risk monitoring andprecaution of shadow banks and improving the regulatory system of Chinese shadowbanking. The sixth chapter, the shadow banks and traditional banks have similar creditcreation function, but it has destroyed the money multiplier effect, The potential risk isunavoidable, but can the monitoring and prevention.So the risk from the perspective ofpressure index through empirical analysis, put forward to the China shadow banking riskprevention countermeasures. The seventh chapter, comparison and analysis of FSB,American, UK, EU on shadow banking supervision, the summary of internationalregulatory orientation and main trend.Set up balance regulation suggestions about theshadow banking in China.更多还原