【作者】 刘硕；

【导师】 黄文杰；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 发电集团的电煤供应链长期以来存在诸多矛盾,最突出的是煤电价格之争和运力不足两点。这些矛盾为电煤供应链的协同一体化发展带来了不利的影响。自2012年下半年以来,电煤价格持续下降,国家发改委也正式于2013年实施电煤并轨制度,电煤供应链的协同一体化发展出现了新的契机。另外,2014年初发布的国家煤炭物流规划和铁路运价调整等政策,也进一步说明了国家对煤炭供应链的重视,对电煤供应链协同一体化发展的相关问题进行深入研究非常有必要。本文的主要研究目标是通过对发电集团电煤供应链协同一体化中的若干关键问题进行深入研究,得到一些有效的理论模型与方法,包括电煤价格预测模型、发电集团电煤供应链利益分配模型、综合性的电煤供应链风险管理框架和发电集团电煤供应链协同一体化的信息化方法等。围绕上述目标,本文的主要研究内容包括：1)界定发电集团电煤供应链的概念和主要特性,提出全文的主要研究结构和关键问题。2)结合煤炭在北方下水港的港口库存量、工业增加值、煤炭生产规划、社会用电量、动力煤期货等价格影响因素,以环渤海动力煤价格指数为研究样本,建立了基于相关向量机的电煤价格预测模型。3)通过分析发电集团电煤供应链各参与方的利益诉求,建立了电煤供应链的收益共享模型,并从分散决策和集中决策等角度进行了阐述,给出了收益共享契约下的电煤供应链模型,并结合公司实例进行了分析验证。4)综合考虑发电集团电煤供应链的上下游各参与企业,通过归纳整理及总结分析得到电煤供应链中的风险因素,并据此对电煤供应链的风险情况进行了评估,提出弹性电煤供应链的一体化风险管理框架。5)建立电煤供应链协同一体化的信息系统模型,重点包括从煤炭资源信息、运力信息和电厂信息等角度入手建立基础数据结构,以集中采购为主建立信息系统的协同工作流程,智能化统计决策模块等内容。6)从实际案例入手,建立发电集团电煤供应链的协同管理模型,研究其协同一体化的合作模式。通过对上述内容的深入研究,有助于实现发电集团电煤供应链的协同一体化发展,具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Power generation group of power coal supply chain has many contradictions for a long time. The two most prominent contradictions are the coal price and the capacity insufficience. These contradictions bring adverse effect to the development of power coal supply chain collaborative integration. Since the coal price has continued to fall, and the NDRC formally implemented the integration system of coal and electricity in2013. The development of coal supply chain collaborative integration turns out a new opportunity. In addition, the national coal logistics planning and railway freight rate adjustment policies released in the beginning of2014also illustrated the state’s emphasis on coal supply chain. It is essential for the development of power coal supply chain collaboration integration issues.The main research goal of this paper is getting some effective theoretical model and method by going into the key problems of power coal supply chain collaboration integration, including power coal price forecast model, power generation group’s power coal supply chain profit distribution model, comprehensive supply chain risk management framework and electric power generation group’s coal supply chain collaboration integration informatization methods, etc.Around these goals, the main research contents of this paper include:First, defined the concept and main features of power generation group power coal supply chain, and then put forward the full text research structure and the key problems. Second, using the bohai sea power coal price index as the research sample, established the power coal price forecast model. Third, provided is given under the power coal supply chain model based on the revenue sharing contract. Fourth, summarized the risk factors of coal supply chain, assessed the coal supply chain risks, and put forward the integrate risk management framework of flexible power coal supply chain. Fifth, set up integrate information management model of flexible power coal supply chain based on the elemental information including coal resource information, capacity information and power generation enterprise information. Sixth, researched the power generation group integrate cooperation pattern from actual cases.The above in-depth study can help analyze the development of power generation group coal supply chain’s integration.更多还原