【作者】 胡庆辉；

【导师】 谭忠富；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,我国经济快速发展,取得了举世瞩目的成就,国家GDP总产值已经超越日本,成为仅次于美国的世界第二大国。但伴随经济快速发展的同时,我国能源消耗量也与日俱增,且受到以一次能源为主的能源结构影响,以CO2、S02、NOx及雾霾等为代表的污染排放量也逐年增加,国内环境状况逐渐下降,但作为发展中国家,经济发展仍是主要任务,这导致我国经济、能源与环境置换的矛盾越来越明显。电力产业作为我国的主要能源供给单位,在行业内进行节能减排对于缓解国家整体能源、环境与经济间的矛盾有着重要的意义。分析我国的电源结构可知,火电机组发电占总发电量比重仍然高于80%,这使得电力系统发电能耗和污染物排放对于国家整体能源与减排环境有着决定性的影响,研究如何改善我国电源结构,增加清洁能源发电,降低发电能耗、污染物排放与发电成本有着重要的理论和实践意义。结合国内外研究可知,在发电机组间开展发电置换,能够有效的降低火力发电,增加可再生能源发电,改善电源结构,尤其当水电大规模并网时,在降低系统发电能耗、污染物排放量的同时,还能够降低系统整体的发电成本。因此,为了解决我国经济、能源与污染物排放量间的发展窘境,在未来,更加深入的开展机组间发电置换有着重要的意义。但传统的机组发电置换往往不能兼顾发电置换节能、减排和低成本的要求,这就需要改变现有发电置换模型,引入一种新的发电置换匹配依据,撮合机组参与发电置换交易,本文把能耗、排放、发电成本统一在一个等效当量成本,即发电绩效成本上面,然后以发电绩效成本作为主要的发电置换依据,构建各类型发电置换交易模型,本文主要的研究工作有以下几个方面：(1)总结了国内外学者在机组间发电置换交易研究方面的相关成果,介绍了我国当前发电置换的基本理论、基本模式、经济补偿机制,对比分析了不同发电模式的经济与环境效益,为下文的研究奠定了理论基础。(2)针对传统发电置换交易模式的不足,提出了机组发电绩效的基本概念,介绍了绩效评价指标的基本内容,并从节能、减排和低成本等方面构建了机组发电绩效综合评价指标体系,并提出了基于集成赋权的理想物元可拓模型,对机组发电绩效进行评价,通过算例分析验证了所提方法的有效性和适用性。(3)在对火电机组间发电置换可行性论文的基础上,分别构建了基于发电绩效的机组发电置换与效益分配模型、基于多任务委托代理的机组发电置换优化模型和基于环境与成本约束的机组发电调度多目标优化模型,算例分析显示,以发电绩效作为发电置换匹配依据,更能够兼顾节能、减排和低成本等方面的要求,多任务委托代理模型适用于火电机组间发电置换优化模型。(4)从水电资源条件、水火电机组发电能耗与成本等方面论证了水火发电机组发电置换的可行性,分别构建了基于发电绩效和基于多目标CVaR模型的水火发电置换优化模型及水火电机组两阶段调度优化模型,算例分析显示,多目标CVaR模型能够有效的反应风险偏好程度对系统调度结果的影响,水火电机组两阶段调度优化模型能够降低系统发电能耗、污染物排放和成本,提升系统发电绩效水平。(5)介绍了我国风电发展的现状、问题并提出了相应的解决途径,引入机会约束规划办法,构建了风火电机组发电绩效置换优化模型,提出了基于熵权模糊满意度的模型求解算法,算例分析显示,风火电机组发电绩效置换模型能够得到更为均衡的系统调度方案,反映不同置信水平对系统发电调度的影响,具有适用性。(6)从全寿命周期的视角分析了风电、火电与抽水蓄能电站的联合运行效益,引入LHS方法对风电出力情景进行模型,分别构建了基于MLSAD方法和Mean-CVaR方法的多类型发电机组调度优化模型,并通过算例分析对比分析了两种模型在求解多类型发电机组调度模型的有效性,结果显示,随着风电预测功率误差方差的增大和置信水平要求的提高,系统运行成本风险均有所增加,所提方法与实际相符,适用于多类型发电机组调度优化问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform and opening, China’s economic has experienced a rapid development and got remarkable achievements. Its GDP has surpassed Japan and become the second largest country. As economic developing, energy consumption keeps increasing. Energy supply mainly rely on primary energies, so pollutant emission growing rapidly, such as CO2、SO2、NOX and so on, which makes environmental situation becomes worse. As a developing country, economic development is the main task, which puts enormous pressure on the relationship between economic development, environment protection and energy supplying. Electric power industry is an important energy supply industry in China, so its energy saving and pollution reduction is of great signification to the whole country’s sustainable development. When analyzing China’s energy structure, we can find that thermal units’output occupies more than80%of the total power generation. This situation makes electric power industry plays an important role in the progress of achieving China’s emission reduction targets. How to ameliorate China’s power structure? How to increase clean energy generation? How to decrease energy consumption, pollutant emission and cost during energy generation progress? All these questions are worth studying and practicing. According to research statues, we know that conducting power generation replacement between units can effectively decrease thermal power generation and increase renewable energy power generation. Especially during large-scale grid connecting of hydropower, system’s energy consumption rate, pollutant emission and cost are all decreased. To ease the plight of economic, energy and pollutant emissions, we should emphasis on carrying out energy generation replacement. However, conventional replacement model cannot balance energy saving, pollutant emission reduction and low cost demands. And a new power generation replacement matching basis is in urgent need. Therefore, this paper puts energy consumption, pollutant emission and generation cost on an equivalent cost namely generation performance costs. And on this basis, establishes several kinds of power generation replacement model. The main work of this article can be summarized as following:(1) Reviewed research results on power generation replacement, and introduced China’s basic power generation theories, basic trade patterns and economic compensation mechanisms. Then compared different generation pattern’s economic and environmental benefits, and established the theoretical foundation.(2) To make up for the deficiencies of conventional power generation replacement trade mode, this paper put forward the basic concept of generation performance and its basic content. Then take energy-saving, pollutant emission reduction and low cost into consideration and put forward a comprehensive evaluation index system for power generation performance. This paper established an empowerment-based integration ideal element extensional model, which can evaluate power generation performance. A simulation certificated its validity and applicability.(3) Based on research results of papers that on thermal power generation replacement feasibility, this paper established units’power generation and benefits distribution model based on power generation performance, power generation replacement optimization model based on task agency, and power generation scheduling model based on environment protection and low cost. And its simulation result shows that when using power generation performance as matching criterion, we can get an optimal result to meet requirements from energy saving, pollutant emission reduction and low cost. And multitasking principal-agent model suits power generation replacement among thermal units.(4) this paper demonstrated the feasibility of power generation between thermal power and hydropower units. And then established multi-objective thermal-hydro power CVaR model based on power generation performance, and thermal-hydro power two-period scheduling optimization model. Their simulation results show that the multi-objective CVaR model can reflect the influence of risk appetite on the result of system scheduling more effectively. And the two-period model can reduce energy consumption, pollutant emission and cost, which can improve system’s power generation performance.(5) Introduced current situation of wind power in China, put forward existing problems and solving methods. This paper pulled in chance-constrained programming approach, and established thermal-hydro power generation performance replacement optimization model, and corresponding solving algorithm that based on entropy fuzzy satisfaction. Its simulation result shows the thermal-hydro power generation performance replacement optimization model can get a more balanced system scheduling scheme and reflect effect of different confidence levels for power generation scheduling system.(6) Pulling in LHS method to establish multi-type power generation optimization scheduling models respectively based on MLS AD method and Mean-CVaR method. And this paper used a simulation to compare two models’effectiveness. The result shows that as error variance of wind power prediction increasing and confidence level improving, system operation cost increasing. That means the methods put forward are along with real condition, so these models can suit multi-type power generation units scheduling optimization problems更多还原