【作者】 高毅蓉；

【导师】 林玳玳；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 产业经济学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 目前,二元结构、产业结构等结构性矛盾仍是我国经济发展中的主要矛盾,经济结构调整成为现阶段经济运行的主要特征。就业结构优化、产业结构升级及二者动态适配问题已得到党中央国务院的高度重视,《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划的建议》指出：目前经济发展中不协调和不可持续问题依然突出,产业结构不合理、就业总量压力和结构性矛盾并存。中国就业结构失衡问题不仅表现在三次产业就业人数占就业总数的比例不合理,还表现在区域结构不平衡。由于劳动力要素在区域间的流动数量和频次的增加,地区间就业的产业结构分布产生不均衡的态势,区域就业结构优化与区域产业结构升级的协同发展是客观规律要求。区域劳动力的质和量的需求在区域产业结构调整过程中需要不断调整,以促使区域就业结构得到优化和升级,与调整中的区域产业结构动态匹配适应。我国区域产业结构的持续升级,必然要求区域就业结构持续性优化与之协同匹配。区域就业结构优化与产业结构升级的动态适配已成为各区域政府最急需解决的实践难题。从理论研究方面来看,综合分析国内外学者的相关研究成果可以发现,尚未有现代经济理论没有系统地研究就业结构区域差异形成的内在规律,以及宏观的区域就业结构优化与区域产业结构升级动态协调匹配的机制。目前国内研究就业结构的文献较多,但是对于区域就业结构的研究大多局限于对某一地区就业结构数据的描述性统计和简单趋势预测上,缺乏系统性和理论性。因此,全面系统地从区域差异的视角研究就业的产业结构,对于促进区域产业发展和就业水平的协调发展,找出真正阻碍我国区域就业结构优化的因素并提出措施具有重要意义。本文运用劳动经济学、产业经济学、区域经济学、新经济地理学及计量经济学等学科的相关理论,借鉴已有文献的研究成果,利用相关统计年鉴的宏观数据及实地调查的微观资料,采用多元回归模型、结构突变理论、收敛性分析等实证分析方法,从区域差异的视角对中国就业的产业结构进行了系统研究。本文的研究内容主要包括：(1)通过突协整的方法与工具,利用单位根模型对产业结构与就业结构的协整性进行计量分析,判断就业的产业结构的结构突变类型,探索产业结构与就业结构协同发展的途径。(2)把握我国区域就业结构演进的特殊性,对我国各地区的就业的产业结构进行分类研究,探讨就业结构演进过程中的区域差异问题,通过就业结构的区位商、区域差异变动系数、就业弹性、就业结构偏离度和相对劳动生产率的区域比较分析探析就业结构演进的影响因素。通过区域差异比较研究来揭示就业结构演进的基本特征,并得到相关的经济政策启示。(3)对我国不同类型区域的就业结构收敛性问题进行泰尔指数检验、σ收敛性检验和β收敛性检验,以探讨我国区域之间是否存在就业的产业结构的收敛性以及收敛类型。(4)综合分析系统内外各种因素对产业间劳动力配置的影响,判别区域就业结构变动的影响因素和作用机制。(5)讨论我国就业结构的合理性和就业结构调整的可能性问题,构建既有利于经济增长又有利于扩大就业的就业结构优化调控模型,探讨我国就业结构优化的方向和目标,提出对地方政府宏观调控政策和区域调整的框架和具体对策措施。本文对于我国就业的产业结构的区域差异问题研究提出了新的研究视角和研究框架,具体的创新点体现在：(1)采用结构突变模型描述我国就业的产业结构演进过程,对就业结构与产业结构之间的偏离程度与人均GDP的协整性和稳定趋势进行验证,探索就业的产业结构优化水平与经济增长之间的协整关系,为构建就业的产业结构优化的比例关系和提出相关政策启示搭建了理论基础。(2)提出衡量就业的产业结构的区域差异的综合性指标——区域差异系数,克服相对劳动生产率、产业结构偏离度和就业弹性难以通过一个指标对不同地区间就业的产业结构的总体差异进行比较的局限性,并运用就业的产业结构的区域差异系数、区位商等指标从不同角度分别对我国就业的产业结构的区域差异进行动态分析。(3)利用泰尔指数的分解,对我国就业的产业结构总体差异分解为东部、中部和西部三大区域之间的差异和三大区域内各省之间的差异,进一步从差异的区域构成和区域内差异的变化来揭示中国就业的产业结构区域差异的变化过程。(4)将收敛性分析理论引入到就业的产业结构的区域差异研究中,结合我国就业的产业结构的省际面板数据进行了σ收敛和β收敛检验,界定就业的产业结构收敛性的内涵,特征和收敛类型,并且测度收敛速度,以分析我国东部、中部和西部地区就业结构面板数据的敛散性特征。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present, the structural contradiction is still the main contradiction of the economic development in China, such as dual structure industrial structure the economic structure, etc. and structural adjustment become the main characteristics of economic operation at this stage. The employment structure optimization, the upgrading of the industrial structure and the dynamic adaptation of both has received high attention from China central government and the State Council. The recommendations of CPC Central Committee on the twelfth five-year plan of national economy and social development pointed out that economic development uncoordinated and unsustainable problems still outstanding at present, and the unreasonable industrial structure, total employment pressure and structural contradictions coexist. China’s employment structure imbalance not only displays in unreasonable proportion of employment of the three industries, as well as in unbalance of regional structure. As the quantity and the frequency in the labor migration among Chinese regions increases, the non-balanced development situation of regional employment structure and industrial structure has been shown on. Regional employment structure optimization and coordinated development with upgrading of the regional industrial structure comply with the demand of the objective laws. Demand of quality and quantity of regional labor in the regional industrial structure adjustment process needs to be adjusted constantly, so as to promote optimization and upgrading of the regional employment structure, and adapt to the dynamic matching to adjustment of regional industrial structure. Continuous upgrade of the regional industrial structure, inevitably require optimization of employment structure and sustainability of the collaborative matching. Dynamic adaptation of the regional employment structure optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure has become the most urgent practical problems need to resolve to the regional governments. According to the theoretical research, though there is a great amount of literatures related to employment structure in the domestic study, regional employment structure research mainly focus on the different data descriptive statistics and simple trend prediction of employment structure, relative lack of systematic and theoretical. With comprehensive analysis of relevant research achievements of domestic and foreign scholars, it can be found that the modern economic theory have not systematically study the inherent law of formation of regional differences in employment structure, and there are less systemic research of dynamic macro-matching mechanism of regional employment structure optimization and regional industrial structure upgrading. Therefore, studying industrial structure of employment from the regional differences perspective in the comprehensive and holistic premise have important significances to promote coordinated of regional industrial development and employment level, and find out the real factors hinder regional optimization of employment structure, and puts forward some measures.This paper uses the theories of labor economics, industry economics, regional economics, econometrics and the existing relevant references, choosing macro data of relevant statistical yearbook and micro data of field survey, using empirical analysis method such as the multiple regression models, the theory of structural change, convergence analysis, and so on. The contents of this dissertation are mainly consisted of the following parts:(1) through method and tool of the co-integration with structural change, make quantitative analysis on the industrial structure and employment structure of co-integration sex measurement using of unit root model, estimate structural mutation type of industrial structure of employment, search the ways of promoting both coordinated development of industrial structure and employment structure;(2) discuss the particularity of the regional employment structure evolution and regional difference in the process of evolution of employment structure based on classification research, and analyze influence factors and essential characteristic in evolution of employment structure, through location quotient of the employment structure, coefficient of regional difference variation, employment elasticity, the employment structure deviation and comparative analysis of regional relative labor productivity, to get the relevant economic policy implications;(3) make Theil index inspection, a convergence test and β convergence test to different types of regional employment structure in order to probe into the existence of convergence in employment of industrial structure among regions and convergence type;(4) analyze comprehensively the influence of all sorts of factors inside and outside on the labor force distribution among industries, and distinguish the influence factors and mechanism of structural changes of regional employment;(5) discuss the possibility of setting up an adjusting model for employment structure optimization which is advantageous to economic growth and job enlargement, and discuss direction and target of employment structure optimization in China, and puts forward the macro-control policies of local government, regional adjustment framework and specific measures.the main innovations of this dissertation are as follows:(1) describe China’s employment structure evolution process by the structure mutation model and check the stability trend and co-integration of the inter-industry transfer of labor, and search the cointegration relation between optimization of industrial structure of employment and economic growth, to establishes theoretic basic framework of relative policies;(2) first proposed the conception of Regional Difference Coefficient, which is a comprehensive index to measure regional difference of industrial structure of employment, overcome the limitation of relative labor productivity, degree of deviation and elasticity of employment;(3) By calculating Theil Index of the industrial structure of employment in China,overall difference is decomposed into the differrence between the eastern, central and western regions and the differences between provinces in their region, and uncover further the changes of Chinese industrial structure of employment from the regional structrue of differences and inner-regional difference;(4) bring the convergence analysis into the field of industrial structure of employment study, combined with test of ρ convergence and β convergence, and make further regional segmentation to the provinces of eastern, central and western areas, to analyze the convergence and divergence of panel data of Chinese employment structure, and then define the connotation, characteristics and types of convergence of the industrial structure and measure the convergence speed so as to build a theoretical foundation to put forward the relevant policy implications.更多还原