【作者】 刘树良；

【导师】 乞建勋；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 随着电力体制改革方向的明朗和深入,发电市场将发生明显的变化,在“厂网分开,竞价上网”改革的形式下,火电运维项目市场竞争将非常激烈。改革以后的火电运维项目经营模式如何定位、电价如何确定、市场模式如何建立、如何争取电力市场确定以后的竞争,有实践经验的高级管理人员如何进行决策,诸多问题已经摆到了管理者的面前。要解决这些问题,仅靠经验,已不能满足眼前的发展需要,然而,利用现在的科技发展成果,展开各种方式的仿真研究,既省钱省力,又能满足现实的急需。因此在我国展开火电运维项目财务决策仿真的研究是客观的需要,也是现实的选择。研究科学的、合理的、适用的火电运维项目财务决策仿真的理论、方法以及开发相应的软件系统,是当今火电运维项目财务决策仿真理论研究的一个重要核心问题,也是目前国际上管理科学研究的前沿问题之一,对提高我国火力发电公司管理人员的决策水平、促进我国电力工业的发展有着重大的理论价值和实用价值。本文将火力发电项目分为三个子项目,包括火力发电设计项目、火力发电工程建设项目以及火力发电运行维护项目即火电运维项目。本文主要针对火电运维项目的财务决策进行研究。论文通过分析当前国内外企业经营发展模拟决策系统的研究现状,在进行文献研究、理论研究和实地调研的基础上,分析了对火电运维项目财务决策仿真理论与实现研究的必要性,介绍了当前学术界关于火电运维项目财务决策仿真理论研究的状况及不足,提出了火电运维项目财务决策仿真的概念和研究内容,分析了影响火电运维项目财务决策的主体、客体、媒体因素；利用粗糙集理论构建了火电运维项目财务决策仿真指标体系；设计了火电运维项目财务决策仿真的总体框架、具体框架和数据库。尤其是在决策模拟、系统论等基本理论的指导下,为了实现信息实体化的目标,本文研发了火电运维项目财务决策仿真实物沙盘系统。以容量和电量订单变动为手段,建立了虚拟的由垄断到完全竞争的“电力及电煤交易中心”。用实物形态表现出了电力生产的过程。在研发成功的火电运维项目财务决策仿真实物沙盘系统的基础上,首次利用决策模拟原理开发具有火电运维项目特色的、适用于火力发电公司高级管理人员决策的软件系统。建立了火电运维项目财务决策仿真信度和效度指标体系,对火电运维项目财务决策仿真进行了信度和效度验证。本文主要创新点：1.提出了火电运维项目财务决策仿真的概念,利用粗糙集原理对火电运维项目的决策主体、客体、媒体的指标进行属性约简,构建了火电运维项目财务决策仿真的指标体系。2.给出了火电运维项目管理人员进行财务决策的辅助决策方法。为火电运维项目管理人员在电力交易、电煤交易以及投资等重大财务决策提供参考,使其决策得到优化。3.建立了虚拟的“电力交易中心”与“电煤交易中心”。以实物形态模拟出了电力采购与电煤采购的市场化交易,并研发出了火电运维项目财务决策的实物模拟和软件仿真系统。4.在改进的熵权法原理的基础上,建立了火电运维项目财务仿真决策系统的经济效益综合评价模型,开发了火电运维项目财务仿真决策经济效益综合评价系统。更多还原

【Abstract】 With clear and depth direction of electric power system reform, electricity generation market will undergo significant changes. In the form of "separation between the firm and the net, bidding on-line" reform, the competition of thermal power operation and maintenance projects’market will be fierce. Many problems have been put to the front of the managers, such as how to position business model, how to determine the price, how to establish market mode, how to determine the future electricity market competition and how practical experience of senior management personnel to make decisions. To solve these problems, only relying on experience, can not meet the development needs of the immediate, however, the using of current technological development, expanding the variety of ways in the simulation study not only saves money and effort, but also meets the real need. Therefore, a study of financial decision-making simulation of thermal power operation and maintenance projects is an objective needs, but also a realistic option. Research the scientific, reasonable and suitable thermal power company’s business development decision-making theory, method and development of corresponding software system is an important core problem of the current thermal power company decision theory research and one of the frontier problems of Management Science research in the world. This research can improve thermal power company managers’personnel decision-making level, promote the development of our country’s electric power industry and have important theoretical value and practical value.This paper divided thermal power generation projects into three sub-projects, including design projects, engineering construction projects and operation and maintenance projects. This paper mainly studies thermal power operation and maintenance projects’ financial decisions.Based on literature research, theoretical research and field investigation, through analysis of the current status of domestic and international business development decision-making simulation system, this paper analyses the development of thermal power company management decision-making simulation theory and the necessity of the research on the implementation. This paper describes the conditions and inadequate research of the academic theories about thermal power operation and maintenance projects decision-making simulation theory and proposes thermal power operation and maintenance projects’ decision-making simulation concept and research content. This paper also analyzes the factors of subject, object, media that could influence thermal power company developments’ decision and uses rough set theory to establish thermal power operation and maintenance projects’ decision-making simulation index system. This paper designs overall framework, specific framework and databases of thermal power operation and maintenance projects’ decision-making simulation system. Especially under the guidance of the decision-making simulations, systems theory and other basic theory, in order to achieve the goal of information entities, the paper developed a kind sandbox system of thermal power operation and maintenance projects’ decision-making simulation. Taking the capacity and power orders changes as the means, this paper establishes virtual "electricity trading center" from monopoly to complete competition. The real morphology shows the process of electric power production. On the basis of successfully developed thermal power plants business decision simulation sand table system, this paper uses the decision simulation theory for the first time to develop the decision-making simulation software system that have the characteristics of thermal power plants and apply to thermal power plant managers. Establish reliability and validity index system, verify the reliability and and validity of thermal power operation and maintenance projects’ decision-making simulation.Main innovation of this paper:1. Proposes the concept of thermal power operation and maintenance projects’ decision-making simulation, using rough set principle attribute reduction indicators of thermal power operation and maintenance projects decision-making body, object, media. Construct indicator system of thermal power operation and maintenance projects’decision-making simulation.2. Gives assistant financial decision methods for thermal power operation and maintenance projects’ managers. To provide a reference for thermal power operation and maintenance projects’ managers in major financial decisions such as:electricity trading, coal trading and investment, in order to make decisions optimized.3. Establishes a virtual "power trading center" and "coal trading center". Simulate the market trading of power procurement and coal procurement by physical form, and developes a physical modeling and software simulation system of thermal power operation and maintenance projects’decision-making.4. On the basis of an improved method of Entropy Weight, this paper establishes a comprehensive economic assessment model of thermal power operation and maintenance project decision-making simulation model, develops a thermal power operation and maintenance project decision-making simulation system.更多还原