【作者】 周忠科；

【导师】 王立杰；

【作者基本信息】 中国矿业大学（北京） ， 管理科学与工程， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 本论文以我国煤炭行业的安全发展为对象,研究影响我国煤炭行业安全的宏微观因素和主客观原因,以提出构建我国安全生产长效机制的对策措施。论文首先分析了影响我国煤矿安全事故的主要社会发展因素和行业发展因素及其关系,通过统计数据从经济指标、产业结构、就业结构、城市化进程以及医疗、教育和科技方面分析了影响安全事故变化的主要因素,并探析了导致安全事故的深层次原因。然后,基于灰色关联分析运用数理统计工具构建了我国煤矿安全事故与社会发展因素的定量化模型。同时从行业视角分析了煤炭产销、产业结构和生产技术等指标对我国煤矿安全的相关关系。其次,通过委托代理与博弈理论研究了基于内部监察和外部政府与社会监督的安全监管博弈空间和策略,从行为视角深入分析多方主体达到动态均衡的安全监察和管理体制。再次,以事故致因模型为对象对其影响安全的事故隐患和系统风险进行分析识别,构建了基于事故致因理论的煤矿安全微观影响因素指标体系和预警分析流程。最后,论文从产业结构、法制环境、科技教育、科技政策和内部管理等方面提出了实现我国煤矿安全生产长效机制的对策措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this thesis, coal safety management was studied from the multiple view. The macro and micro factors, subjective and objective factors were analyzed to ensure long-lasting work safety mechanism. Firstly, the social and industrial development which influenced the safe production were introduced. On the basis of analyzing the actuality of the economic indexes, industrial structure, employment structure, urbanization process, and medical treatment, education and technology, the main factors were analyzed form their statisitc data. Secondly, According to methods of Grey Relation Analysis and Correlation Analysis, the quantitative relation model of coal production accidents and social development parameters was established, and then the correlation among coal production and marketing, industrial structure and production technologies was demonstrated. Thirdly, according to different interest groups, performance evaluation system based on Game Theory was classified into internal game and triple game. The optimal strategies to regulate various interest groups and perfect supervision which made them equilibrium were put forward. Fourth, Micro factors system and early-warning process based on accident-causing was proposed, which influenced by human behavior, natural factor and management. At last, for supporting persistent effect mechanism of coal safe production, the main causes of coal accidents were identified, some policies and advises for safety administration were given.更多还原