【作者】 魏亚楠；

【导师】 牛东晓；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 随着智能电网的发展和节能减排要求的提高,清洁能源发电比重正不断提高。风力发电和太阳能发电具有发电随机性强、可调节能力弱,地域性强、集中度高等特点,提高我国电网对清洁能源接入的适应性,寻求技术经济效益最优的解决策略,加强智能电网建设被认为是解决风电和光电上网问题的关键。本文提出的智能电网中多种发电模式联合调度模型及效益评价研究,通过分析清洁能源发电的必要性、智能电网的要求、大规模清洁能源发电并网的优势和问题,提出清洁能源和传统能源等多种发电模式联合调度的方式,对于我国节能减排目标的实现、电网安全稳定运行、电网和发电企业经济效益的提高具有积极的作用。在大量数据资料分析整理的基础上,系统分析我国电源结构与电网的发展现状及面临的问题,研究智能电网的提出对电源和电网的影响,同时对本文主要研究的几种发电模式,如火力发电、风力发电、太阳能光伏发电等,进行技术经济对比分析,为电力预测、联合调度及效益评价做铺垫；针对风力发电和太阳能光伏发电不稳定性的特点,分别提出了服务于联合调度的基于GABP神经网络的预测模型进行风电输出功率的预测,服务于联合调度基于拟境知识挖掘的自适应神经网络预测模型进行光伏发电输出功率的预测,最后提出了服务于联合调度基于FHNN相似日聚类的组合预测模型进行智能电网电力负荷预测研究；根据我国节能减排的要求,结合风火电联合运营的特点,建立了智能电网中风火电联合运营节能减排调度模型,提出了基于KKT和量子遗传算法的多目标决策智能算法进行模型的求解；根据风力发电和太阳能光伏发电的特点,探讨风光互补混合供电系统模式,建立了风光互补智能调度模型,提出了改进的混沌免疫遗传算法进行模型的求解；综合分析火力发电、风力发电和太阳能光伏发电的特点,建立了一套火、风、光联合运营的电力调度模型,提出了改进的量子粒子群优化算法进行调度模型的求解；综合考虑智能电网中混合电力系统联合调度的特点,从社会效益、环境效益、经济效益、安全性等几个方面进行综合分析,建立了效益评价指标体系,提出了基于Vague集和D-S证据理论的效益评价模型,进行智能电网中多种发电模式联合调度效益评价；针对以上提出的预测模型、调度模型和效益评价模型,分别进行了实证分析和验证。多种发电模式联合调度符合我国智能电网的发展方向,有利于达到节能减排的效果,通过系统深入的分析,针对目前我国多种发电模式联合调度管理中存在的问题,提出了相应的管理方案和建议。本文的电力预测模型、调度模型和效益评价模型,对我国智能电网的发展、多种发电模式联合调度管理具有理论与实践指导借鉴意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of smart grid and improvement of energy conservation and emissions reduction, clean energy proportion is increasing. Wind power and solar power are both stochastic and intermittent with strong regional. About how to improve access adaptability, operation flexibility and stability of clean energy and to seek optimal economic benefit strategy, strengthen construction of smart grid is considered to be one of the keys.Through analysis of necessity of clean energy generation, requirement of smart grid, advantages and problems of large-scale grid-connected clean energy, the paper puts forward joint dispatch mode of diversified power generation. The proposed theory and application of joint dispatch of diversified power generation in smart grid has a positive role to achieve the goal of energy conservation and emissions reduction, the safe and stable operation of power grid, to improve economic benefits of electric power enterprise.Through sort huge data resources, the paper analyzes development situation and problems of China’s power structure and power grid, research influence on power supply and power grid of smart grid. At the same time, based on technical and economic comparison and analysis of mainly studied power modes, such as thermal power, wind power, solar photovoltaic power generation and so on, the paper establishes groundwork for power forecast, dispatch, and benefit evaluation. Aiming at characteristics of wind power, the paper proposes wind power output forecast model based on GABP neural network. Aiming at characteristics of photovoltaic power, the paper proposes photovoltaic power output forecast model based on adaptive neural network combined with scenario simulation knowledge mining. Finally the combination forecast model based on FNN similar day clustering for smart grid power is proposed. According to characteristics of joint wind and thermal power system, the paper establishes energy saving and emission reduction dispatch model of joint wind-thermal power operation in smart grid. Multi-objective decision-making intelligence algorithm based on KKT and quantum genetic algorithm is established to solve the model. According to characteristics of the wind power and photovoltaic power generation, hybrid wind-photovoltaic power supply system is researched and intelligent wind-photovoltaic power dispatch model is established. The improved chaos immune genetic algorithm is used to solve the model. Comprehensive analysis of thermal power, wind power and solar photovoltaic power generation, the dispatching model of joint thermal-wind-photovoltaic power operation is set up, the improved quantum particle swarm optimization algorithm is put forward for dispatch model. Considering characteristics of hybrid power system in smart grid, comprehensive evaluation index system including social benefit, environmental benefit, economic benefit and security is established. The comprehensive evaluation model based on vague set and of D-S evidence theory is proposed to evaluate comprehensive benefit of joint operations in smart grid. According to above presented forecast model, dispatch model and comprehensive evaluation model, respectively, the empirical analysis are verified. Joint dispatch of diversified power generation conforms to the developing direction of smart grid in China, and is conducive to achieve the result of energy conservation and emissions reduction. By system analysis, management solutions and suggestions about joint dispatch of diversified power generation are put forward.The proposed power forecast model, dispatch model and benefit evaluation model have guiding significance in theory and practice aspect for development of smart grid in China, management of joint operation of diversified power generation.更多还原