【作者】 张志明；

【导师】 崔日明；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 就业问题历来都是备受各国政府及学术界关注的重大经济社会难题。对正处于经济发展方式转变和经济结构转型升级关键时期的中国来说，目前的就业形势依然严峻，就业问题能否得以有效解决直接关系到经济健康持续发展和经济结构转型升级的成败，是保障和改善民生的头等大事，也是全面建设小康社会的重大战略任务。服务业被称为吸收就业的“蓄水池”，目前，服务业已成为中国吸收就业的第一大产业，因此，服务业就业问题已成为全国就业问题的核心之所在。自H-O理论提出以来，国际贸易与就业之间的关系成为了学术界和实践部门争相讨论的热点话题，且无论是理论研究还是实证研究，均认为国际贸易是影响一国或地区就业的重要因素。随着国际经济结构由“工业型经济”向“服务型经济”的转型、现代科技革命和信息技术进步及服务贸易总协定（GATS）的签订并付诸实施，全球服务贸易得以蓬勃发展，与此同时，中国服务贸易发展也取得了举世瞩目的成绩，尤其是加入WTO以来，随着一系列入世承诺的逐步兑现，中国服务贸易开放步伐更为迅速，从2004年到2012年间，中国服务进、出口额年均增长率分别为18.6%和15.1%，均显著高于世界年均增长率9.4%和9.63%，其世界排名分别由2004年的第8位和第9位上升到2012年的第3位和第5位。那么，服务贸易对中国服务业就业活动产生了怎样影响？产生影响的作用机制又是如何？这些问题的回答对于中国如何更为有效解决服务业乃至全国就业问题具有重要的理论与现实意义。对于就业活动而言，其包含就业数量和就业质量两个方面，其中，就业结构、劳动需求弹性与就业风险和工资又是就业质量的重要特征，为了系统深入地分析中国服务贸易的服务业就业效应，本文分别从就业数量和就业质量两个维度展开了理论与实证研究，需要特别说明的是，服务贸易对服务业就业质量的影响研究又主要是从就业结构、劳动需求弹性与就业风险和工资三个方面展开的，同时，为了确保理论与实证研究结论的准确性和科学性，本文的理论与实证研究大都从多维度、多视角展开。全文共有七个部分组成，第一章为绪论，介绍了文章的研究背景、文献综述、研究意义、主要内容、研究方法及创新之处；第二章为理论分析，从就业数量和就业质量两个视角分析了服务贸易的服务业就业效应，其中，服务贸易对服务业就业质量的影响研究又是从就业结构、劳动需求弹性与就业风险和工资三个视角展开的；第三章到第六章是文章的实证研究部分，分别就服务贸易对服务业就业数量、就业结构、劳动需求弹性与就业风险及工资的影响进行实证研究；最后一章是全文总结和政策启示。基于以上研究，本文得出以下几点主要结论：（1）总体而言，服务进、出口对服务业就业数量均具有显著的促进作用，进一步从企业登记注册类型、不同技术水平服务行业和劳动力熟练程度三个维度的实证检验发现，服务贸易对服务业就业数量的影响存在明显的企业、行业和技能异质性，服务进、出口对其他单位就业数量具有促进作用，而对国有单位和城镇单位就业数量的影响为负向；服务出口对中低技术服务行业就业数量具有显著的负向影响，而对中高技术服务行业就业数量的影响显著为正，服务进口对中低技术服务行业与中高技术服务行业就业数量的影响均为正；服务进、出口对中国服务业熟练和非熟练劳动力就业均产生了显著的正向影响，但其对熟练劳动力就业数量的影响作用大于非熟练劳动力。（2）服务进口不利于服务业就业结构优化升级，而服务出口则对其产生了有利影响，但具体到不同性别劳动力和不同技术水平服务行业，以上结论有所差异，其中，服务进口对男性劳动力就业结构的负向影响大于女性劳动力，对中低技术行业就业结构的负向影响大于中高技术行业。与服务进口不同，服务出口对男性劳动力就业结构的正向影响大于女性劳动力，对中高技术行业就业结构的正向影响大于中低技术行业。（3）中国服务业存在着劳动需求弹性“悖论”，即实际工资上升可使服务业劳动力需求增加。服务进口对服务业劳动需求弹性具有抑制作用，而服务出口则具有促进作用，说明服务进口降低了服务业劳动力市场的就业风险而服务出口则增强了就业风险，由于服务出口对劳动力市场就业风险的增强作用大于服务进口的抑制作用，服务贸易总体上强化了服务业劳动力市场的就业风险。从劳动力性别和不同技能水平的进一步考察发现，服务进口对女性的劳动需求弹性所产生的抑制作用强于男性，而服务出口对其所产生的提升作用弱于男性，低技能劳动力的需求弹性受服务贸易的影响最为强烈，高技能劳动力次之，中等技能劳动力最小。总之，服务贸易对男性劳动力就业风险的强化作用大于女性劳动力，对低技能劳动力就业风险具有减弱作用，而对高技能劳动力就业风险具有强化作用，对中等技能劳动力就业风险的影响难以确定。（4）服务进、出口对服务业工资水平的总体影响均显著为正,以上结论对于不同技术水平服务行业和不同登记注册类型企业则会有所差异，服务出口对中高技术服务行业工资水平的影响显著为正，而对中低技术服务行业工资水平的影响显著为负，对国有单位工资水平具有显著的促进作用，而对集体单位与其他单位工资水平的影响并不显著；与出口不同，服务进口对国有单位、其他单位及不同技术水平服务行业工资水平均具有显著的正向影响，而对集体单位工资水平的影响不显著。更多还原

【Abstract】 Employment problem has always been one of the major economic and socialproblems highly concerned by governments and academia circle. For China which is inthe critical period of development pattern restructuring and structure upgrading, Thecurrent employment situation remains severe, and effective solutions to the employmentproblem is key to the health and sustainable development, restructuring and upgrading ofChina’s economy, the top priority to protect and improve people’s livelihood, and asignificant strategic task of building a moderately prosperous society. Service industry,known as "reservoir" of absorbing employment, has become the biggest industry thatabsorbed employment at present. Therefore, the employment problem in services is thecore of national employment problem.Since H-O theory is proposed, the relationship between international trade andemployment has become a hot topic in the academic and practical departments to discuss,and both the theoretical research department and empirical research department regardthat international trade is an important factor affecting employment in a country or region.As the international economic structure transformed from the "industrial economy" to a"service economy", modern revolution of science and technology, informationtechnology progress and the general agreement on trade in services(GATS) are signedand put into practice, global trade in services got vigorous development. Meanwhile,development of China’s trade in services also has made remarkable achievements,especially since the accession to the WTO, as we gradually fulfilled a series ofcommitments we made for joining the WTO, the pace of China’s trade in servicesliberalization is more rapid, growth rate of China’s imports and exports in servicesaveraged18.6%and15.1%respectively, during the2004s and2012s, significantlyhigher than the world average growth rate by9.4%and9.63%, and their world rankingroses from eighth and ninth in2004to third and fifth in2012respectively. So, how doesChina’s trade in services impact employment in China’s services? What is the impactingmechanism? Answers to these questions have important theoretical and practicalsignificance for China to how to solve the employment problem of services and even the whole country more effectively.For employment, it includes the employment quantity and employment quality, ofwhich, the employment structure, labor demand elasticity and the employment risk andwages is important feature of the employment quality. In order to deeply andsystematically analyze the employment effects of trade in services on China’s services,this paper carried out theoretical and empirical research from the four dimensions ofemployment number, employment structure, employment risk and employment gains, atthe same time, in order to ensure the accuracy and scientificalness of the conclusions,theoretical and empirical study in this paper were launched from multipledimensions.The full text is composed of seven parts, Chapter I introduces the researchbackground, significance, review of the literature, research content, research methods andinnovation; Chapter II is theoretical analysis, analysising the employment effects of tradein services from two perspective of employment quantity and employment quality, studyabout influence of trade in services to employment quality is carried out from theemployment structure, labor demand elasticity and the employment risk and wages;Chapter III to Chapter VI is empirical research, making empirical research on the impactof trade in services on the employment quantity, employment structure, labor demandelasticity and employment risk and wages; the last chapter is the full text summary andpolicy recommendations. Based on the above research, this article draws the followingmain conclusions:1.In general, the effect of imports and exports in services on the number of servicesemployment is significant Positive, further empirical resesrch shows from enterpriseregistration type, the different technology level of service industry and Labor proficiency,the impact of trade in services on employment quantity is of significant heterogeneity inbusinesses, industries and skill, imports and exports in services have promoting effectson employment of other units, while the impact on the number of owned units and urbanunits employment is negative; exports in services reduces the number of jobs in lowtechnical services sector, and the impact on the number of jobs in high-tech servicesindustry is significantly positive, imports in services has positive impacts on the numberof jobs in low-technology services industry and the high-tech service industries; importsand exports in services have positive impacts on the employment of both skilled and unskilled labor in China’s services, but its impact on the employment of skilled labor isgreater than which on unskilled labor.2. Imports in services has negative influences on employment structure optimizationof services, while exports in services produces a favorable impact, but these conclusionsdiffer when specifically referred to different gender and different skill levels of labor,among which the negative impacts of imports in services on employment structure ofmale labor is greater than that of female labor, and the negative impacts on employmentstructure in low-technology industry is greater than which is in the high-tech industries.Unlike imports in services, the positive impacts of exports in services on employmentstructure of male labor is greater than that of female, and its positive impact on theemployment structure in high-tech industries is greater than the low-tech industries.3. Labor demand elasticity "paradox " exists in China’s services,namely that risingreal wages can increase the demand for labor in services. Imports in services hasinhibitory effect on labor demand elasticity in services, and exports in services plays arole in enhancing labor demand elasticity in services, indicating that imports in servicesdecreases the employment risk of labor market in services, exports in services enhancesemployment risk, due to the promoting effect of exports in services is greater than theinhibition effect of imports in services, trade in services in general strengthens theemployment risk in services labor market. Further study finds that the inhibition effect ofservice imports on elasticity of labor demand for women is stronger than man from laborgender and different skill levels, while the promotion effect of exports in services isweaker than men, and demand elasticity of low-skilled labor affected by trade in servicesis most intense, followed by high-skilled labor, and medium-skilled labor is minimum. Inshort, the strengthening effect of trade in services on the employment risk of male laborforce is greater than that of female, trade in services weakens the employment risk oflow-skilled labor, while strengthens the employment risk of high-skilled labor force, andits impacts on the employment risk of medium-skilled labor force is difficult todetermine.4. The overall impacts of imports and exports in services on the services wages aresignificantly positive. These conclusions vary from different technical level of serviceindustry and differen tregistration types of business, impacts of exports in services on the wage level of high-tech industry is significantly positive, while the impact on low-technology industry is significantly negative, wage level of the state-owned unit havebeen significantly promoted, while collective units and other units are not significantlyinfluenced; and unlike exports, imports in services has a significantly positive impact onwage level of state-owned units, other units and the service sector of different technicallevel, but does not significantly affect wage level of collective units.更多还原