【作者】 李静秋；

【导师】 林木西；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 国民经济学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 20世纪80年代，全球经济发展趋势转向区域经济一体化，进入90年代，东亚地区的区域经济合作日益成为学界和政界所关注的焦点。作为全球最大的发展中国家，在全球遭受金融危机影响，经济走向低迷的状况下，中国充分发挥了引擎作用，使其与世界各国之间交流与合作的广度与深度迅速提升。在东北亚区域内，中国东北地区以其在政策、区位以及经济等方面所具有的比较优势，在其沿海经济带、沿边经济区同周边国家和地区的贸易、投资等多个领域的合作不断增加，彼此之间的友好沟通和交流更加频繁。因此，本文首先对中国东北地区在扩大与东北亚区域合作中的比较优势进行了阐述和分析，并利用计量经济学中相关性分析对其扩大与东北亚区域合作的现状进行了实证分析。伴随着东北亚区域合作进入前所未有的发展机遇期，中国东北地区对外开放与其发展的融合和促进日益明显。中国的迅速崛起在给东北亚区域合作带来积极因素、为各邻国带来中国红利的同时也使美日韩等国感到了空前的威胁和压力，加之历史和政治上等多方面的原因，导致东北亚大国之间的政治社会关系错综复杂，问题和矛盾较为突出。本文接下来分析了中国东北地区扩大与东北亚区域合作的制约因素。将合作博弈理论与非合作博弈理论相结合，对制度因素进行了博弈分析。另外，对东北亚区域内各成员国的发展水平参差不齐等经济方面的制约因素和地缘因素等进行了阐述，指出在现阶段东北地区扩大与东北亚区域合作所面临的问题。同时对东北地区自身存在的对外开放水平不高，体制机制尚不完善、缺乏统一的协调机制，经济发展过于分散、产业结构的升级和优化有待于进一步加强、高端人才紧缺，人才分布不均等方面的障碍因素进行了分析。接下来，本文对中国东北地区扩大与东北亚区域合作的路径进行了一一探讨。第一，东北地区各省建立自由贸易先导区，加强同东北亚区域内各成员国之间的合作与互动。第二，加强东北地区的沿边合作的开发，其中包括吉林长吉图经济带、黑龙江绥芬河沿边经济区以及“东边道”、“西边道”经济带的开发开放。第三，加强东北地区的跨境合作，主要阐述了“一桥一区两岛”的开发与合作。第四，加强包含蒙古在内的东北四省区的联动机制的建立，为中国东北地区的全面开放奠定基础。本文接下来对东北亚区域全面合作对各国和地区产生的福利影响进行了分析，运用Walras的可计算一般均衡模型（CGE）来分析和探讨东北亚区域各国组成关税同盟或建立FTA所带来的福利效应。运用全球贸易分析模型（GTAP）及其数据库，将数据递推理论与静态机制相结合，设定中国、日本、韩国、蒙古、俄罗斯、东盟、欧盟以及其他国家关于建立FTA及其相关领域的税收冲击政策，指出其所带来的宏观经济效应，逐一对各国（组织）做出相应的分析和判断，以此说明中国东北地区扩大与东北亚区域合作的经济意义和现实意义。最后提出东北地区扩大与东北亚区域合作的政策措施，指出中国建立自由贸易区进程中所应采取的政策措施，着重积极促进中日韩双边、三边合作，从而更好地推动东北亚区域的全方位合作。另外，对东北地区各省区扩大与东北亚区域合作提出相应的政策建议，辽宁省主要是沿海经济带和腹地经济的发展，吉林省主要是图们江区域的发展，黑龙江省则主要是沿边地区的发展。本文对东北地区扩大与东北亚区域合作问题的研究，将进一步明确东北地区沿海经济带的发展定位，明确东北四省区整体互动发展方向，具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。本文共九章，除绪论外，主要分为五个部分:第一部分学术命题，即第2章：国内外文献综述。从传统区域合作视角、国外自由贸易区视角以及东北亚区域合作方面对国外相关文献进行了梳理，同时从后危机时代东北亚格局、中国建立自贸区以及新形势下的自贸区建设三个方面对国内相关文献进行了阐述，以此作为论文分析的基础和前提。第二部分理论演绎，即第3章：中国东北地区参与东北亚区域合作的相关理论。对本文所涉及的比较优势理论、合作博弈与非合作博弈论的相关概念、理论基础、自由贸易（园）区的相关理论以及一般均衡模型的相关理论加以阐述，以明确本文所要研究的对象。第三部分现状分析，即第4、5、6章：中国东北地区参与东北亚区域合作的比较优势及现状分析。第4章阐述中国东北地区所具有的政策优势、区位优势以及经济优势，说明中国东北地区与东北亚区域合作的重要性和必要性。第5章通过对中国东北地区与东北亚区域各国在贸易、投资、能源、文化等各个领域的合作情况加以分析，运用计量经济学中的相关性分析方法对其进行实证分析，论述影响中国东北地区参与东北亚区域合作的各项因素的相关性及原因。通过4、5两章的分析，第6章分析了影响中国东北地区参与东北亚区域合作的制约因素，通过构建博弈模型，从理论的角度分析东北亚区域各国在区域合作的战略选择过程中对自身利益诉求以及整体利益最大化的权衡和考虑，提出制约中国东北地区参与东北亚区域合作的制度因素，同时指出制约东北亚区域合作的经济因素和地缘因素。第四部分发展方案及前景分析，即第7、8章：第7章提出了中国东北地区扩大与东北亚区域合作的路径，即建立自由贸易先导区、加强沿边合作与跨境合作、推动东北四省区联动机制等。第8章通过运用CGE一般均衡模型分析了各国在区域合作中所产生的经济效应和得到的福利，分析了东北亚区域全面合作的福利影响，指出中国东北地区扩大与东北亚区域合作的发展方向及必要性。第五部分政策建议，即第9章：在前面各章所得结论的基础之上，结合我国在东北亚区域合作新环境下所面临的机遇和挑战，提出了中国东北地区扩大与东北亚区域合作的一些具有可操作性的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the1980s, the global economic development trend toward regional economicintegration, in the90s, the regional economic cooperation in Northeast Asia isincreasingly becoming the focus of academics and politics. As the world’s largestdeveloping country in the global financial crisis, under the condition of the economicdownturn, China fully give play to the role of the engine, with the breadth and depth ofthe exchanges and cooperation between countries all over the world quickly. In northeastAsia area, the northeast China has comparative advantage in its policies, location, andeconomic aspects, in the economic zone and the coastal economic belt, border trade andinvestment increase with neighboring countries and regions, even more thecommunication and exchanges friendly between others. Therefore, this paper firstexpounded and analyzed northeast China’s comparative advantage in northeast Asiaregional cooperation, then by using correlation analysis in the econometrics on theexpand in the empirical analysis on the current situation of northeast Asia regionalcooperation. With the development of northeast Asia regional cooperation into anunprecedented opportunity, China’s opening to the outside world and its development inthe northeast of fusion and promote increasingly apparent.China’s rapid rise in the northeast Asia regional cooperation bring positive factors,to bring China’s neighbor dividends as well as countries such as America, Japan and feelthe unprecedented threat and pressure, combined with the historical and political aspectsof reasons, lead to political complex social relations between northeast Asian countries,the problems and contradictions. The rest of this article analyzes the constraints toexpand in northeast Asia regional cooperation in northeast China. The cooperative gametheory and non-cooperative game theory, the combination of institutional factors for thegame analysis. In addition, the development level of each member in the area ofnortheast Asia is uneven and economic factors, points out that in the present stageinvolved in the problems facing northeast Asia regional cooperation in northeast China.Analyzed under the background of international environment, the various factors thatrestrict the course of its development process, including: Own existence in the northeast of opening to the outside world level is not high, system and mechanism is notperfect,lack of unified coordination mechanism, decentralizing economic developmentand upgrading of industrial structure should be further to strengthen and optimize,high-end talent shortage, personnel distribution is not equal in terms of internal factors.Next, this article discussed one by one the path of cooperation in the northeast Asiaregion which the northeast china expand in. First, the pilot provinces to establish freetrade zone in northeast China, with the northeast Asia regional cooperation andinteraction between member states. Second, strengthen the development of the northeastborder cooperation, including Jilin Changjitu economic zone, Heilongjiang Suifenheborder economic zone, and “Dongbiandao” and “Xibiandao” economy belt’sdevelopment and opening-up. Third, to strengthen cross-border expand in North-East ofChina, mainly elaborated “a bridge two island area”’s development and cooperation.Fourth, strengthen the linkage mechanism of four provinces including Mongolia, fullyopen to lay the foundation for the construction of northeast China.This article then analyzes the prospect of comprehensive cooperation of northeastAsia area, using Walras computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze anddiscuss northeast Asia countries to form a customs union or the welfare effects of FTA.Global trade analysis model (GTAP) and its database, the data recursion theorycombined with static mechanism, set in China, Japan, Korea, Mongolia, north Korea,Russia, the association of south-east Asian nations (ASEAN), the European Union andother countries about the FTA and its related impact tax policies, pointed out its bringsthe macroeconomic effect of each of the (organization) makes the corresponding analysis,and judgment, suggesting that expand opening to the outside world, in northeast China innortheast Asia regional cooperation economic significance and realistic significance.Finally proposed to expand in the northeast Asia regional cooperation in thenortheast of policies and measures, points out that China should be taken in the processof setting up free trade area of the policies and measures to actively promote bilateral andtrilateral cooperation among China, Japan and Korea, to better promote all-roundcooperation of northeast Asia area. In addition, the provinces to expand in the northeastAsia regional cooperation in northeast China put forward the corresponding policyrecommendations, mainly coastal economic belt of Liaoning province and the development of hinterland economy, mainly the development of the Tumen river area,Jilin province, Heilongjiang province, mainly the development of border area. The maintarget of coastal economic belt of Liaoning province to establish the free trade zone ofnortheast Asia regional cooperation policy Suggestions are put forward. In this paper, thenortheast region to expand in the study of the problems of the northeast Asia regionalcooperation, and will further define the development orientation of the coastal economicbelt in northeast China, the overall interactive development direction clear three northeastprovinces, has important theoretical significance and practical significance.In this paper, chapter seven, in addition to the introduction, mainly divides into fiveparts:The first part of the academic thesis, namely, chapter2: literature review at homeand abroad. From the perspective of the traditional regional cooperation and foreign freetrade area and generalizes the northeast Asia regional partner in the face of foreignliterature, as well as from the post-crisis era, pattern of northeast Asia, China, as well asestablishing a free trade zone under the new situation of CAFTA construction threeaspects of domestic related literature, the paper analysis the basis and prerequisite.The second part of the theoretical deduction, that is, chapter3: in northeast China toexpand in the relevant theory of northeast Asia regional cooperation. For this articleinvolves the comparative advantage theory, cooperative game and non-cooperative gametheory relevant concepts, theoretical basis, the relevant theories of (garden) free tradezone, and the related theory of general equilibrium model, in order to make clear theobject of this article are to study.The third part of the status analysis: in chapters4,5,6, to participate in thecomparative advantage of northeast Asia regional cooperation in northeast China and thepresent situation analysis. Chapter4in this paper, the area of northeast China policyadvantages, location advantages and economic advantages, in northeast China and theimportance and necessity of northeast Asia regional cooperation. Chapter5through tothe northeast China and northeast Asia countries in trade, investment, energy, culture andother fields of cooperation situation analysis, using the correlation analysis method ofeconometrics to empirical analysis, discusses the influence in northeast China to expandin the correlation of various factors and the reasons of the northeast Asia regional cooperation. Through the analysis of4,5, two chapters, chapter6analyzes the influencein northeast China to expand in the restricting factors of northeast Asia regionalcooperation, and by building a game model, from the Angle of the theory analysis ofnortheast Asia countries in regional cooperation in the process of the strategic choice tomaximize their own interests and overall interests weigh and consideration, puts forwardrestriction in northeast China to expand in the institutional factors of northeast Asiaregional cooperation, and also points out that the northeast Asia countries vary in thelevel of development, and economic factors such as technical cooperation.The fourth part development plan and prospect analysis, namely chapter7,8:chapter7proposed to expand in the path of the northeast Asia regional cooperation innortheast China, namely, to establish free trade forerunner area, strengthening thecooperation of the border areas and cross-border cooperation, promote the fournortheastern provinces linkage mechanism, etc. Chapter8by applying CGE model ofgeneral equilibrium analysis of the economic effect produced by countries in the regionalcooperation and get benefits, analyzes the prospect of northeast Asia regionalcomprehensive cooperation, points out that in northeast China to expand in thedevelopment direction and necessity of northeast Asia regional cooperation.Section5policy Suggestions, that is, chapter9: on the basis of the conclusions inthe front chapters, combining our country in the northeast Asia regional cooperationfacing the opportunities and challenges under the new environment, put forward toexpand in the northeast Asia regional cooperation in the northeast of China someoperable policy Suggestions.更多还原