【作者】 郭皓池；

【导师】 牛东晓；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 电力需求侧管理作为智能电网建设中的重要组成部分,是实现全社会合理节能节电的重要手段,是支持国民经济和电力工业可持续发展的重要途径和必然选择,对全社会的节能减排工作意义重大。随着智能电网建设的不断深入,针对电力需求侧管理的内容体系及管理方法研究得到了很好的拓展与改进。电力需求侧管理从传统的负荷管理及节能管理体系中不断发展创新,在智能电网建设中提出了更高的发展要求。本文立足于研究智能电网中基于负荷分析的需求侧管理体系发展及相关理论方法,包括以下几个方面：(1)全面梳理了智能电网的发展进程及电力需求侧管理的基本内容体系,并提出了拓展智能电网中基于负荷分析的需求侧管理体系发展及相应管理手段。(2)针对智能电网电力负荷需求分析预测方法及优化体系管理问题进行了深入研究,提出了基于模型库优选理论的电力预测思想,并构建了基于组合预测理论的中长期电力负荷需求预测方法,开展了基于模型优选的短期日最大负荷需求预测模型比较研究,进行了实证分析。根据预测结果,提出优化电力负荷特性的调节建议方案。(3)针对智能电网中基于电力负荷需求分析的虚拟电厂优化管理及发展问题进行了深入研究,分析了虚拟电厂发展的重大价值,构建了虚拟电厂综合效益评价指标体系,提出了基于网络层次分析法的评价模型,并进行了实证研究。(4)针对智能电网中基于电力负荷需求分析的分布式能源接入发展问题进行了深入分析,研究了智能电网中分布式能源接入发展的相关问题,并提出了基于定位—模式—路径一体化的优化管理发展建议。(5)针对智能电网基于电力负荷需求分析的用电设备节能改造问题进行了深入研究,分析了研究用电设备节能改造的重要意义,构建了综合评价指标体系,提出了基于物元可拓协同层次分析法的评价模型,并进行了实证研究。(6)针对智能电网发展建设的电力需求侧管理发展进行了总结展望,从特高压电网工程建设、电动汽车发展利用等方面进行了探讨。论文的研究为拓展智能电网中基于负荷分析的需求侧管理体系发展提供了很好的借鉴,为提升电力需求侧管理水平提供了很好的理论及方法支撑。更多还原

【Abstract】 Power demand side management (DSM), a crucial part in the smart grid construction, is an important means to achieve reasonable social energy saving and the necessary choice to support national economy and sustainable development of power industry. It also promotes the energy-saving and emission-reduction of the whole society.With the deeper construction of smart grid, the study of DSM in content system and management methods has been greatly expanded and improved. The continuous development and innovation of DSM is facing a higher demand for development. Focused on the development of the DSM system and relevant theories based on load analysis in smart grid, the following contents are explored in this study:(1) The development process of smart grid and the content system of DSM are explained, and the system of DSM and relevant management means in smart grid are expanded.(2) Methods of Power load demand forecasting in smart grid and the optimization of system management are deeply studied. A load forecasting idea based on model base optimum selection theory is proposed, and a mid-long term load demand forecasting method based on combined forecasting theory is built, and comparison of the models of short-term daily maximum load demand forecasting method based on model optimum selection theory. Empirical study are given to put forward advisable plans for optimizing load adjusting.(3) The development of virtual power plant and its optimization management based on load demand analysis in smart grid is studied. The value of virtual power plant is analyzed, the evaluation index system of virtual power plant is established, and the evaluation model based on network AHP is proposed. Empirical study is also implemented.(4) The issue of the connection of distributed energy based on load demand analysis in smart grid is deeply analyzed, and an optimized management system based on the integration of Location-Pattern-Path.(5) The issue of energy-saving reform of electric equipment based on load demand analysis in smart grid is studied. The importance of energy-saving reform of electric equipment is analyzed, the evaluation index system of construction energy conservation is established, and the evaluation model based on matter element extension model combined with AHP is proposed. Empirical study is also implemented.(6) The development of DSM in smart grid is summarized and prospected in the area of extra-high voltage power grid construction and electric vehicle utilization.The research in this paper provides reference for expanding the DSM based on load analysis in smart grid, and sound theoretical support for improving DSM standard.更多还原