【作者】 张谦；

【导师】 朱东晓； 黎建强；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 在全球性能源危机与环境保护的大前提下,传统能源产业的发展受到了约束,为了减少环境污染、降低碳排放,新能源产业越来越成为能源发展的重要领域。近些年随着风力发电技术的不断发展,在电力能源领域,风电成为最主要的电力新能源发展方向。中国作为世界风电装机容量第一的国家,已经形成了完整的风电产业链,随着风电相关技术的不断进步与风电发电成本的不断降低,使得风电产业进一步的发展壮大。大量风电场的建成投产,在为社会提供了大量清洁能源的同时,也要考虑自身运营过程中的收益管理问题,通过对风电运营收益管理的研究,能够进一步提高风电运营收益,使风电运营实现经济、社会、环境等多方面收益的平衡发展,从而促进风电行业更好更快的发展。风力发电由于其可再生、零污染的特点,成为电力新能源主要的发展领域,但是由于风电运营内外部环境的变化和风能的不可控性、随机性使风电运营收益具有一定的不确定性。通过对风电运营不确定性收益管理的研究,一方面可以梳理清楚影响风电运营收益的主要因素,另一方面通过有效的理论与模型研究,探寻风电运营中不确定性因素的规律,避免风电运营中的不确定性给运营收益造成的负面影响,从而提高风电运营的收益水平。论文首先分析了风电发展的现状,然后对风电运营的概念、不确定性理论和收益管理理论进行了理论研究,在此基础上提出了风电运营不确定性收益管理方法的研究框架；论文将风电运营收益划分为内部的经济性收益和外部的社会性与环境性收益。内部经济性收益的研究主要从运营成本与运营收入两方面展开：运营成本方面对风电运营的各类成本进行了详细分析,并针对运营收益对成本中主要的不确定性因素变动的敏感性进行了分析；运营收入方面首先对风电功率预测进行了研究,因为风电功率一方面是影响风电运营收益最主要的不确定性因素,另一方面是分析风电定价与未来收益的基础；然后对风电定价问题进行了研究,通过风电定价的研究能够为未来竞争环境下风电运营提供必要的定价理论与模型方法；在此基础上,综合风电运营收益的内部经济性收益与外部社会性、环境性收益对风电运营的综合收益评价问题进行了研究,从而解决了风电运营收益管理中综合收益水平难以衡量的问题。最后,综合上述研究成果,设计开发了新能源风电运营收益管理信息系统。论文主要研究以下几方面内容：(1)论文对国际国内风电产业的发展现状进行了分析,对国际风电发展的特点进行了研究,根据国内风电发展的现状对中国风电发展的特点与政策措施进行了分析,为论文进一步研究风电运营收益管理提供了现状分析基础。(2)全面分析了风电运营的基本框架以及风电运营的重要指标,研究了不确定性理论,然后对收益管理的理论进行了研究,对基于预测、数量、价格、评价的收益管理方法进行了分析,进而提出风电运营不确定性收益管理方法的主要研究框架,为论文的进一步研究提供了理论基础。(3)影响风电运营收益的重要因素之一是运营成本,本文深入分析了新能源风电的运营成本构成,从投资建设成本、运行维护成本、运营财务成本等几个方面对风电运营的成本问题进行了深入分析,针对不确定性成本的变化情况,以中国西部某风电场为例,对风电运营收益对不确定性成本变动的敏感性进行了实证分析。(4)风电机组的发电量是影响风电收益的主要来源,风电机组发电量的多少主要由风电输出功率决定,风电运营收益的不确定性最主要的原因就是风电功率输出的不确定性,对风电功率进行准确预测一方面能够减少这种不确定性对风电运营收益的影响,另一方面是分析风电价格与风电收益水平的基础,因此研究风电功率预测是风电运营不确定性收益管理研究的重要组成部分。论文首先分析了风电功率预测与收益管理的关系以及功率预测的意义与方法,提出了基于X-R质量控制图的BPNN风电功率预测模型和基于模糊群组LS-SVM模型的风电功率预测模型,并对两种模型进行了实证分析,结果证明模型具有良好的预测能力。(5)风电定价问题研究是风电运营不确定性收益管理的重要组成部分。风电价格研究是以风电功率预测结果为基础,通过理论与模型研究,为风电场提出一种基于运营收益优化的风电定价策略制定方法,进而增加风电运营收益,提高运营收益管理水平。由于我国竞争的风电市场尚未形成,风电定价的研究是在一个假设的环境下模拟完成的。论文首先分析了风电运营收益与风电价格的关系,然后对国内外风电定价机制现状进行了分析,提出了考虑碳排放与旋转备用的收益优化风电定价模型,并通过改进的蚁群算法求解,然后进行了算例分析并提出了相应的风电定价策略。(6)风电运营的收益不仅包括经济方面,还包括社会与环境方面,如何对风电运营的收益进行全面客观的评价,是风电运营收益管理问题的另一个重要方面。论文对风电运营不确定性综合收益评价进行了研究,首先设计了风电运营不确定性收益综合评价的主要过程,从经济、社会、环境等多个方面系统分析了风电运营综合收益的影响因素,构建了适应风电运营特点的风电运营综合收益评价的指标体系,设计了基于Nash均衡主客观组合赋权法的综合评价模型,并以此为基础进行了实证分析。(7)设计开发了风电运营收益管理信息系统,结合论文的理论与模型方法研究,从系统需求分析、系统设计、系统开发技术与环境、系统功能、系统测试与部署等几个方面,全面完整的介绍了该系统的设计与开发过程。该系统包括了运营成本分析、功率预测、价格模拟分析、综合收益评价等功能,系统可以为风电运营收益管理工作提供辅助决策与技术支持,实现风电运营收益管理的智能化与信息化。系统中的部分功能已经在宁夏电网运营收益管理工作中试用,并取得了良好的应用效果。论文的研究成果能够为风电运营不确定性收益管理提供理论依据,能够为风电运营收益的计算、分析、预测与评价提供模型方法,能够为风电运营收益的分析与决策提供软件系统辅助支持,论文的研究具有较好的理论价值与现实意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the premise of global energy crisis and environmental protection, the traditional energy industry development has been constrained while new energy industry is encouraged in order to reduce environmental pollution andcarbon emissions.The continuous development of wind power technology in recent years makes it the main direction of new energy development. As the top one country in terms of wind power installed capacity, China formed a complete industrial chain of wind power. The continueprogress of technologies and the drop of cost in wind power generation make the wind power industry promising for further development and growth. Since a large number of wind farms have put into operation, they will have to consider their own revenue while they provide a large number of clean energy at the same time. The wind farmrevenue management research in this paper will be helpful for them to realize balanced development amongeconomic, social, environmental and other aspects, which will certainly contribute to the wind power industry development.As a renewableenergy, wind power has zero emission, which make it the major area of new energy power development. The revenue of wind power company has some uncertaintydue to uncontrollable changes and randomness of their internal and external environment. By researching the uncertainty revenue management of wind power, one can distinguish clearly the main factorsimpacting wind power operating income. on the basis of these effective theory and models, the law of wind power operationuncertainty cab be explored to avoid negative impact on operating income from the wind power uncertainty, which will increase the level of wind power operating revenue.Firstly, thispaper analyzes the wind power development status, and then, research is made on the wind power operation concept, uncertainty theory and revenue management. Then,this paper proposed the framework of the wind farm uncertainty revenue management research, thewind operating income is divided into internal revenue and external revenue including social and environmental gains. Research for internal economy gains begin from two aspects consisting of major operating costs and operating income. For the major operating cost, a detailed analysis of various costs are applied,also the sensitivity analysis are applied on the major uncertainty factors;For the operating income, Firstly, the wind power output prediction were studiedbecause it is not only the major uncertain factor but also the basis for future earnings calculation.The studies on power output prediction will reduce the impact by wind power uncertainty it can also provide support for futurewind power gainsanalysis.Secondly, the wind power pricestrategyhas been studied, this provides the necessary pricing theory and modeling methods for future competitive environment of wind farm. On this basis, the consolidated wind power operating income evaluation model considering the internal economy gains, the external social and environmental gains are conducted, which solve the difficulties in wind power operator revenue managementconsolidated income levels evaluation. Finally, combining the research, this paper design and develop the new energy wind power revenue management information system. The main contents are as the following aspects:(1)International and domestic wind power industry development are analyzed. Firstly, the international wind power development characteristics are studied, Secondly, Chinese wind power development characteristics and policy measures were analyzed according to the domestic wind power development status. All these provide the foundation for further study of wind power revenue management in this paper.(2) A comprehensive analysis for the basic framework andimportant indicators of wind power operationis applied, then, the uncertainty theory and revenue management theories are studied. Then, revenue management methods based on forecasts, quantity, price, evaluationare analyzed. Finally, the main research framework is presented, which provides a theoretical basis for further research.(3) One important factor influencing wind power operating income is the operating costsis.This paper made anin-depth analysis of the new energy wind power operating cost structure consisting the investment and construction costs, operation and maintenance costs, operational finance costs and other aspects of wind power operating cost. With an eye to the changes the uncertain cost, empirical sensitivity analysis on uncertainty cost is applied on a real case happened to a wind farm in western China.(4) The wind power output is a major factor impacting the wind power revenue. The uncertainty of the wind power is also the source of itsuncertainty. An accurate prediction on wind power output can not only reduce this uncertainty but also provide a basis for future wind power revenue analysis. Therefore, the research of wind power prediction is an important component of revenue management research section. This paper presented two forecasting methods, one is BPNN based on X-R control chart and the other is LS-SVM model based on fuzzy group theory andempirical analysis of two models are applied, results show that the model has good predictive ability.(5) The price research of wind power is an important part of uncertainty revenue management. Price study is based on the wind power prediction results. Through theory and model research, this paper proposed a price strategy for thewind farmbased on the revenue optimization, thus increasing wind power operating income, and the operatinglevel. As China’s wind power market competition has not yet formed, the price of wind power is simulated in a hypothetical environment. This paper firstly analyzes the relations between wind power operating income and wind power price, then analyzed the current situation of price in domestic and foreign market, proposed wind power pricing methods considering carbon emissions and spinning reserve. Problem is solved by improved ant colony algorithm,finally, a numerical example is applied.(6) Wind power operating income includes not only economic factor, but also social and environmental aspects. A comprehensive and objective evaluation of wind power operating income is also an important aspect ofrevenue management problems. This papers studied comprehensive evaluation for wind power uncertainincome. Firstly, the primary comprehensive evaluation process for wind powerrevenue uncertainty is designed,Then, all the factors related in wind power operationsrevenue are canalizefromeconomy, social, environmental and other aspects, and an comprehensives index system adapt to the characteristics of wind power operating is built. Finally, a comprehensive evaluation model combining subjective and objective weighting based on Nash equilibriums created and an empirical analysis is applied.(7) This paper design and develop a wind power operating revenue management information system. It combines the theory and modeling methods thesis in this paper, comprehensive and complete introduction of the system design and development process is made from the system requirements analysis, system design, system development technology and the environment, system functions, system testing and deployment, and several other aspects. The system provides revenue management decision support and technical support towind power operators to realize intelligence and information management. Some features of the system has been applied in Ningxia grid operator revenue management for the trial, and achieved good effect.Dissertation research is able to provide a theoretical basis for wind power operating revenue management, to provide modeling methods for wind power operating income calculation, analysis and evaluation, to provide software system auxiliary support for wind power operating income analysis and decision-making this paper has good the theoretical value and practical significance.更多还原