【作者】 侯坤；

【导师】 王厚双；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 在经济全球化迅猛发展和各国间经济相互依赖日益增强的今天，中美经贸关系联系越来越紧密，影响甚至改变着两国乃至全世界政治经济格局的变动。作为世界经济排名前两位的大国，中美互为对方的第二大贸易伙伴，美国是中国的第一大出口市场和第一大贸易顺差国；中国是美国的第三大出口目的地和第一大进口来源地，美国还是中国的第五大投资市场和第三大技术进口来源国。然而中美贸易的发展并非一帆风顺，双方也发生不少摩擦和冲突，特别是近年来，中国经济的快速发展与“和平崛起”使美国不得不重新审视对华整体战略；而金融危机的爆发导致的美国经济衰退，使美国国内贸易保护主义力量抬头，美国干预中国对外贸易政策的需求与迫切感更为增强，中美间贸易问题“政治化”的倾向越来越明显。在此背景下，中美间贸易政策的互动与博弈呈现出不同与以往的新动向与新趋势。因此，深入研究中美两国大国间的贸易现象背后的贸易政策决策与形成机制，有助于我们加深对错终复杂的中美贸易关系的认识，更好地预测与把握美国对华贸易政策的发展方向，以在不断变化的国际体系中占据主动。本文从中美贸易问题“政治化”的现象出发，探讨贸易现象背后政策的制定过程与原理，采用贸易政策的政治经济学的分析方法，从“体系——国家——社会”三维的分析范式出发构建贸易政策决定的综合分析框架，并据此对美国对华贸易政策、中美双边贸易政策的互动博弈进行解构，进而就具体贸易政策进行了相关的规范分析与实证分析。本文由绪论和正文五章共计六部分组成。第一章绪论部分对选题背景与意义、国内外相关研究的进展进行综述，进而对论文的研究内容、研究方法以及可能的创新进行了预设，并对论文进一步研究的方向进行了思考；第二章为贸易政策政治经济学分析的相关理论，按照体系—国家—社会分析范式，笔者构建了美国对华贸易政策研究的综合分析框架，并就贸易政策制定的理论模型进行了重构；第三章对中美贸易关系的发展和美国对华贸易政策的演变进行考察，揭示不同阶段美国贸易政策制定与形成的决定因素是什么，从而为全文的分析奠定了逻辑起点，为后续的实证分析提供了理论命题；第四章为美国对华贸易政策的决策机制的分析，并以中国入世和PNTR问题为例，分析PNTR立法通过的政治经济过程与决定性因素是什么；第五章是以人民币汇率问题为例，对美国对华汇率政策的决定因素进行实证分析。通过时间序列法对影响人民币汇率变化的有关政治、经济因素的变量构建Var模型，分别通过脉冲检验和方差检验得到了各变量对人民币汇率升值影响的周期长短与程度大小的结论；第六章章为国际体系格局变动下美国对华贸易政策的新动向，包括美国为“重返亚洲”推进的TPP协议、美国重振制造业战略将对中国产生哪些可能的影响，最后得出结论和建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of globalization and the growing economicinterdependence among countries, the economic relationship between China and UnitedStates is becoming more and more closely, which had influenced or even changed theinstitution of these two countries and the whole world. As the first and second largesteconomies of the world, China and U.S. has become the second largest trading partnerwith each other. The United States is China’s second largest trading partner, largest exportmarket and the first big trade surplus countries; While China is America’s third largestexport destination and the largest source of imports, the United States is China’s fifthlargest investment market and the third largest technology import source. But more thanplain sailing, there also existed a lot of frictions and conflicts in the process of the tradedevelopment between China and the United States. China’s rapid development and a"peaceful rise" in the world forced the United States to review its overall strategytowards China; under the condition of the economic recession caused by the financialcrisis and the rising of protectionism domestically, United States tended to inflict moreintervention in China’s foreign trade policy, which cause the increasingly tendency of"politicising" on trade issues between China and the United States. Under thisbackground, the Sino-U.S. trade policy has interacted in quite different ways and newdirections. On this account, further study on the decision-making mechanism hiddenbehind the two countries trade phenomenon has great theoretical and practicalsignificance. It can deepen our understanding to the complicated Sino-U.S. traderelations, help us to grasp and predict the right direction of Sino-U.S. trade, so as tooccupy the initiative in the changing of the international system.Starting from the phenomenon of "politicisation" of trade problem between Chinaand the United States, this paper examines into the mechanism of decision-making oftrade policy hidden behind the trade phenomenon. Based on the theory of politicaleconomy of trade policy and the three dimensional “system-state-social" analyticalparadigm, the paper a comprehensive framework to analyze the U.S. trade policy towardChina, deconstruct the interactive trading game between American and China, and has carried on the qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis on several typicalAmerican trade policy toward China.This paper consists of six parts including one chapter of introduction and fivechapters in the main text.The introduction part to the selected topic background andsignificance, domestic and foreign related research progress were reviewed, then thepaper the research contents, research methods and possible innovation of thepresupposition, and the paper further research direction was thinking;The first chapter isrelated to the economic analysis of trade policy and political theory, according to thesystem-state-social analysis paradigm, the author build the comprehensive analysis ofAmerican trade policy toward China research framework, and reconstructed thetheoretical model of trade policy; The second chapter on the development of sino-ustrade relations and the evolution of American trade policy toward China, revealing thedifferent stages of the American trade policy and what is the determinant of formation,thus laid a logical starting point for the analysis of the full text, for subsequent empiricalanalysis provides the theoretical proposition;The third chapter is the analysis of thedecision-making mechanism of American trade policy toward China, and China’s wtoaccession and PNTR issue, for example, analysis of PNTR legislation through theprocess of political and economic and what is the decisive factor;The fourth chapter isbased on the issue of RMB exchange rate, for example, against America’s China policydecision factors for empirical analysis. Through the method of time series related topolitics, economic factors that result in the change of RMB exchange rate of the variableto build Var model, separately for each variable is obtained by pulse test and variance testthe impact of currency appreciation of the renminbi cycle length and the size of thedegree of conclusion;Fifth chapter for the international system structure changes underthe new tendency of American trade policy toward China, including the United States to"return to Asia" strategy will promote the TPP agreement, the United States to revivemanufacturing which may impact on China, finally come to the conclusion andsuggestion.更多还原