【作者】 张婷玉；

【导师】 崔日明；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 在多边贸易体制发展举步维艰，区域经济一体化迅速发展，世界经济格局悄然变化的战略背景下，美国在全球的主导地位受到冲击与挑战，“地位衰弱”与亚太一体化进程中“被边缘化”的担忧和焦虑促使美国转向区域经济一体化建设，并在全球范围内发起自贸区攻势，掀起了以TPP和TTIP为代表的标榜全面的、高水平的、面向21世纪的新一轮自由贸易区浪潮，意图为美国实现政治经济诉求搭建新平台。美国作为新一轮自由贸易区浪潮的推动者，赋予了自由贸易区更多的政治、经济、外交含义，致使此番自由贸易区浪潮呈现出新的变化与特点：谈判议题体现高水平、高标准、向深度一体化发展的特点；谈判伙伴囊括了全球主要发达经济体和众多新兴经济体，波及范围之大，影响领域之广前所未有；谈判目标则致力于打造全球贸易体系的新规则，巩固其不可撼动的全球领导者地位。由此可见，自由贸易区已不再是单纯的对外贸易政策，而是美国获取国家利益乃至实现其全球战略的重要平台。因此，美国自由贸易区战略的深入推进将对中国乃至世界经济格局产生举足轻重的影响。在这样的战略背景下，本文对美国自由贸易区战略的发展进程进行全面回顾和梳理，剖析美国自由贸易区的国家战略诉求，洞察美国自由贸易区战略蕴含的战略思维和战略逻辑，这对未来我国实施自由贸易区战略具有重要的理论价值和现实指导意义。为了对美国自由贸易区战略进行全景式地解读，本文首先从国家战略的高度出发，利用政治经济分析范式，深入研究美国自由贸易区战略与国家战略诉求的政治经济关联；在此基础上，进一步梳理和透析美国自由贸易区在全球的战略布局和战略诉求；之后，结合经验分析和实证检验对美国自由贸易区产生的经济效应以及非经济效应进行绩效评估，并分析了不同国家对美国经济影响的差异性；此外，考虑到美国在全球举足轻重的战略地位，本文进一步对美国自由贸易区产生的影响和未来发展态势进行分析和前瞻性预测；最后，综合全文分析，得出美国自由贸易区的战略性启示，并提出了中国自由贸易区战略总体规划和实施路径。具体而言，本文的主要研究内容和研究结论包括：第一，美国自由贸易区战略已经超越了经济范畴，被赋予了更多的政治、安全、外交等战略诉求，高度体现美国国家利益，成为美国实现国家战略诉求的重要途径和平台。第二，根据美国自由贸易区在全球的战略诉求，本文将美国自由贸易区在全球的战略布局划分为五大区域，并在此基础上对每个区域内的自由贸易区进行梳理和总结，探究其背后蕴藏的国家战略诉求与战略思想。第三，对美国自由贸易区战略绩效进行分析和实证检验。首先利用美国与自贸区伙伴国的详实数据对美国自由贸易区的传统经济效应即贸易效应、投资效应进行经验分析与实证检验；其次从政治思维、顶层规则、国家安全、战略能源等四个层面对美国自由贸易区的非经济效应进行综合分析，实现了对美国自由贸易区战略绩效在经济和非经济层面的全面解析。第四，对美国自由贸易区战略影响及发展态势进行分析和前瞻性预测。在前文研究的基础上，分析了美国自由贸易区战略对全球经济、全球格局、全球贸易机制、发展中国家等多方面产生的影响，考虑到美国与中国微妙的大国关系，单独分析了美国自由贸易区战略对中国所带来的影响；此外，为了进一步了解美国自由贸易区战略的未来发展动向，本文还对美国自由贸易区发展趋势以及面临的困难与掣肘进行了分析和前瞻。最后，对中国自由贸易区发展现状及未来战略规划进行分析与研究。研究美国自由贸易区的目的是为了给中国自由贸易区的发展提供有益的战略性启示和建议。为此，本文基于当前中国自由贸易区的发展现状，结合美国自由贸易区的经验与启示，提出了中国自由贸易区战略总体规划和实施路径。更多还原

【Abstract】 On the strategic background of the multilateral trading system running into thedeveloping predicament, the regional economic integration developing rapidly, and theglobal economic pattern changing gradually, the global dominance of U.S. is affected andchallenged. The weaker position and being marginalized in Asian-Pacific region makeU.S. promote regional economic integration and launch a new wave of FTA all over theworld. TPP and TTIP are typical representatives, which are flaunted as comprehensive,high-level and ’facing to21st century’. With the help of this new high-level FTA, U.S.intends to build a new platform to fulfill political and economic aspirations.As the promoter of the new FTA, U.S. has given more meanings of politics,economics, diplomacy to FTA, which presents new changes and features. The negotiatingissues reflect the new features of high-level, high standard, and to the depth of integration.The negotiating partners cover the global major developed and emerging countries, andsuch a large scale is unprecedented. The negotiating goal is to establish new rules in theglobal trading system and strengthen its leadership in the world. Thus, the FTA is nolonger simple foreign trade policy, but the important platform for U.S. to acquire itsnational interests and fulfill its global strategy. Therefore, with the advance of U.S. FTAstrategy, it will greatly affect China and the whole world in the future. Under thisbackground, this paper will introduce U.S. FTA strategy comprehensively, dissect itsstrategic aspirations, and have an insight into its strategic thinking and logic. Therefore,the study will provide important theoretical value and practical guidance for China tocarry out the FTA strategy in the future.In order to analyze U.S. FTA strategy comprehensively, from the perspective ofnational strategy, the paper firstly studies the political and economic association betweenU.S. FTA strategy and its national strategic aspirations by using political economyanalysis paradigm. Based on this, the paper further sorts and analyzes the strategic layoutand the strategic aspirations of U.S. FTA strategy in the whole world. Then by usingempirical analysis and test, the paper makes a performance evaluation of the economicand non-economic effects that U.S. FTA strategy has generated, and distinguishes thedifferent effects that different partner countries have made on U.S.. In addition, Considering of the important strategic position of U.S. in the whole world, the paperanalyzes the influence of U.S. FTA strategy and forecasts its development in the future.Finally, based on the analysis above, it will conclude some strategic enlightenments toChina FTA strategy, and put forward General Programme and implementation path forChina FTA strategy. Specifically, the main contents and conclusions of this paper are asfollows:Firstly, U.S. FTA strategy has gone beyond purely economic category, and it hasbeen endued with more strategic aspirations in the fields of politics, security, diplomacy,etc. It also highly embodies the national interests. The FTA has become an important wayand platform for U.S. to fulfill its national strategic aspirations.Secondly, according to the national strategic aspirations of U.S. FTA strategy in thewhole world, the paper will divide all the U.S. FTAs into five major regions, and thenprobe into its strategic thinking and national strategic aspirations by reviewing andanalyzing all those FTAs in the five regions.Thirdly, the paper makes a performance evaluation of the economic andnon-economic effects that U.S. FTA strategy has generated by using empirical analysisand test. At first, it uses the detailed data of U.S. and its FTA partners to analyze thetraditional trade effects and investment effects; and then, the paper comprehensivelyanalyze the non-economic effects of U.S. FTA strategy from four aspects of politicalthinking, top-level rule, national security and energy strategy. In this way, the papercarries out comprehensive analysis of both economic and non-economic effects of U.S.FTA strategy.Fourthly, the paper analyzes the influence of U.S. FTA strategy and forecasts itsdevelopment in the future. On the basis of the study, it gives an analysis of the effect thatU.S. FTA strategy will make on the global economy, the global pattern, the global tradingsystem and developing countries, etc. Considering the subtle relationships between Chinaand U.S., the paper separately analyzes the effect that U.S. FTA strategy will make onChina. In addition, in order to have a deeper understanding of its development in thefuture, the paper also forecasts future trend and the difficulties of U.S. FTA strategy.At last, the paper analyzes the current situation and future strategic programme ofChina FTA strategy. The purpose of studying U.S. FTA strategy is to provide strategic beneficial enlightenments and suggestions for China. Thus, based on the currentdevelopment of China FTAs, and the experience and enlightenments of U.S. FTA strategy,the paper puts forward General Programme and implementation path for China FTAstrategy.更多还原