【作者】 李汉卿；

【导师】 汝宜红；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 供应链风险管理在经济全球化的今天越来越受到企业的重视,因为中断事件的发生让他们的供应链显得越来越脆弱。大规模的自然灾害,恐怖袭击,工厂火灾,大面积停电,金融危机或政治动乱都能导致供应链中断事件的发生。尽管中断风险发生的概率通常很低,但是大量的案例告诉我们,风险一旦发生将会给整个供应链造成严重的后果。本文运用定性和定量分析方法,通过分析中断风险下的供应链网络基本结构,提出中断风险下的供应链选址的流程和概念模型,对中断风险概率与供应链选址策略之间的关系进行分析,并给出在不同中断风险概率条件下,供应链网络结构应该如何采取哪些应对策略来减少损失。主要结论如下：(1)分别应用运筹学相关理论研究并提出了中断风险下的供应链选址模型(Supply chain location design problem under the disruption risk:SCRDP),讨论了中断风险下的供应链网络设施选址和不同类型设施之间的关系,分析中断风险概率和消费者的需求对选址产生的影响和表现。此模型可扩展性强,全文都是围绕这个模型层层深入。(2)基于概率论和不确定规划理论,提出风险阈值概念并通过模型推导和数据仿真得到在给出当中断风险概率足够高和相对低的情况下,供应链选址的不同最优设计策略。其中的风险发生概率都是随机生成或采用供应链场景构建工具测定的最坏状况。(3)分情况讨论了错误估计风险对供应链网络的危害程度。建立了模型求解供应链网络的脆性,分析了过剩产能、需求多样性和供应链脆性之间的关系。证明了当中断风险概率相对小时,中断风险概率不需要被精确地估计。只要设施加固成本影响因素和中断风险错误估计的失误不是特别巨大,风险对总成本的影响是很有限的。(4)前人的许多研究结果都认为长链策略有助于抵御中断风险的影响。本文证明了短链策略有时比长链策略更有优势,即当一个企业的供应链网络对环节中断更敏感时应该使用短链策略,当一个企业的供应链对节点中断更敏感时应该使用长链策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 Nowadays, the enterprises pay more attention on the supply chain risk management under the economic globalization environment. Because of the disruption events, the supply chain becomes increasingly weak. The large-scale natural disasters, terrorist attacks, factory fires, blackouts, the financial crisis or political unrest could lead to supply chain disruptions incident. Although the probability of the risk of interruption is usually low, but the large number of cases tells us that the risk of the event will result in serious consequences for the entire supply chain network.This dissertation uses both qualitative and quantitative analysis methods to make the supply chain network design under the disruption risk. We propose the network design progress and framework model. Also, the research analyzes the relationship between the probability of the disruption risk and supply chain network structure. The optimal solution solved by stress tests and other simulation methods and gives the insights about how the supply chain network structure which coping strategies should be taken to reduce losses under the probability of disruption risk in different conditions. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) Related to the application of operations research and theoretical studies, the dissertation proposes a model of supply chain network design under risk of disruption (Supply chain location design problem under the disruption risk:SCRDP). It discusses the supply chain network facility location and the impact and performance under the disruption risk probability and consumer generated on site.(2) The dissertation proposes the concept of risk thresholds based on probability theory and uncertainty theory. It gives different design strategies under the risk probability is high enough or relatively low based on the supply chain network data simulation. The probability of the risks occurring is random or stress tested by the worst scenarios supposed.(3) The dissertation discusses the harm of error estimate risk of to the supply chain network. We establish a model to measure the frangibility of the supply chain network and analyze the relationship between the excess capacity, demand diversity and supply chain frangibility. The research proves that it’s unnecessary to accurately estimate the risk probability when the disruption risk probability is relative low. As long as the gap between the facilities hardened cost factors and the error estimate risk are not particularly huge, the impact on the total cost of risk is very limited. It subverts the traditional risk probability estimates for the blind pursuit of accurate research.(4) Most of the previous studies have considered the impact of long-chain strategies to help combat the disruption risk. However, we prove short-chain strategy is sometimes an advantage than the long-chain strategy. That is, when a company’s supply chain network links are more sensitive to disruption risk, the short-chain strategy should be used. Conversely, when a company’s supply chain nodes are more sensitive to the disruption risk, the long chain strategy is better.更多还原